{"id":17645,"date":"2011-11-03T14:54:24","date_gmt":"2011-11-03T21:54:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=17645"},"modified":"2011-11-03T15:26:16","modified_gmt":"2011-11-03T22:26:16","slug":"nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Supply, Demand, and Prices All Sinking Together"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon.  Here&#8217;s their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">Housing activity during October shows mixed results with sales up, prices down, buyers still hesitant<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Befitting October and Halloween, last month&#8217;s housing activity had both tricks and treats. Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported solid gains in pending sales (up almost 21 percent from a year ago), consistent demand in many price ranges, a shortage of homes in a few categories, and some resurgence of move-up buyers.<\/p>\n<p>Despite those encouraging indicators, prices were down almost 11 percent area-wide compared to a year ago and brokers say there is persistent &#8220;hesitancy&#8221; in the market.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Why would anyone be hesitant to throw their entire financial fortunes into a massively expensive depreciating asset?  It&#8217;s a mystery to me!  Anyway&#8230;  We&#8217;ll wait until tomorrow&#8217;s reporting roundup to comment on their press release.  For now let&#8217;s get to the stats.  First up, the return of our &#8220;the bottom is in&#8221; median price chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Whoops!  I guess the bottom isn&#8217;t in, after all.  Who knew!<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">October 2011<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>7,174<\/td>\n<td>-7.6%<\/td>\n<td>-25.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,489<\/td>\n<td>-6.2%<\/td>\n<td>+13.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.47<\/td>\n<td>+1.0%<\/td>\n<td>-27.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,166<\/td>\n<td>+2.6%<\/td>\n<td>+19.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>3.31<\/td>\n<td>-9.9%<\/td>\n<td>-38.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$320,000<\/td>\n<td>-8.5%<\/td>\n<td>-14.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Nothing out of the ordinary in closed sales.  A bit of a decline from last month, but not outside of the range that we&#8217;ve seen in past years.  Certainly nothing to indicate a massive departure of jumbo-loan buyers pushed out of the market by the return of lower limits (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/09\/23\/how-much-of-the-seattle-area-market-will-be-affected-by-new-conforming-loan-limits\/\" title=\"How Much of the Seattle-Area Market Will be Affected by New Conforming Loan Limits?\">probably about 5% of the market<\/a>), which is the story the NWMLS is pushing to explain the big drop in the median price.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-10-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same trend as every other year, just lower that most years coming out of the summer.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory still falling, while sales began to retreat back toward flat.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Big drop this month, from -8.0% in September to -14.7% in October.  Yowza.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[17645]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-10-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>October 2011: $320,000<br \/>\nMay 2004: $320,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are the headlines from the Times and P-I:<br \/>\n<strong>Seattle Times:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2016682452_homesales04.html\" title=\"King County median home price drops 15 percent to $320,000 in October\">King County median home price drops 15 percent to $320,000 in October<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Seattle P-I:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/King-County-s-median-home-price-dips-below-2250714.php\" title=\"King County's median home price dips below $300,000\">King County&#8217;s median home price dips below $300,000<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Note that the Seattle Times is referring to the single-family median only, while the P-I is referring to the single-family + condo median, which is why the P-I&#8217;s stated figure is lower.<\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s their press release: Housing activity during October shows mixed results with sales up, prices down, buyers still hesitant Befitting October and Halloween, last month&#8217;s housing activity had both tricks and treats. Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported solid gains in pending sales (up almost&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-17645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Supply, Demand, and Prices All Sinking Together \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Supply, Demand, and Prices All Sinking Together \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"October market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s their press release: Housing activity during October shows mixed results with sales up, prices down, buyers still hesitant Befitting October and Halloween, last month&#8217;s housing activity had both tricks and treats. Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported solid gains in pending sales (up almost...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Supply, Demand, and Prices All Sinking Together \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10-600x436.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-11-03T21:54:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2011-11-03T22:26:16+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-10.png\",\"width\":\"915\",\"height\":\"666\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/11\/03\/nwmls-supply-demand-and-prices-all-sinking-together\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Supply, Demand, and Prices All Sinking Together\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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