{"id":18048,"date":"2011-12-05T16:41:01","date_gmt":"2011-12-06T00:41:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=18048"},"modified":"2011-12-05T16:41:01","modified_gmt":"2011-12-06T00:41:01","slug":"nwmls-median-price-still-down-double-digits-from-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/12\/05\/nwmls-median-price-still-down-double-digits-from-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Median Price Still Down Double Digits from 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon.  Here&#8217;s their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">Home sales outpace number of new listings for first time in five years<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Last month&#8217;s total number of mutually accepted offers was 22.4 percent higher than the same month a year ago. It also marked the first month since December 2006 that the number of pending sales surpassed the number of new listings (6,043), prompting discussions of possible inventory shortages.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Considering the fact that the NWMLS changed their definition of what counts as a &#8220;pending sale&#8221; in July 2008 to inflate the numbers (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/11\/recent-spike-in-pending-sales-due-to-change-in-definition\/\" title=\"Recent Spike in &quot;Pending&quot; Sales Due to Change in Definition?\">details here<\/a>), I fail to see how this is a headline-worthy acheivement.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, prices ticked up 0.5% from October to November, so the bottom must be in!  &#8230;right?<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-11-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Okay, on with the stats!<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">November 2011<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>6,487<\/td>\n<td>-9.6%<\/td>\n<td>-25.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,538<\/td>\n<td>+3.3%<\/td>\n<td>+40.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.35<\/td>\n<td>-8.6%<\/td>\n<td>-34.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,925<\/td>\n<td>-11.1%<\/td>\n<td>+18.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>3.37<\/td>\n<td>+1.7%<\/td>\n<td>-37.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$321,700<\/td>\n<td>+0.5%<\/td>\n<td>-10.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-11-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Slight uptick from October to November, which is rather unusual.  I&#8217;m betting it&#8217;s due to shifty NWMLS accounting and we see it drop hard next month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-11-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same old story there.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-11-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same thing we&#8217;ve seen all year.  Increasing sales, decreasing inventory.  And yet prices keep falling&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-11-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>An uptick, but still below -10%.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18048]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-11-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>November 2011: $321,700<br \/>\nMay 2004: $320,000<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the headlines from the Times (no story on the P-I yet):<br \/>\n<strong>Seattle Times:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2016942200_homesales06.html\" title=\"King County median home price drops 11 percent in November from year ago\">King County median home price drops 11 percent in November from year ago<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s their press release: Home sales outpace number of new listings for first time in five years Last month&#8217;s total number of mutually accepted offers was 22.4 percent higher than the same month a year ago. It also marked the first month since December 2006&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-18048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Median Price Still Down Double Digits from 2010 \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/12\/05\/nwmls-median-price-still-down-double-digits-from-2010\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Median Price Still Down Double Digits from 2010 \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"November market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. 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