{"id":18440,"date":"2012-01-04T13:39:21","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T21:39:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=18440"},"modified":"2012-01-04T14:07:45","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T22:07:45","slug":"nwmls-scottjacobi-bottom-calling-euphemism-contest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/04\/nwmls-scottjacobi-bottom-calling-euphemism-contest\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Scott\/Jacobi Bottom-Calling Euphemism Contest"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>December market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon.  Here&#8217;s their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">&#8220;Healthy marketplaces&#8221; emerging with shrinking inventory, favorable financing<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;All over we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge as the inventory levels drop,&#8221; said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. &#8220;As you get closer to the job centers of Seattle and Bellevue, the marketplace is looking strong again,&#8221; he added while expressing optimism for the coming year. &#8220;The outlook for 2012 is the continuation of a strengthening marketplace, especially in the more affordable to mid range priced homes.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nOB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, believes the market has undergone a shift. &#8220;Where we&#8217;ve been during the past year is a place of transition. It has been a slow recovery, but the housing market has finally turned a corner, albeit a soft one with some bumps along the way,&#8221; he commented.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Those claims that &#8220;we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge&#8221; and &#8220;the housing market has finally turned a corner&#8221; sound an awful lot thinly-veiled bottom calls to me.  Those tend to work out well for the bottom-caller.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2011-12-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Median Sold Price\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Okay, on with the stats!<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">December 2011<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>5,491<\/td>\n<td>-15.4%<\/td>\n<td>-25.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,466<\/td>\n<td>-4.7%<\/td>\n<td>+0.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.61<\/td>\n<td>+19.5%<\/td>\n<td>-19.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,592<\/td>\n<td>-17.3%<\/td>\n<td>+15.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>3.45<\/td>\n<td>+2.4%<\/td>\n<td>-35.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$320,000<\/td>\n<td>-0.5%<\/td>\n<td>-13.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHClosed2011-12-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Six of the last twelve years have seen an <em>increase<\/em> in closed sales between November and December, with the average change being +3.2%.  This year&#8217;s -4.7% change doesn&#8217;t exactly strike me as either an &#8220;emerging healthy marketplace&#8221; or like we&#8217;ve &#8220;turned a corner.&#8221;  But whatever.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHInventory2011-12-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same old story there.  Lots of trapped would-be sellers out there.  Pent-up supply!<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2011-12-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Whoops, the sales line took a huge tumble on this one, thanks to <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/01\/05\/nwmls-closed-sales-allegedly-spike-33-in-december\/\" title=\"NWMLS: Closed Sales Allegedly Spike 33% in December\">last year&#8217;s weird\/bogus December sales counts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHPrices2011-12-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Back down it goes.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[18440]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2011-12-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>December 2011: $320,000<br \/>\nMay 2004: $320,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are today&#8217;s headlines from the Times and the P-I:<br \/>\n<strong>Seattle Times:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2017157899_homesales05.html\" title=\"King County median home price falls by double digits again\">King County median home price falls by double digits again<\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Seattle P-I:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Home-sale-surge-abated-in-December-2441319.php\" title=\"Home sale surge abated in December\">Home sale surge abated in December<\/a><\/p>\n<p>There was no &#8220;home sale surge&#8221; in the first place, so I don&#8217;t know how it could have &#8220;abated,&#8221; but whatever.<\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s their press release: &#8220;Healthy marketplaces&#8221; emerging with shrinking inventory, favorable financing &#8220;All over we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge as the inventory levels drop,&#8221; said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott Real Estate. &#8220;As you get closer to the job&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-18440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Scott\/Jacobi Bottom-Calling Euphemism Contest \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/04\/nwmls-scottjacobi-bottom-calling-euphemism-contest\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Scott\/Jacobi Bottom-Calling Euphemism Contest \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"December market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s their press release: &#8220;Healthy marketplaces&#8221; emerging with shrinking inventory, favorable financing &#8220;All over we are seeing healthy marketplaces emerge as the inventory levels drop,&#8221; said J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. 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