{"id":19642,"date":"2012-04-06T05:00:27","date_gmt":"2012-04-06T12:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=19642"},"modified":"2012-04-06T08:07:44","modified_gmt":"2012-04-06T15:07:44","slug":"nwmls-record-low-inventory-prices-approach-a-flatline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/04\/06\/nwmls-record-low-inventory-prices-approach-a-flatline\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Record Low Inventory, Prices Approach a Flatline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>March market stats were released by the NWMLS late yesterday.  Here&#8217;s their press release:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">&#8220;Buyer Ready&#8221; Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The housing market in the Puget Sound region is pointing toward a sustainable recovery, according to several brokers who commented on the March activity report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8220;We are seeing a frenzied market in the Puget Sound region, especially in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, with an increase in sales activity in the high end,&#8221; remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. \u201cBecause of the shortage of homes for sale, combined with the sales surge being driven by job growth and historically low interest rates, if you are not &#8216;buyer ready&#8217; you may not get a house in today&#8217;s market,&#8221; he added.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nNoting stabilizing prices are \u201cforcing buyers to make offers that reflect a more balanced market,\u201d Northwest MLS director Darin Stenvers said house-hunters have taken note of rising rents, fewer choices and increasing fuel costs.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/02\/21\/here-comes-the-gas-prices-discussion-again\/\" title=\"Here Comes the Gas Prices Discussion Again\">I told you<\/a> that this gas prices nonsense would rear its head again.  In other news&#8230; It&#8217;s a <em><strong>FRENZY!<\/strong><\/em>  You know it has to be true because <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/22\/the-housing-market-sales-activity-pyramid\/\" title=\"The Housing Market &quot;Sales Activity Pyramid&quot;\">Pyramid Expert<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/01\/14\/friday-flashback-youre-not-going-to-see-the-prices-come-off-that-much\/\" title=\"Friday Flashback: &quot;You're not going to see the prices come off that much.&quot;\">J. Lennox Scott<\/a> says so!<\/p>\n<p>Before you get <em>too<\/em> worked up about the biggest February to March median price increase on record (previous high was a 6.4% gain in 2004), remember that prices have jumped up in a similar manner <em>every<\/em> spring throughout the downturn (albeit not as large):<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Median Sale Price\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Median Sale Price - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHMedian-TheBottom-2012-03-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Median Sale Price\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>With that, let&#8217;s get on with the stats!<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">March 2012<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,978<\/td>\n<td>-3.9%<\/td>\n<td>-34.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,642<\/td>\n<td>+33.5%<\/td>\n<td>+7.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.51<\/td>\n<td>+3.3%<\/td>\n<td>-11.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>3,018<\/td>\n<td>+24.2%<\/td>\n<td>+23.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.65<\/td>\n<td>-22.6%<\/td>\n<td>-47.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$330,000<\/td>\n<td>+7.1%<\/td>\n<td>-4.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-03-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Just the usual seasonal bump in sales, nothing to write home about, especially since they&#8217;re still quite a bit below every year before 2007. Just like our <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/04\/03\/march-stats-preview-new-foreclosure-surge-edition\/\" title=\"March Stats Preview: New Foreclosure Surge Edition\">monthly stats preview<\/a> predicted, the big year-over-year gain from February mostly vanished in March, dropping from over 22% to under 8%.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-03-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And we are now at an all-time low for March.  Previous record was in 2006 when there were just 5,100 homes on the market.  However, keep in mind that the <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/11\/recent-spike-in-pending-sales-due-to-change-in-definition\/\" title=\"Recent Spike in &quot;Pending&quot; Sales Due to Change in Definition?\">NWMLS did change the definition<\/a> of &#8220;active listing&#8221; between then and now, so it&#8217;s not apples to apples.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-03-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sales gains dropped off, but the steep drop in inventory just gets deeper.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-03-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another upward tick toward zero&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-03.png\" rel=\"lightbox[19642]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-03-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>March 2012: $330,000<br \/>\nJuly 2004: $329,950<\/p>\n<p>Here are the headlines from the Seattle Times and the Seattle P-I:<br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2017919576_homesales06.html\" title=\"King County home prices highest since September\">King County home prices highest since September<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Seattle-house-prices-up-again-3462799.php\" title=\"Seattle house prices up again\">Seattle house prices up again<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back Monday for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March market stats were released by the NWMLS late yesterday. Here&#8217;s their press release: &#8220;Buyer Ready&#8221; Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers. The housing market in the Puget Sound region is pointing toward a sustainable recovery, according to several brokers who commented on the March activity report from Northwest Multiple&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[196,6,521,459,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-19642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-johnlscott","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-scott","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Record Low Inventory, Prices Approach a Flatline \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/04\/06\/nwmls-record-low-inventory-prices-approach-a-flatline\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Record Low Inventory, Prices Approach a Flatline \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"March market stats were released by the NWMLS late yesterday. Here&#8217;s their press release: &#8220;Buyer Ready&#8221; Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers. 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Here&#8217;s their press release: &#8220;Buyer Ready&#8221; Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers. 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