{"id":20271,"date":"2012-05-25T09:00:10","date_gmt":"2012-05-25T16:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=20271"},"modified":"2012-05-25T16:06:22","modified_gmt":"2012-05-25T23:06:22","slug":"friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here’s a delightfully hyperbolic piece from June 2006, about a year before Seattle’s peak pricing (but eight months after sales began<\/a> declining year-over-year<\/a>). By this time most of the rest of the country had figured out the boom was over, but remember, Seattle was special!<\/p>\n

Blaine Weber, half of the big-time local architecture team of Weber + Thompson (designers of Fifteen Twenty-One and other high-profile local towers<\/a>) penned this delightful piece for the Seattle Daily Journal of Commerce: Are we ready for Seattle’s pivotal moment in history?<\/a><\/p>\n

Downtown Seattle is about to undergo the most significant change since Henry Yesler built his sawmill in 1853.<\/p>\n

\"600
600 Wall Street, 256 units<\/div>\n

The recent adoption of a new downtown zoning code that incents taller residential towers comes as Seattle witnesses a confluence of trends and drivers that will bring thousands of residents to new high-density homes in our urban center. According to local economists, Seattle’s strong economy and job growth projections are accelerating. This will be a defining moment for the future of downtown Seattle.<\/p>\n

10,000 residential units?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Suddenly, a proliferation of new high-rise residential tower projects is on the books, in for permits, or under construction. In downtown Seattle, there are 13 projects already under construction, with another 49 proposed. If all of these projects proceed to construction, over 8,000 new residential units will be built by 2010 in the most rapid expansion of high-density development in the history of our city. It is anticipated that this number could easily grow to 10,000 new units as additional projects are queued up to meet continued demand.<\/p>\n

Supply and demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

The question that many are asking is: Will there be enough people moving into downtown to fill all of these towers? According to local economist Matthew Gardener, the market could readily absorb up to 2,500 new units per year. Based on a current assessment of when projects are slated for occupancy, the market will have difficulty providing this supply for the next couple of years because the typical high-rise tower takes three to four years to design and build.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Rich stuff. He goes on to support his claims of massive demand with three major points: “Restrictive land-use rules,” “road rage,” and “seeking new life-styles.” Yes, “road rage.” Seriously.<\/p>\n

Of the three projects pictured in the article—Fifteen Twenty-One, 600 Wall Street, and 1800 Terry Avenue—only one was actually built. I wonder how many of the “8,000 new residential units by 2010” really ended up materializing? I bet less than half.<\/p>\n

Be sure to catch the rest of the articles in the entire special “Urban Development” section of the June 2006 Journal<\/a>, too. Lots of great stuff in there, including an article on condo development in Tacoma<\/a> that declares to the skeptics that “the doubts are unwarranted.” Well okay then.<\/p>\n

Here’s what I had to say about this article at the time<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see how forking over half a million or more for a tiny box of a home downtown is the gateway to a “lifestyle that is less stressful.” The whole article is very pie-in-the-sky, so take from it what you will.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Guess it wasn’t just me.<\/p>\n

The purpose of our Friday Flashback series<\/a> is to remind people why it’s never a good idea to base your home purchase decisions on the word of someone with a vested financial interest in selling as many homes as possible for as much as possible, no matter what. If you’ve got a good example of local home salespeople or other industry shills on record making fools of themselves in the years before the bubble burst, shoot me an email<\/a>.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here’s a delightfully hyperbolic piece from June 2006, about a year before Seattle’s peak pricing (but eight months after sales began declining year-over-year). By this time most of the rest of the country had figured out the boom was over, but remember, Seattle was special! Blaine Weber, half of the big-time local architecture team of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[206],"tags":[639,879,638,880],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-20271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-features","tag-639","tag-architect","tag-friday-flashback","tag-weber"],"yoast_head":"\nFriday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Here’s a delightfully hyperbolic piece from June 2006, about a year before Seattle’s peak pricing (but eight months after sales began declining year-over-year). By this time most of the rest of the country had figured out the boom was over, but remember, Seattle was special! Blaine Weber, half of the big-time local architecture team of...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/\",\"name\":\"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-05-25T16:00:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-05-25T23:06:22+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg\",\"width\":\"200\",\"height\":\"394\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010!\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/\",\"http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble","twitter_description":"Here’s a delightfully hyperbolic piece from June 2006, about a year before Seattle’s peak pricing (but eight months after sales began declining year-over-year). By this time most of the rest of the country had figured out the boom was over, but remember, Seattle was special! Blaine Weber, half of the big-time local architecture team of...","twitter_image":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/","name":"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010! \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg","datePublished":"2012-05-25T16:00:10+00:00","dateModified":"2012-05-25T23:06:22+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Downtown_600Wall_web.jpg","width":"200","height":"394"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/friday-flashback-10000-new-condos-coming-by-2010\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Friday Flashback: 10,000 New Condos Coming By 2010!"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.","sameAs":["http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/","http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless","https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim"],"url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6wh0F-5gX","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20271\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20271"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=20271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}