{"id":20724,"date":"2012-07-05T13:34:27","date_gmt":"2012-07-05T20:34:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=20724"},"modified":"2012-07-05T13:34:27","modified_gmt":"2012-07-05T20:34:27","slug":"nwmls-never-mind-the-mix-home-prices-are-soaring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/07\/05\/nwmls-never-mind-the-mix-home-prices-are-soaring\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Never Mind the Mix, Home Prices are Soaring!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>June market stats were released by the NWMLS this afternoon.  First up, here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"Sales volume, home prices around Washington state rising amid inventory shortages in many areas\">Sales volume, home prices around Washington state rising amid inventory shortages in many areas<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>June may have been cooler and wetter than normal, but weather did not seem to deter home buyers and sellers around western Washington. &#8220;Close-in Seattle neighborhoods have been experiencing the most intense buyer activity since 2006,&#8221; one broker remarked.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I feel it is worth noting that when prices were falling year after year, &#8220;bad weather&#8221; was frequently an excuse given by the NWMLS and its members for the decline.<\/p>\n<p>While the press release headline touts &#8220;rising prices,&#8221; they do allude to the dramatic change in the mix of what&#8217;s selling&#8230; <em>twelve<\/em> paragraphs in:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>MLS director Diedre Haines, regional managing broker in Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain, said bank owned (REO) property listings are nearly nonexistent compared to a year ago&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The share of sales each month that are bank owned homes is absolutely plummeting, falling to its lowest point since May 2010.  This is no doubt the primary driving force behind the dramatic increase we&#8217;ve seen in the median price over the last few months.  Home prices are indeed going up, but when you account for this change the increase is much less severe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHREOPct2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHREOPct2012-06-600x435.png\" alt=\"Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">June 2012<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>5,091<\/td>\n<td>+1.0%<\/td>\n<td>-37.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,117<\/td>\n<td>+3.0%<\/td>\n<td>+12.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.32<\/td>\n<td>-0.9%<\/td>\n<td>-20.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,776<\/td>\n<td>-6.9%<\/td>\n<td>+16.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.83<\/td>\n<td>+8.5%<\/td>\n<td>-46.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$380,000<\/td>\n<td>+5.0%<\/td>\n<td>+10.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-06-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If 2012 is like most recent years, June will probably be the peak for closed sales.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-06-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Another increase, but just barely.  Still at record low levels of on-market home selection.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-06-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same basic story we&#8217;ve been looking at for a year.  Definitely a seller&#8217;s market as far as supply and demand goes.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-06-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Double digits, thanks mostly to the big change in the sales mix mentioned above, with far fewer bank-owned homes selling this year than last.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[20724]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-06-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>June 2012: $380,000<br \/>\nJuly 2005: $375,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are the Times and P-I headlines.<br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2018609970_homesales06.html\" title=\"King County median home price up 10 percent from year ago\">King County median home price up 10 percent from year ago<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/King-County-house-prices-rise-by-double-digits-3686368.php\" title=\"King County house prices rise by double digits\">King County house prices rise by double digits<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>June market stats were released by the NWMLS this afternoon. First up, here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: Sales volume, home prices around Washington state rising amid inventory shortages in many areas. June may have been cooler and wetter than normal, but weather did not seem to deter home buyers and sellers around western&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-20724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Never Mind the Mix, Home Prices are Soaring! \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/07\/05\/nwmls-never-mind-the-mix-home-prices-are-soaring\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Never Mind the Mix, Home Prices are Soaring! \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"June market stats were released by the NWMLS this afternoon. 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