{"id":21301,"date":"2012-08-27T08:00:37","date_gmt":"2012-08-27T15:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=21301"},"modified":"2012-08-27T08:09:08","modified_gmt":"2012-08-27T15:09:08","slug":"people-stink-at-predicting-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/08\/27\/people-stink-at-predicting-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"People Stink at Predicting Interest Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last summer we ran a poll that asked the question &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/06\/26\/poll-when-will-interest-rates-first-rise-back-above-6\/\" title=\"Poll: When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?\">When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Here are the results of that poll:<br \/>\n<div id=\"polls-202\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<div id=\"polls-202-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li>Before 2012 <small>(6%, 7 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 6%;\" title=\"Before 2012 (6% | 7 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>1st Half of 2012 <small>(13%, 16 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 13%;\" title=\"1st Half of 2012 (13% | 16 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>2nd Half of 2012 <small>(18%, 22 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 18%;\" title=\"2nd Half of 2012 (18% | 22 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>2013 <small>(20%, 25 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 20%;\" title=\"2013 (20% | 25 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>2014 or 2015 <small>(27%, 34 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 27%;\" title=\"2014 or 2015 (27% | 34 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>2016 to 2021 <small>(10%, 13 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 10%;\" title=\"2016 to 2021 (10% | 13 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>Later than 2021 <small>(6%, 8 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 6%;\" title=\"Later than 2021 (6% | 8 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Total Voters: <strong>125<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<\/div>\n\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_202_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"ff64de2af5\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>With the rate for a 30-year fixed currently averaging 3.69%, it&#8217;s rather startling that 36% of you believed that interest rates would rise above six percent before the end of this year.  That&#8217;s a pretty large portion of people with expectations that differ fairly dramatically from reality.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s another look at rates going all the way back to 1971, to put today&#8217;s rates in context:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/interest-rates-long_2012-08.png\" title=\"Weekly Conventional Mortgage Rates\" rel=\"lightbox[21301]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/interest-rates-long_2012-08-600x436.png\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"Weekly Conventional Mortgage Rates - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Weekly Conventional Mortgage Rates\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I certainly agree that <em>eventually<\/em> rates will climb back up above six percent, but pretty much everybody has been using the &#8220;rates are going to climb any day now&#8221; line for the last <em>three years<\/em> (at least)&mdash;all while rates have continued to <em>fall<\/em>.  At this point I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if rates don&#8217;t go above six percent for at least another four years.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;d love to hear from some of you who chose one of the first three options in the summer 2011 rates poll.  What were you basing your expectation on, and have those expectations changed?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last summer we ran a poll that asked the question &#8220;When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?&#8221; Here are the results of that poll: With the rate for a 30-year fixed currently averaging 3.69%, it&#8217;s rather startling that 36% of you believed that interest rates would rise above six percent before the end&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[206],"tags":[665,223,14],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-21301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-features","tag-interest","tag-interest-rates","tag-predictions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>People Stink at Predicting Interest Rates \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/08\/27\/people-stink-at-predicting-interest-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"People Stink at Predicting Interest Rates \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Last summer we ran a poll that asked the question &#8220;When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?&#8221; 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