{"id":21379,"date":"2012-09-05T13:28:40","date_gmt":"2012-09-05T20:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=21379"},"modified":"2012-09-05T14:57:51","modified_gmt":"2012-09-05T21:57:51","slug":"nwmls-summer-of-sameness-sustained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/05\/nwmls-summer-of-sameness-sustained\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Summer of Sameness Sustained"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon.  Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers' positions\">September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers&#8217; positions<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Pending sales, closed sales and prices all increased in August compared to a year ago, according to the latest figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Those key indicators, coupled with the persistent shortage of inventory, prompted one industry leader to declare the market has flipped.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8220;The biggest story this year is that the market has flipped,&#8221; proclaimed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He attributes the shift to a seller&#8217;s market in most areas and prices to a combination of factors, including historically low interest rates, lower adjusted prices, the shortage of inventory, an elevated number of investors, and the return of local home buyers.<\/p>\n<p>Northwest MLS directors OB Jacobi and Joe Spencer are similarly encouraged by the latest numbers, mentioning steady momentum, rising consumer confidence, low inventory, a pickup of activity in new construction, and improving prospects for homeowners who are underwater.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>There wasn&#8217;t anything terribly surprising in this month&#8217;s data, just more of the same trends we have been seeing all year: low inventory, increasing sales, prices inching up.  Inventory actually did tick up just a bit, but barely enough to even mention.<\/p>\n<p>All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">August 2012<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>5,103<\/td>\n<td>+0.7%<\/td>\n<td>-36.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,162<\/td>\n<td>+2.0%<\/td>\n<td>+21.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.29<\/td>\n<td>+2.8%<\/td>\n<td>-9.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,623<\/td>\n<td>+2.4%<\/td>\n<td>+12.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.95<\/td>\n<td>-1.7%<\/td>\n<td>-43.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$378,000<\/td>\n<td>+0.7%<\/td>\n<td>+8.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[21379]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-08-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>July to August is mixed&mdash;some years up, some down.  The slight increase this year was well within the normal range.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[21379]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-08-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Very slight uptick, but we&#8217;ve basically been flat since April.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[21379]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-08-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same story yet again.  Sales up, listings down.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[21379]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-08-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Still on the rise.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[21379]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-08-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>August 2012: $378,000<br \/>\nJuly 2005: $375,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are the Times and P-I headlines.<br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2019072503_homesalesaugustxml.html\" title=\"Local home sales volume, prices rise in August\">Local home sales volume, prices rise in August<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Seattle-area-home-shoppers-find-slim-pickings-3842151.php\" title=\"Seattle-area home shoppers find slim pickings\">Seattle-area home shoppers find slim pickings<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>August market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers&#8217; positions. Pending sales, closed sales and prices all increased in August compared to a year ago, according to the latest figures from Northwest Multiple Listing&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-21379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Summer of Sameness Sustained \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/05\/nwmls-summer-of-sameness-sustained\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Summer of Sameness Sustained \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"August market stats were published by the NWMLS this afternoon. Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers&#8217; positions. 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His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers&#8217; positions. 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