{"id":21562,"date":"2012-09-24T12:00:12","date_gmt":"2012-09-24T19:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=21562"},"modified":"2012-09-24T14:05:47","modified_gmt":"2012-09-24T21:05:47","slug":"will-local-incomes-climb-or-fall-in-the-coming-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/24\/will-local-incomes-climb-or-fall-in-the-coming-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Local Incomes Climb or Fall in the Coming Years?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A few of you took issue with the assertion I made in Thursday’s post<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Eventually [mortgage interest rates]<\/span> will go up, but it will probably be a gradual climb, and by the time they get to 6%, incomes will also be higher.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Here are a few examples of your criticisms.<\/p>\n

From Pegasus<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Putting your faith in liars and idiots can be hazardous to your financial health. Predicting that by the time mortgage rates get back to 6% incomes will be higher can also be. Kind of like smoking hopium.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From Kary<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Not sure I’d agree with either of those claims as being all that certain. I do agree everyone was predicting rates would go up.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From blurtman<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The higher income statement ain\u2019t necssarily true. Especially in this age of race to the bottom, where the average Chinese wage earner and American wage earner may meet.<\/p>\n

The trend is for falling wages, but more importantly, a falling standard of living. There is absolutely no reason why wages have to rise in an inflationary environment. Pure hokum.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Also blurtman<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Tim, I am calling you out for bullshat.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I’m surprised that stating that incomes will be higher a few years from now than they are today was such a contentious prediction. Obviously nothing is certain, but I still believe that in the most likely scenario incomes will rise over the next few years.<\/p>\n

For some context, here’s a plot of median household incomes in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties back through 1989, courtesy of the Washington State Office of Financial Management<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Local incomes fell during the post-housing-bubble recession… for two years. By 2011 they had already begun to head back up. After the dot-com bust incomes only fell for a year in Snohomish and Pierce, and didn’t even dip at all in King.<\/p>\n

Unless the economy totally and completely collapses, I don’t see any reason to believe that the long-term trend of steadily increasing household incomes (~2.8% per year on average) will not continue over the next few years.<\/p>\n

If you have a compelling, coherent case to make that incomes will turn south again, I’d love to hear it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A few of you took issue with the assertion I made in Thursday’s post: Eventually [mortgage interest rates] will go up, but it will probably be a gradual climb, and by the time they get to 6%, incomes will also be higher. Here are a few examples of your criticisms. From Pegasus: Putting your faith…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[62,559],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-21562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-income","tag-ofm"],"yoast_head":"\nWill Local Incomes Climb or Fall in the Coming Years? \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/24\/will-local-incomes-climb-or-fall-in-the-coming-years\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Will Local Incomes Climb or Fall in the Coming Years? \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A few of you took issue with the assertion I made in Thursday’s post: Eventually [mortgage interest rates] will go up, but it will probably be a gradual climb, and by the time they get to 6%, incomes will also be higher. 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