{"id":24627,"date":"2012-11-05T14:21:49","date_gmt":"2012-11-05T22:21:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=24627"},"modified":"2012-11-05T16:47:56","modified_gmt":"2012-11-06T00:47:56","slug":"nwmls-inventory-hit-a-record-low-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/11\/05\/nwmls-inventory-hit-a-record-low-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Inventory Hit a Record Low in October"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning.  Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\" title=\"Housing recovery continues with prices rising as inventory dips to lowest level since 2006\">Housing recovery continues with prices rising as inventory dips to lowest level since 2006<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The shortage of inventory is helping propel prices. J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, commented on the correlation of sharply reduced inventory and rising prices. \u201cThe rise in prices is derived from seasonally strong sales activity in a shortage of inventory market,\u201d he remarked.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nothing too earth-shattering this month, but the &#8220;rise in prices&#8221; is not really as much of a rise as it seems, as I&#8217;ll explain shortly.<\/p>\n<p>All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">October 2012<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,304<\/td>\n<td>-14.0%<\/td>\n<td>-40.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,981<\/td>\n<td>+10.2%<\/td>\n<td>+33.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.08<\/td>\n<td>-16.6%<\/td>\n<td>-26.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,676<\/td>\n<td>+10.3%<\/td>\n<td>+23.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.61<\/td>\n<td>-22.1%<\/td>\n<td>-51.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$370,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.3%<\/td>\n<td>+15.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[24627]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHClosed2012-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Somewhat odd that sales bumped up between September and October, but not unexpected since it&#8217;s exactly what we saw in <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/11\/02\/october-stats-preview-late-sales-leap-edition\/\" title=\"October Stats Preview: Late Sales Leap Edition\">the Stats Preview last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[24627]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHInventory2012-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory has never been this low as far back as I have reliable data from the NWMLS (January 2000).  Expect new lows again in November and December.  Here&#8217;s hoping that next year things go back to the normal seasonal pattern of gaining inventory in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[24627]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2012-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Same story yet again.  Sales up, listings down.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[24627]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHPrices2012-10-600x409.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"409\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Big jump, not because home prices surged in any way this year, but because <em>last<\/em> year they plunged learly $30k from $349,550 in September to $320,000 in October.  If you care a lot about what happened to home prices a year ago, then a sudden jump to a 16% year-over-year increase in the median price is the biggest news in today&#8217;s data, despite being the most predictable, least surprising bit.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-10.png\" rel=\"lightbox[24627]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2012-10-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>October 2012: $370,000<br \/>\nMay 2005: $375,500<\/p>\n<p>Here are the Times and P-I headlines.<br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2019611317_homesalesxml.html\" title=\"King County house prices rise 16 percent year-over-year\">King County house prices rise 16 percent year-over-year<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/mount-rainier\/article\/Home-prices-post-biggest-jump-in-six-years-4010096.php\" title=\"Home prices post biggest jump in six years\">Home prices post biggest jump in six years<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. Here&#8217;s what they have to say about their numbers: Housing recovery continues with prices rising as inventory dips to lowest level since 2006. The shortage of inventory is helping propel prices. J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, commented on&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-24627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Inventory Hit a Record Low in October \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/11\/05\/nwmls-inventory-hit-a-record-low-in-october\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Inventory Hit a Record Low in October \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"October market stats were published by the NWMLS this morning. 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