{"id":26610,"date":"2013-05-31T14:38:08","date_gmt":"2013-05-31T21:38:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=26610"},"modified":"2013-09-04T11:19:34","modified_gmt":"2013-09-04T18:19:34","slug":"march-2013-case-shiller-potpourri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2013\/05\/31\/march-2013-case-shiller-potpourri\/","title":{"rendered":"March 2013 Case-Shiller Potpourri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Before we put away the Case-Shiller data for another month, let&#8217;s check in on a few of our alternative charts.<\/p>\n<p>First up, let&#8217;s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard.  <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/28\/case-shiller-visualizing-month-to-month-price-weakness\/\" title=\"Case-Shiller: Visualizing Month-to-Month Price Weakness\">Here&#8217;s the original post introducing this chart<\/a> if you&#8217;d like more details.  Click the image below for a super-wide version with the data back through 2000.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-Cities-MoM-wide_2013-03.png\" title=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses\" rel=\"lightbox[26610]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-Cities-MoM_2013-03-600x435.png\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>2013 saw the strongest March since 2005, with 18 of 20 cities experiencing month-over-month price gains.  January and February weren&#8217;t quite as strong, but overall the first quarter was roughly on par with 2006 for month-over-month price increases.<\/p>\n<p>Next up, the second derivative.  For an introduction to this particular view, <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2012\/03\/08\/second-derivative-suggests-imminent-price-stabilization\/\" title=\"Second Derivative Suggests Imminent Price Stabilization\">hit the original post from March<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-2nd-Derivative-annotated_2013-03.png\" title=\"Seattle Case-Shiller HPI 1st &#038; 2nd Derivatives\" rel=\"lightbox[26610]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-2nd-Derivative-annotated_2013-03-600x435.png\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"Seattle Case-Shiller HPI 1st &#038; 2nd Derivatives - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Seattle Case-Shiller HPI 1st &#038; 2nd Derivatives\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The second derivative has taken a bit of a dip in the last year, but is still right around the 1% level.  Anything above zero indicates that price increases are getting stronger each month, so this is still a strong signal.  I&#8217;ve been expecting this to move back down toward zero during 2013.  It looks like that will not happen until the second half of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, here&#8217;s a look at the number of cities that are experiencing second derivative gains or losses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-Cities-YoYoM-wide_2013-03.png\" title=\"Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses\" rel=\"lightbox[26610]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Case-Shiller-Cities-YoYoM_2013-03-600x435.png\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This one is interesting, because it seems to be showing signs of some initial price weakness.  In 2011 and 2012 the number of cities experiencing second derivative gains increased throughout the first quarter, but this year it&#8217;s fallen from 20 in January to 17 in February to 15 in March.  This could be an early sign of price stabilization to come in the next year.  I&#8217;ll definitely be keeping my eye on this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Before we put away the Case-Shiller data for another month, let&#8217;s check in on a few of our alternative charts. First up, let&#8217;s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard. Here&#8217;s the original post introducing this chart if you&#8217;d like more details. Click the image below for a super-wide version with the data back&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26613,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: March 2013 Case-Shiller Potpourri http:\/\/wp.me\/pe2Bv-6Vc","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[86,845,817,846],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-26610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-case-shiller","tag-derivative","tag-month-over-month","tag-quant"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>March 2013 Case-Shiller Potpourri \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2013\/05\/31\/march-2013-case-shiller-potpourri\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"March 2013 Case-Shiller Potpourri \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Before we put away the Case-Shiller data for another month, let&#8217;s check in on a few of our alternative charts. 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