{"id":29227,"date":"2014-08-06T13:33:00","date_gmt":"2014-08-06T20:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=29227"},"modified":"2014-08-06T20:23:59","modified_gmt":"2014-08-07T03:23:59","slug":"nwmls-inventory-inches-up-as-home-prices-near-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/08\/06\/nwmls-inventory-inches-up-as-home-prices-near-peak\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Inventory Inches Up as Home Prices Near Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>July market stats were published by the NWMLS today.  Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"Western Washington housing market in &quot;recovery mode&quot; but some brokers say it's still not at full potential\">Western Washington housing market in &#8220;recovery mode&#8221; but some brokers say it&#8217;s still not at full potential<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>More sellers listed their homes for sale during July compared to a year ago, but brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service say inventory remains &#8220;well below&#8221; what is considered to be a balanced market. Last month&#8217;s pending sales rose slightly from a year ago while prices system-wide increased nearly 6.3 percent.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Some agents and firms are beginning to feel the summer doldrums, while others are experiencing a definite increase in activity,&#8221; observed Diedre Haines, regional managing broker-Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain. Haines, a director with Northwest MLS, described price increases as &#8220;healthy, not exorbitant,&#8221; adding, &#8220;Thankfully we are not seeing signs of a bubble and instead are seeing realistic appreciation.&#8221; Nevertheless, she suggested sellers who overprice their properties can face disappointing consequences.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>How do you know when the real estate market might be facing a bubble? Wait for agents to say &#8220;there are no signs of a bubble.&#8221; I&#8217;d say that over two years of home price appreciation in excess of five percent is definitely cause for some concern on that front. I&#8217;ll be exploring this in more detail later this month as we dive into the fundamentals once again.<\/p>\n<p>For now, it&#8217;s on with our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">July 2014<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,862<\/td>\n<td>+9.2%<\/td>\n<td>+6.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,666<\/td>\n<td>+7.7%<\/td>\n<td>+0.7%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.35<\/td>\n<td>-4.5%<\/td>\n<td>+3.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,901<\/td>\n<td>-8.6%<\/td>\n<td>-3.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.82<\/td>\n<td>+1.4%<\/td>\n<td>+5.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$468,000<\/td>\n<td>+3.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Inventory continues to inch up, and looks to be on track to beat 2012 in August. Closed sales just barely beat last year&#8217;s levels while pending sales dipped year-over-year. Meanwhile, prices hit their highest July level since the peak in 2007.<\/p>\n<p>Median Price June to July 2013: +1.5%<br \/>\nMedian Price June to July 2014: +3.2%<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29227]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-07-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sales moved up from June, but not by quite as much as they did last year (+7.7 percent vs. +9.3 percent). However, the increase was still enough to keep sales just barely above last year&#8217;s levels.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29227]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-07-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory continues its slow climb, and looks like it may surpass the 2012 level as early as this month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29227]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-07-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not much change from last month, but things did just slightly turn back in buyers&#8217; favor.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29227]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-07-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The year-over-year growth in median price bumped up a bit this month to its highest level since February. We&#8217;re currently sitting at 26 straight months of year-over-year home price gains in excess of five percent.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-07.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29227]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-07-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>July 2014: $468,000<br \/>\nMay 2007: $469,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are the articles from the Seattle Times and P-I:<\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2024256674_homesalesjulyxml.html\" title=\"King County home prices up 7.8 percent for the year\">King County home prices up 7.8 percent for the year<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Home-supply-prices-rose-in-July-5672655.php\" title=\"Home supply, prices rose in July\">Home supply, prices rose in July<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: Western Washington housing market in &#8220;recovery mode&#8221; but some brokers say it&#8217;s still not at full potential. More sellers listed their homes for sale during July compared to a year ago, but brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service say&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29233,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Inventory Inches Up as Home Prices Near Peak http:\/\/wp.me\/pe2Bv-7Bp","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-29227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Inventory Inches Up as Home Prices Near Peak \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/08\/06\/nwmls-inventory-inches-up-as-home-prices-near-peak\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Inventory Inches Up as Home Prices Near Peak \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"July market stats were published by the NWMLS today. Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: Western Washington housing market in &#8220;recovery mode&#8221; but some brokers say it&#8217;s still not at full potential. 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