{"id":29539,"date":"2014-10-10T12:00:32","date_gmt":"2014-10-10T19:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=29539"},"modified":"2014-10-10T12:29:11","modified_gmt":"2014-10-10T19:29:11","slug":"friday-flashback-market-returning-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/10\/friday-flashback-market-returning-normal\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Flashback: “The Market is Returning to Normal”"},"content":{"rendered":"

After mentioning how much the real estate reporting in the Seattle Times has improved, I thought it would be fun to take a look at a classic piece from November 2006, less than a year before home prices in the Seattle area peaked (emphasis mine)<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Home sales drop, not prices<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Prospective homebuyers who’ve been frustrated by too much competition for too few homes \u2014 your time is now<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

But don’t expect to find widespread price breaks, because home prices are up.
\n…
\nIncreasing inventory is giving buyers more clout, said Lennox Scott, chairman and chief executive of John L. Scott Real Estate.<\/p>\n

“We’re adjusting from a frenzied market back down to a strong market<\/strong>,” Scott said. “Buyers have selection.”
\n…
\n“I’m amazed the market was basically on steroids for as long as it was,” [Windermere Ballard assistant manager Bob]<\/span> Melvey said. “It makes sense it’s going to have to take a rest. But even with this absorption rate, it’s not as if the market has tanked and the sky is falling<\/strong>.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It’s a two for one deal! Classic Elizabeth Rhodes and<\/em> classic J. Lennox Scott.<\/p>\n

This article is built 100 percent on data talking points and quotes from home salespeople. Zero input from any serious economists, academics, or researchers, just a very lightly rehashed press release. It was an extreme disservice to Seattle Times readers at the time, but hey at least we get a laugh out of it eight years later.<\/p>\n

Aubrey Cohen’s article about the same data in the Seattle P-I was considerably better. I can’t find the original article on the P-I website anymore, but here’s part that I quoted in my post at the time<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a buyer\u2019s market, if buyer\u2019s loaded.<\/strong><\/p>\n

More and more home sellers are chasing fewer and fewer buyers, but those who did buy in October paid more than buyers did the month or year before that, according to housing statistics released Tuesday.
\n…
\n\u201cThey keep saying it\u2019s a buyers market,\u201d he said while looking over a Montlake home last month. \u201cPrices haven\u2019t changed. I don\u2019t see any reduction.\u201d<\/p>\n

Zand, who is planning to move back to the area from San Jose, Calif., said prices have declined there.
\n…
\nThe statistics show the market is returning to normal, said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Glenn Crellin’s analysis at the time wasn’t all that on point in my opinion, but at least Aubrey talked to buyers and an economist, not just salespeople.<\/p>\n

Here’s what I had to say about all of this at the time:<\/p>\n

Is it possible that while the housing market collapses in the rest of the country, Seattle just \u201creturns to normal\u201d? Sure, anything is possible I suppose. However, with the inventory still increasing YOY at a faster rate every month, and sales still on the decline, I have to wonder what mysterious force is going to stop these trends once the market has become \u201cnormal\u201d?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So much for that orderly return to normal.<\/p>\n

It would be good keep all of this in mind as you think about the current market frenzy…<\/p>\n

The purpose of our Friday Flashback series<\/a> is to remind people why it’s never a good idea to base your home purchase decisions on the word of someone with a vested financial interest in selling as many homes as possible for as much as possible, no matter what. If you’ve got a good example of local home salespeople or other industry shills on record making fools of themselves in the years before the bubble burst, shoot me an email<\/a>.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After mentioning how much the real estate reporting in the Seattle Times has improved, I thought it would be fun to take a look at a classic piece from November 2006, less than a year before home prices in the Seattle area peaked (emphasis mine). Home sales drop, not prices Prospective homebuyers who’ve been frustrated…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: Friday Flashback: \"The Market is Returning to Normal\"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[206],"tags":[639,18,127,638,3,459,19,31],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-29539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-features","tag-639","tag-cohen","tag-crellin","tag-friday-flashback","tag-rhodes","tag-scott","tag-seattle_pi","tag-seattle_times"],"yoast_head":"\nFriday Flashback: "The Market is Returning to Normal" \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/10\/friday-flashback-market-returning-normal\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Friday Flashback: "The Market is Returning to Normal" \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"After mentioning how much the real estate reporting in the Seattle Times has improved, I thought it would be fun to take a look at a classic piece from November 2006, less than a year before home prices in the Seattle area peaked (emphasis mine). 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