{"id":29594,"date":"2014-10-07T08:00:08","date_gmt":"2014-10-07T15:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=29594"},"modified":"2014-10-11T00:37:31","modified_gmt":"2014-10-11T07:37:31","slug":"nwmls-housing-market-slows-tightens-into-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/07\/nwmls-housing-market-slows-tightens-into-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Housing Market Tightens, Slows Into Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>September market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday.  Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"Home Sales Stay Strong but Prices Approaching &quot;Affordability Ceiling&quot; for Some Buyers\">Home Sales Stay Strong but Prices Approaching &quot;Affordability Ceiling&quot; for Some Buyers<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Pending sales of homes around Western Washington  surged more than 13 percent in September compared to a year ago, and listing activity picked up slightly, fueling both broker optimism and words of advice for sellers.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nCommenting on September&#8217;s activity, industry veteran Gary O&#8217;Leyar said he expects the Greater Puget Sound real estate market will maintain a &#8220;healthy glow&#8221; in 2015 so long as there is no radical increase in interest rates. &#8220;I foresee a general leveling off in overall market activity as prices approach the affordability ceiling for many buyers,&#8221; remarked O&#8217;Leyar, the designated broker\/owner of Prudential Signature Properties in Seattle.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Healthy glow.&#8221; Good one. I&#8217;m going to have to remember that one.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, let&#8217;s get on with our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">September 2014<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>4,958<\/td>\n<td>-0.2%<\/td>\n<td>-0.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,113<\/td>\n<td>-11.4%<\/td>\n<td>-4.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.32<\/td>\n<td>-0.7%<\/td>\n<td>+11.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,617<\/td>\n<td>-5.9%<\/td>\n<td>+4.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>2.35<\/td>\n<td>+12.6%<\/td>\n<td>+4.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$460,000<\/td>\n<td>+5.3%<\/td>\n<td>+9.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Not much going on this month. Prices shifted back up (probably just due to <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/tag\/king-geographic-sales\/\" title=\"geographic mix posts\">another shift in the geographic mix<\/a>). Meanwhile sales and listings both began to dip in a typical fall fashion.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29594]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-09-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>After taking a big hit last month closed sales dipped even more between August and September, but the drop was fairly typical for this time of year. Between 2000 and 2013, sales fell an average of 12.2% between August and September, versus 11.4% this year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29594]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-09-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory began its annual slide with a very slight dip from last month.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29594]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-09-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not much change on this one, though both lines did shift slightly closer to zero.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29594]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-09-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The year-over-year growth in median price bumped back up last month but fell just short of moving back into double-digit territory.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-09.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29594]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-09-600x436.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Last month had the highest median price ever for a September.<\/p>\n<p>September 2014: $460,000<br \/>\nApril 2007: $465,000<\/p>\n<p>Here are the articles from the Seattle Times and P-I:<\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2024715395_homesalesxml.html\" title=\"King County home prices resume their climb\">King County home prices resume their climb<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Seattle-area-home-prices-up-again-5805039.php\" title=\"Seattle-area home prices up again\">Seattle-area home prices up again<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: Home Sales Stay Strong but Prices Approaching &quot;Affordability Ceiling&quot; for Some Buyers. Pending sales of homes around Western Washington surged more than 13 percent in September compared to a year ago, and listing activity picked up slightly, fueling both&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"On the blog: NWMLS: Housing Market Tightens, Slows Into Fall http:\/\/wp.me\/pe2Bv-7Hk","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-29594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Housing Market Tightens, Slows Into Fall \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/07\/nwmls-housing-market-slows-tightens-into-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Housing Market Tightens, Slows Into Fall \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"September market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Here&#8217;s a snippet from their press release: Home Sales Stay Strong but Prices Approaching &quot;Affordability Ceiling&quot; for Some Buyers. 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