{"id":29964,"date":"2014-12-04T12:30:19","date_gmt":"2014-12-04T20:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=29964"},"modified":"2014-12-04T15:02:45","modified_gmt":"2014-12-04T23:02:45","slug":"nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS today. They haven&#8217;t published their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.northwestmls.com\/index.cfm?\/News--Information\" title=\"NWMLS Press Release\">press release to its typical location<\/a> yet <em>[update: it has been posted now]<\/em>, so let&#8217;s just dive right into our usual monthly stats.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 590px; margin:0 auto 15px; border: 5px solid #000000; background:#FFFF00; color:#000000; font-variant: small-caps; font-size:130%; font-weight: bold; text-align: center; padding: 3px;\">\n<div style=\"font-size: 150%; background:#000000; color:#FFFF00; margin:-3px -3px -10px; padding:5px;\">CAUTION<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin:0;\">NWMLS monthly reports include an <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/11\/one-more-look-at-bogus-reports-from-the-nwmls\/\" title=\"One More Look at Bogus Reports from the NWMLS\" style=\"color:#000000; text-decoration:underline;\">undisclosed and varying number<\/a> of<br \/>sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<th style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">November 2014<\/th>\n<th>Number<\/th>\n<th>MOM<\/th>\n<th>YOY<\/th>\n<th>Buyers<\/th>\n<th>Sellers<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>3,658<\/td>\n<td>-18.8%<\/td>\n<td>-4.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,870<\/td>\n<td>-16.4%<\/td>\n<td>+5.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.00<\/td>\n<td>-13.1%<\/td>\n<td>-6.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,128<\/td>\n<td>-19.4%<\/td>\n<td>+3.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>1.96<\/td>\n<td>-2.8%<\/td>\n<td>-9.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/10\/declines-in-kings-median-price-softened-by-sales-shifts\/\" title=\"Declines in King's Median Price Softened by Sales Shifts\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$440,000<\/td>\n<td>-1.6%<\/td>\n<td>+6.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> (<a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">Excel 2003 format<\/a>), but keep in mind the caution above.<\/p>\n<p>Up until this month there was still at least one category that was trending in buyers&#8217; direction, but this month it&#8217;s all shifting toward a sellers&#8217; market. This is quite the change from <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2013\/12\/05\/nwmls-sales-prices-slipped-november\/\" title=\"NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter\">a year ago, when nearly every indicator was moving in buyers&#8217; favor<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Closed sales slipped in November, in typical fashion for this time of year. Prices dipped back down a bit more, and  listings continued to decrease as they do at this time every year, while staying below last year&#8217;s levels for the third month in a row.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29964]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHClosed2014-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Closed sales fell 16 percent from the previous month, but came in 5 percent above last year&#8217;s level&mdash;the largest year-over-year gain since October of last year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29964]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHInventory2014-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory continued its seasonal slide with the biggest month-over-month decrease since December of 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  &#8220;Demand&#8221; in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29964]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemandPct2014-11.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Both supply and demand are moving back in sellers&#8217; favor, with increasing sales and decreasing listings.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29964]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHPrices2014-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Hovering around where it&#8217;s been for most of the year.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[29964]\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSFHPricesYearly2014-11.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Home prices have been basically flat since May.<\/p>\n<p>November 2014: $440,000<br \/>\nOctober 2006: $440,000<\/p>\n<p>I haven&#8217;t seen articles posted on the Seattle Times and P-I yet, but I&#8217;ll update this post when they&#8217;re published.<\/p>\n<p><em>[update: here they are]<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2025167836_homesalesxml.html\" title=\"King County median home price up 6.3 percent over year ago\">King County median home price up 6.3 percent over year ago<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/realestate\/article\/Still-few-homes-for-sale-many-buyers-in-Seattle-5935574.php\" title=\"Still few homes for sale, many buyers in Seattle area\">Still few homes for sale, many buyers in Seattle area<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats were published by the NWMLS today. They haven&#8217;t published their press release to its typical location yet [update: it has been posted now], so let&#8217;s just dive right into our usual monthly stats. CAUTION NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number ofsales from previous months in their pending and closed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-29964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"November market stats were published by the NWMLS today. They haven&#8217;t published their press release to its typical location yet [update: it has been posted now], so let&#8217;s just dive right into our usual monthly stats. CAUTION NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number ofsales from previous months in their pending and closed...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemand2014-11.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemand2014-11.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-12-04T20:30:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-12-04T23:02:45+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemand2014-11.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/KingCoSupplyVsDemand2014-11.png\",\"width\":907,\"height\":618},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/04\/nwmls-housing-market-already-hibernating-winter\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Housing Market Already Hibernating for Winter\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. 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They haven&#8217;t published their press release to its typical location yet [update: it has been posted now], so let&#8217;s just dive right into our usual monthly stats. 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