{"id":3418,"date":"2008-11-20T09:28:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-20T17:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=3418"},"modified":"2008-11-20T09:28:00","modified_gmt":"2008-11-20T17:28:00","slug":"update-boom-and-bust-cycles-across-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/11\/20\/update-boom-and-bust-cycles-across-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Update: Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Back in July I<a title=\"Comparing Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/07\/31\/comparing-boom-and-bust-cycles-across-markets\/\" title=\"Comparing Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets\"> posted a comparison <\/a>of the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to date across a bunch of markets, to see if I could establish a clear relationship or correlation between the two. I wanted to give a quick update on this analysis.<\/p>\n<p>As a reminder, I based the gain\/loss percentages on Case-Shiller data for May and August; and for the purposes of this comparison, I used the following definitions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cBoom\u201d returns are the total appreciation between 09\/2001 (based on the oft cited relationship between the Fed taking down short term lending rates and the housing boom) and the peak for each market.<\/li>\n<li>\u201cBust\u201d returns are the total decline from peak to the latest reported numbers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; margin: 5px auto; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/august-08-boom-bust.png\" title=\"Boom vs. Bust update August 2008\" rel=\"lightbox[3418]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/11\/august-08-boom-bust-600x436.png\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px;\" title=\"Boom vs. Bust update August 2008 - Click to enlarge\" alt=\"Boom vs. Bust update August 2008\" width=\"600\" height=\"436\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Couple of things I noticed in this updated version of the analysis:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Overall, the slope of the line got steeper &#8211; meaning that the ratio of &#8220;bust&#8221; to &#8220;boom&#8221; increased. Based on what we are seeing in the super-bubbly markets (SF, San Diego, Phx, LA, Miami) I would expect this phenomenon will continue.<\/li>\n<li>The &#8220;fit&#8221; of the line also got better &#8211; meaning markets generally moved closer to the line<\/li>\n<li>Of the markets identified as &#8220;outliers&#8221; in the earlier analysis (Seattle, Portland, New York, Detroit), all but Detroit moved in the direction expected.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back in July I posted a comparison of the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to date across a bunch of markets, to see if I could establish a clear relationship or correlation between the two. I wanted to give a quick update on this analysis. As&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[206,8],"tags":[138,86,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-3418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-features","category-stats","tag-behind-the-cycle","tag-case-shiller","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Update: Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/11\/20\/update-boom-and-bust-cycles-across-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Update: Boom and Bust Cycles Across Markets \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Back in July I posted a comparison of the total percentage gain during the boom years to the total percentage drop from peak to date across a bunch of markets, to see if I could establish a clear relationship or correlation between the two. 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