{"id":379,"date":"2006-09-03T18:02:00","date_gmt":"2006-09-04T01:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=379"},"modified":"2011-12-03T22:53:42","modified_gmt":"2011-12-04T06:53:42","slug":"seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/","title":{"rendered":"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History"},"content":{"rendered":"

With all the press that Shiller’s Home Price Index<\/a> got last week, I suppose it was inevitable that our region’s #1 real estate cheerleader would feel compelled to mount a stirring defense of Seattle’s real estate downturn immunity. Amusingly, Elizabeth Rhodes’ apparent comeback<\/a> to Mr. Shiller’s frightening graph of home prices since 1890 is to splash a graph of her own across the front page of the Sunday paper<\/a>. A graph that goes all the way back<\/i>… to 1984 (conveniently just after<\/i> Seattle’s last price declines). (Edit: FYI, this graph is not<\/b> adjusted for inflation.)<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Home<\/a>
Click to enlarge<\/a><\/div>\n

Princeton economist Paul Krugman, writing in The New York Times, said: “The long-feared housing bust has arrived.”<\/p>\n

Nationally speaking, anyway.<\/p>\n

If history is any indication, King County may escape it, according to a Seattle Times analysis of single-family-home prices. It shows that appreciation rates have risen and fallen, sometimes precipitously.<\/p>\n

But not once since 1985 \u2014 through recession years, interest-rate spikes, wars and employment downturns \u2014 has the countywide median price of a single-family home fallen, although it’s come close.
\n…
\nA market-risk index compiled by PMI Mortgage Insurance calculates that San Diego faces nearly a 60 percent chance that home prices will fall in the next two years \u2014 the highest for any U.S. city.<\/p>\n

Boston, Sacramento, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose all have a 50 percent or greater chance of price dips, PMI says.<\/p>\n

Then there’s Seattle: about 11 percent.<\/p>\n

“When we see declines in prices, it’s nearly always driven by a local economic shock first,” said Mark Milner, PMI Mortgage’s chief risk officer. “So what this index is basically answering is how vulnerable Seattle is to a local economic shock: not nearly as vulnerable as Southern California.”<\/p>\n

Seattle-area job growth is among the strongest in the country, Milner said, and the local unemployment rate is below its long-term average. Equally important, he said, is that Seattle’s housing prices, while high, are still more affordable to local residents than prices in other coastal cities.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There’s not a shred of new information in this 1,265-word rant, just the same tired arguments we’ve been reading over and over again—strong local economy, not as<\/i> expensive as California, etc., etc., etc… The focus of this particular article is the “it’s never gone down before<\/i>” argument. I wonder if Ms. Rhodes and her lauded “local economists” have heard of the phrase “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”<\/p>\n

Since Ms. Rhodes hasn’t added anything to the discussion, I really don’t have anything to add myself, either. In fact, I addressed the “if history is any indication” argument at length<\/a> a while back, so I’ll just ask you to read that, if you haven’t already.<\/p>\n

(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times<\/a>, 09.03.2006<\/i>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With all the press that Shiller’s Home Price Index got last week, I suppose it was inevitable that our region’s #1 real estate cheerleader would feel compelled to mount a stirring defense of Seattle’s real estate downturn immunity. Amusingly, Elizabeth Rhodes’ apparent comeback to Mr. Shiller’s frightening graph of home prices since 1890 is to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[198],"tags":[90,3],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-seattle_is_special","tag-rhodes"],"yoast_head":"\nSeattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"With all the press that Shiller’s Home Price Index got last week, I suppose it was inevitable that our region’s #1 real estate cheerleader would feel compelled to mount a stirring defense of Seattle’s real estate downturn immunity. Amusingly, Elizabeth Rhodes’ apparent comeback to Mr. Shiller’s frightening graph of home prices since 1890 is to...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2006-09-04T01:02:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2011-12-04T06:53:42+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/\",\"http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble","twitter_description":"With all the press that Shiller’s Home Price Index got last week, I suppose it was inevitable that our region’s #1 real estate cheerleader would feel compelled to mount a stirring defense of Seattle’s real estate downturn immunity. Amusingly, Elizabeth Rhodes’ apparent comeback to Mr. Shiller’s frightening graph of home prices since 1890 is to...","twitter_image":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/","name":"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg","datePublished":"2006-09-04T01:02:00+00:00","dateModified":"2011-12-04T06:53:42+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg","contentUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/10\/home_prices_long_rise-600x537.jpg"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/09\/03\/seattle-times-we-are-immune-so-says-history\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Seattle Times: We Are Immune, So Says History"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.","sameAs":["http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/","http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless","https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim"],"url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6wh0F-67","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/379\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=379"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}