{"id":3858,"date":"2009-01-16T11:47:34","date_gmt":"2009-01-16T19:47:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=3858"},"modified":"2009-01-24T13:19:43","modified_gmt":"2009-01-24T21:19:43","slug":"stock-market-crash-historical-comparison-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/01\/16\/stock-market-crash-historical-comparison-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Crash Historical Comparison Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I thought it would be interesting to post an update on the stock market crash graph that I <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/24\/comparing-past-market-crashes\/\" title=\"Comparing Past Market Crashes\">first posted back in October<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In the chart below I have graphed the crashes of 1929, 1973, 1987, and 2001 alongside the current fall, with the peak points aligned near the left. Each crash is scaled on the y-axis to show the percent of the peak Dow Jones price.<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/dow-jones-crashes_09-01-15.png\" title=\"Dow Jones Crashes\" rel=\"lightbox[3858]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/dow-jones-crashes_09-01-15-600x435.png\" title=\"Dow Jones Crashes\" alt=\"Dow Jones Crashes\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3857\" srcset=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/dow-jones-crashes_09-01-15-600x435.png 600w, https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/dow-jones-crashes_09-01-15-550x399.png 550w, https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/dow-jones-crashes_09-01-15.png 911w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>464 days into the crash, the current plunge still ranks second only to 1929.  Back in October, we did drop for a brief time to a point lower than the lowest point on the green &#8217;70s graph (45.1% off-peak), but we currently appear to be in a bit of a holding pattern at about 40% off peak.<\/p>\n<p>On a related topic, I spotted this article from late last month that amused me: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlepi.nwsource.com\/business\/393921_predictions29.html\" title=\"Market predictions proved to be tricky business\">Market predictions proved to be tricky business<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>At a small, private event at the Metropolitan Grill in January, nine of the region&#8217;s brightest and most respected financial advisers gathered to sip fine wine, eat prime beef and forecast the financial future.<\/p>\n<p>The date was Jan. 10. The Dow Jones industrial average was 12,853. And Washington Mutual was a pillar of the Seattle business scene.<\/p>\n<p>With a quarter-century of such gatherings, the &#8220;Guess the Dow&#8221; luncheon at the Met has become an annual fat-cat Seattle tradition.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nConsensus was that Starbucks Corp., Nordstrom Inc. and Microsoft Corp. stocks all would rise, the Dow would close above 14,000 and Hillary Clinton would be president.<\/p>\n<p>Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Definitely not. And wrong.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This year&#8217;s &#8220;Guess the Dow&#8221; luncheon <del datetime=\"2009-01-16T21:03:08+00:00\">is today<\/del> was yesterday.  I haven&#8217;t heard what their predictions are for 2009, but I <del datetime=\"2009-01-16T21:03:08+00:00\">have a contact that is attending and will ask him this afternoon<\/del> will try to find out.  Let&#8217;s see if the Seattle Bubble readership can collectively beat the &#8220;region&#8217;s brightest and most respected financial advisers.&#8221;<br \/>\n<div id=\"polls-68\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Where will the Dow Jones close for 2009?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<div id=\"polls-68-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li>Below 6,000 <small>(17%, 118 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 17%;\" title=\"Below 6,000 (17% | 118 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>6,000 to &lt; 7,000 <small>(18%, 124 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 18%;\" title=\"6,000 to &amp;lt; 7,000 (18% | 124 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>7,000 to &lt; 8,000 <small>(22%, 156 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 22%;\" title=\"7,000 to &amp;lt; 8,000 (22% | 156 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>8,000 to &lt; 9,000 <small>(20%, 139 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 20%;\" title=\"8,000 to &amp;lt; 9,000 (20% | 139 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>9,000 to &lt; 10,000 <small>(16%, 112 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 16%;\" title=\"9,000 to &amp;lt; 10,000 (16% | 112 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>Above 10,000 <small>(8%, 55 Votes)<\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 8%;\" title=\"Above 10,000 (8% | 55 Votes)\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Total Voters: <strong>704<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<\/div>\n\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_68_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"5dcadeac8a\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I thought it would be interesting to post an update on the stock market crash graph that I first posted back in October. In the chart below I have graphed the crashes of 1929, 1973, 1987, and 2001 alongside the current fall, with the peak points aligned near the left. Each crash is scaled on&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,159],"tags":[403,344,1117,108,271],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-3858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-polls","tag-depression","tag-dow-jones","tag-polls","tag-recession","tag-stock-market"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Crash Historical Comparison Update \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/01\/16\/stock-market-crash-historical-comparison-update\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Stock Market Crash Historical Comparison Update \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"I thought it would be interesting to post an update on the stock market crash graph that I first posted back in October. 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