{"id":408,"date":"2005-08-16T10:44:00","date_gmt":"2005-08-16T17:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=408"},"modified":"2015-12-11T11:58:34","modified_gmt":"2015-12-11T19:58:34","slug":"about-the-blogger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2005\/08\/16\/about-the-blogger\/","title":{"rendered":"About the Blogger"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;d like to use some space to tell you a little bit about myself so you can best understand where I&#8217;m coming from, what my purpose is in writing this blog, and what I personally believe with respect to a real estate \/ housing bubble.<\/p>\n<p><strong>[2015 Update]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As of December 2015, I am 35 and now working at <a href=\"http:\/\/moz.com\/\" title=\"Moz\">Moz<\/a>. I still own and live in the same home we bought in 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>[End of 2015 Update]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>[2011 Update]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As of mid-2011, I am 31 and working <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/07\/14\/some-noteworthy-personal-news\/\">as a product manager at Redfin<\/a>.  For details about my other personal projects, visit <a href=\"http:\/\/thatchmound.com\/\" title=\"Thatch Mound\">Thatch Mound<\/a>.  After searching for over six years while I watched the housing market inflate and then crash, <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2011\/05\/27\/guess-what\/\" title=\"Guess What\">I finally bought my first home in May 2011<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>[End of 2011 Update]<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>The following was written when I started this site in 2005:<\/em><\/p>\n<hr style=\"border-top:3px solid #000000;\" \/>\nI am 25 years old, living in the Seattle area (North King County), and have been working as an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=define%3A+electrical+engineer\">electrical engineer<\/a> (no, not an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=define%3A+electrician\">electrician<\/a>) in South Snohomish County since I earned a Bachelor&#8217;s degree in EE from Seattle Pacific University in 2002.  I do not currently own any property, though I would of course love to.  I currently live in a small house (actually a converted garage) with my wife, dog, four ferrets, and an aquarium full of water critters.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout early 2005, my wife and I spent some time &#8220;window shopping&#8221; for houses, and became increasingly discouraged as we watched prices become more and more unreasonable.  In addition, as we window-shopped I did a lot of reading and research.  The more I read about housing and real estate in general, the more stories I noticed speculating that there was a bubble.  I decided to start this blog as a way to collect these stories for my own future reference as well as to generate discussion among other interested parties.  I figured that in a region with over two million people, a decent number of them might be just as interested as I am in the subject.<\/p>\n<p>Given all that I have read as well as what I have observed, I do believe there is a <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Economic_bubble\">speculative bubble<\/a> in real estate right now.  I don&#8217;t know it for sure and I could be convinced otherwise, but that&#8217;s where I stand right now.  I believe that the present real estate bubble is due to a combination of factors, among which are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>lowest interest rates in history persisting for years<\/li>\n<li>lenders falling over themselves to hand out home loans to anyone and everyone<\/li>\n<li>people burned by the stock market moving to real estate as an investment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One thing I <em>do<\/em> know for certain is that the recent trend of rapidly increasing property values (double-digit increases year-on-year) <em>cannot possibly<\/em> continue indefinitely.  If it did, eventually <em>everyone<\/em> would be priced out of real estate.  There <em>has<\/em> to be a slow-down sometime, and I think it&#8217;s coming fairly soon (within the next 3-5 years).  I don&#8217;t know if it will take the form of a leveling off of values, or a slow decrease, or a sudden decrease (bubble bursting), but I know it is coming.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, since the only way my wife and I could afford a home that is even halfway decent right now would be to make use of &#8220;creative financing,&#8221; and there is at least a chance that real estate is due for a &#8220;price correction&#8221; soon, we have decided that it is not in our best interests to &#8220;invest&#8221; in a home at this time.  Consider these scenarios:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>If we buy a decent house right now through &#8220;creative financing&#8221; and interest rates go up, we&#8217;ll be unable to afford to keep making payments, and forced to sell the house.  No big deal if prices just level off, but we would be in a really bad way if prices drop.If we buy a house with 20% down and a fixed-rate mortgage, and interest rates go up and prices drop, we&#8217;re not in danger of not making payments, but we could end up essentially stuck holding onto a mediocre house until prices go back up.<\/p>\n<p>If we hold off buying and prices just level off, we&#8217;ve still saved a bunch of money and are able to afford a lot nicer place than we can right now.<\/p>\n<p>If we hold off buying during this real estate frenzy, and prices dramatically drop in a few years, then we&#8217;ll be able to take the money we&#8217;ve saved in the mean time and buy a nice house.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Given the options and the uncertainty of the current market, <em>not<\/em> buying right now seems to be the best choice for us.  So that&#8217;s where I&#8217;m coming from.  What about you?  Do you currently own property, are you holding out, or just not interested?  Have you recently bought a home, or are you buying properties as investments?  What do you think about the possible risks?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;d like to use some space to tell you a little bit about myself so you can best understand where I&#8217;m coming from, what my purpose is in writing this blog, and what I personally believe with respect to a real estate \/ housing bubble. [2015 Update] As of December 2015, I am 35 and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[201],"tags":[43,70],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-admin","tag-administrative","tag-blogging"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>About the Blogger \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2005\/08\/16\/about-the-blogger\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"About the Blogger \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"I&#8217;d like to use some space to tell you a little bit about myself so you can best understand where I&#8217;m coming from, what my purpose is in writing this blog, and what I personally believe with respect to a real estate \/ housing bubble. 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