{"id":4311,"date":"2009-02-16T06:00:55","date_gmt":"2009-02-16T14:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=4311"},"modified":"2009-07-30T20:04:04","modified_gmt":"2009-07-31T03:04:04","slug":"bottom-calling-week-on-seattle-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/02\/16\/bottom-calling-week-on-seattle-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Bottom-Calling Week on Seattle Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"

There’s been a lot<\/a> of talk<\/a> lately about whether<\/a> or not<\/a> the Seattle-area real estate market is “at bottom.”<\/p>\n

Before I go any further, I should point out that as a practical matter, I think that it doesn’t really matter where the absolute bottom is. As I have always said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

If you find a home that you love, at a price that you\u2019re comfortable paying (i.e. – you wouldn\u2019t be upset if the price dropped another 10-20%), and you plan to live there for a long time, then go for it.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

During the real estate bubble, people were buying homes based primarily on the hope of future appreciation, which led to a mindset of “there’s no such thing as an overpriced house.” If you’re buying a house you can afford<\/strong>, primarily as a place to live, and are paying a price you are happy with<\/strong>, who really cares whether or not we’re “at bottom”? So the price drops another 25%, so what? You were happy with the price you paid, right?<\/p>\n

However, I’m not ignorant. I realize that the question of when we will hit bottom is one that interests many people. That’s why I am making this week Bottom-Calling Week on Seattle Bubble. In keeping with the statistics-focused nature of this site, we’ll be using a variety of statistical methods to attempt to forecast when the Seattle-area real estate market will hit bottom, and at what price point (expressed as a percentage drop from the peak).<\/p>\n

Here’s how the week will be structured:<\/p>\n