{"id":460,"date":"2006-12-13T15:01:00","date_gmt":"2006-12-13T22:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=460"},"modified":"2007-06-06T18:39:56","modified_gmt":"2007-06-07T01:39:56","slug":"housing-bubble-time-warp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Bubble Time Warp"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here are a few quotes from newspaper articles in October, November, and December about the housing market:<\/p>\n

October<\/u>
\n[A]<\/strong>: “I fully expect things to pick up the first part of the year.” Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say. Data released yesterday support their view.<\/p>\n

November<\/u>
\n[B]<\/strong>: …industry analysts said [the] housing boom seems to be coming to a quiet end. The balloon isn’t bursting, they said, but it’s losing steam.<\/p>\n

[C]<\/strong>: …sales of existing homes and condominiums declined … last month. Even with the decline in sales, the median price of an existing home sold last month rose [year-over-year].<\/p>\n

December<\/u>
\n[D]<\/strong>: sales … declined in the month of November. … The median price for a home sold last month was up from a year ago. … “The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong. … I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Nothing new, right? It’s pretty much more of the same\u2014what<\/a> we’re used<\/a> to reading<\/a> whenever the local rags start talking about real estate in the greater Seattle area.<\/p>\n

Only, there’s a few details I didn’t mention about the above quotes. They’re from last year<\/em>, they’re not from the local rags, and they’re not referring to Seattle<\/em>.<\/p>\n

On a suggestion from reader John Law the II<\/a>, I went searching for news reports from a year ago about the nationwide<\/em> housing market (quotes C<\/strong> & D<\/strong>), and for good measure I pulled a few quotes from San Diego as well (A<\/strong> & B<\/strong>). What I found bore an eerie similarity to the kinds of things we’ve seen printed in the local press regarding the Seattle market the past few months.<\/p>\n

So, a year ago the “experts” were predicting continued (but slowing) appreciation, with no price declines. Let’s see how well those predictions held up.<\/p>\n

San Diego, October 2005<\/a>: “Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say. Data released yesterday support their view.”<\/p>\n

San Diego, December 2006<\/a>: “San Diego County housing prices slipped 6.9 percent last month, the biggest year-over-year drop on record.”<\/p>\n

Nationwide, December 2005<\/a>: “‘I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year.'”<\/p>\n

Nationwide, November 2006<\/a>: “…the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Obviously this doesn’t prove<\/em> anything about what is going to happen here in Seattle in the coming year. However, given the theory that the housing market in the Northwest lags California<\/a> (or the nation as a whole) by about a year, I think it’s an interesting comparison.<\/p>\n

At the very least it just goes to show you that the so-called “experts” either didn’t know what they were talking about, or were intentionally misleading the press. So why should we believe what they’re saying today regarding Seattle’s market, when the numbers seem to be saying something else<\/a>?<\/p>\n

(Emmet Pierce\/Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune<\/a>, 10.18.2005<\/em>)
\n(Emmet Pierce\/Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune<\/a>, 11.12.2005<\/em>)
\n(Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press<\/a>, 11.28.2005<\/em>)
\n(Charlie Herman, ABC News<\/a>, 12.29.2005<\/em>)
\n(Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune<\/a>, 12.13.2006<\/em>)
\n(Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press<\/a>, 11.29.2006<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here are a few quotes from newspaper articles in October, November, and December about the housing market: October [A]: “I fully expect things to pick up the first part of the year.” Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[1113],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nHousing Bubble Time Warp \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Housing Bubble Time Warp \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Here are a few quotes from newspaper articles in October, November, and December about the housing market: October [A]: “I fully expect things to pick up the first part of the year.” Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/\",\"name\":\"Housing Bubble Time Warp \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2006-12-13T22:01:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2007-06-07T01:39:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2006\/12\/13\/housing-bubble-time-warp\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Housing Bubble Time Warp\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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