{"id":5413,"date":"2009-05-05T12:45:32","date_gmt":"2009-05-05T19:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=5413"},"modified":"2009-06-06T12:43:04","modified_gmt":"2009-06-06T19:43:04","slug":"nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Huge Gap Opening Between Pending and Closed Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time for April market statistics from the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: <a title=\"NWMLS press release\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwmls.com\/discover\/nwreporter.cfm?SectionListsID=25&#038;PageID=5054\">Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago \u2013 and rose 21.3 percent from March.<\/p>\n<p>Brokers reported 6,918 pending sales during April across the 19 counties that make up the Northwest MLS market area. That&#8217;s up from the year-ago total of 6,208, and the March figure of 5,701 pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed).<\/p>\n<p>For the four-county Puget Sound area (King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish), brokers notched 5,372 pending sales, the highest total since August 2007 and a jump of 26 percent from March.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>What a shock that their primary focus is on the apparent positive trend in pending sales, when pending sales are rapidly becoming a totally useless measure of actual market activity.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, in a new table format with helpful arrows to show whether the direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<td style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">April 2009<\/td>\n<td>Number<\/td>\n<td>MOM<\/td>\n<td>YOY<\/td>\n<td>Buyers<\/td>\n<td>Sellers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>9,608<\/td>\n<td>+0.2%<\/td>\n<td>-15.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,004<\/td>\n<td>+3.7%<\/td>\n<td>-35.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>2.86<\/td>\n<td>+2.7%<\/td>\n<td>+20.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,114<\/td>\n<td>+25.6%<\/td>\n<td>+14.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>4.54<\/td>\n<td>-20.2%<\/td>\n<td>-26.8%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a title=\"Median Price Not Telling the Whole Truth\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/08\/14\/median-price-not-telling-the-whole-truth\/\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$380,000<\/td>\n<td>+4.4%<\/td>\n<td>-15.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The disconnect between pending sales and closed sales grows ever larger.  While pending sales were up 15% from last year, closed sales were <em>down<\/em> over 30% yet again.  Something is becoming extremely fishy about the pending sales data.  Observe the stark difference in the two charts below:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhsales2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhsales2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhclosed2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhclosed2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 33% spike from February to March in pending sales resulted in all of a whopping 4% increase in closed sales in the following month.  We&#8217;ll explore more on this huge disconnect in a little more detail in a future post, but it is good to keep in mind when you start reading news reports in the coming weeks about the market supposedly picking back up.  It&#8217;s an illusion.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, and here&#8217;s <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">a copy in Excel 2003 format<\/a>.  Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhinventory2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhinventory2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory stayed mostly flat again in April, which is not surprising.  Most people that don&#8217;t <em>need<\/em> to sell are avoiding listing their homes in the current market.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  Keep in mind that &#8220;demand&#8221; in the next two charts is measured by pending sales, which are becoming increasingly unreliable as a market indicator.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pending sales jumped sharply back into positive territory in April, while inventory continued its downward trend.  No surprises.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>April&#8217;s pending sales exceeded the peak seen in 2008.  Big whoop though, since 30% or more of them will apparently never turn in to actual closed sales.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhprices2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhprices2009-04-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Despite the nearly $20,000 spike in the median price from last month, the year-over-year change still exceeded negative 15%.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-04.png\" rel=\"lightbox[5413]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-04-600x437.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>April 2009 King County median SFH price: $380,000.<br \/>\nJuly 2005 King County median SFH price: $375,000.<\/p>\n<p>Our little spring bounce advanced us forward four months in 2005.  It will be interesting to see if median prices stay virtually flat through the summer following the bounce, as they did last year.<\/p>\n<p>Looks like we beat the Times and the P-I to the punch on these numbers yet again.  I&#8217;ll update this post with news blurbs from them when they become available.  As usual, check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n<p>[Update]<br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2009178455_webhomesales05.html\" title=\"Median home prices in King County continue to fall compared to year ago\">Median home prices in King County continue to fall compared to year ago<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/405896_housing05.html\" title=\"Area home sales sprang up in April\">Area home sales sprang up in April<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time for April market statistics from the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago \u2013 and rose 21.3 percent from March. Brokers reported 6,918 pending sales&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-5413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Huge Gap Opening Between Pending and Closed Sales \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Huge Gap Opening Between Pending and Closed Sales \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time for April market statistics from the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago \u2013 and rose 21.3 percent from March. Brokers reported 6,918 pending sales...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Huge Gap Opening Between Pending and Closed Sales \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhsales2009-04-600x408.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-05-05T19:45:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-06-06T19:43:04+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhsales2009-04.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/05\/kingcosfhsales2009-04.png\",\"width\":\"902\",\"height\":\"614\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/05\/nwmls-huge-gap-opening-between-pending-and-closed-sales\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Huge Gap Opening Between Pending and Closed Sales\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago \u2013 and rose 21.3 percent from March. 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