{"id":6223,"date":"2009-07-06T11:53:38","date_gmt":"2009-07-06T18:53:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=6223"},"modified":"2009-07-06T13:49:53","modified_gmt":"2009-07-06T20:49:53","slug":"nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Sales Edge Above &#8217;08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at June market statistics from the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: <a title=\"&quot;Aware and prepared buyers&quot; help boost Western Washington home sales during June\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\">&#8220;Aware and prepared buyers&#8221; help boost Western Washington home sales during June<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with helpful arrows to show whether the direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<td style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">June 2009<\/td>\n<td>Number<\/td>\n<td>MOM<\/td>\n<td>YOY<\/td>\n<td>Buyers<\/td>\n<td>Sellers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>9,655<\/td>\n<td>-2.0%<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,655<\/td>\n<td>+26.1%<\/td>\n<td>+4.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>2.06<\/td>\n<td>-11.3%<\/td>\n<td>-15.5%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,447<\/td>\n<td>+8.9%<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>3.95<\/td>\n<td>-10.0%<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<td>&#8211;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a title=\"Median Price Not Telling the Whole Truth\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/08\/14\/median-price-not-telling-the-whole-truth\/\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$395,000<\/td>\n<td>+5.3%<\/td>\n<td>-12.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Note that due to <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/11\/recent-spike-in-pending-sales-due-to-change-in-definition\/\" title=\"Recent Spike in &quot;Pending&quot; Sales Due to Change in Definition?\">the change in definitions<\/a>, year-over-year comparisons of pending sales, active listings, and months of supply will not be valid until July data.<\/p>\n<p>Closed sales posted another strong month-to-month increase, and actually turned positive year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhclosed2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhclosed2009-06-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Looks like <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/01\/09\/predictions-2008-in-the-bag-2009-on-the-horizon\/\" title=\"Predictions: 2008 in the Bag, 2009 on the Horizon\">my prediction<\/a> that sales would &#8220;eventually flatten out and maybe even show YOY gains&#8221; in 2009 turned out to be correct after all.  Apparently absurdly low interest rates combined with the $8,000 tax credit were enough incentive to draw out a decent spring rush of knife-catchers.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, and here&#8217;s <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">a copy in Excel 2003 format<\/a>.  Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhinventory2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhinventory2009-06-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Note that the current data is still not comparable with pre-July 2008 data.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in the following two charts is now represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-06-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s quite the sharp bump up there in June.  Of course, sales closing in June are (mostly) all the result of deals that were agreed upon in the prime spring months of April and May.  With interest rates back over 5% and the deadline for school district-related moves passed, will the sales spike be sustained, or merely a springtime flash in the pan?<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-06-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhprices2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhprices2009-06-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I have no doubt that the $20k one-month bump in the median price will be the primary focus of most mainstream media reports about this data.  Surprisingly, even with that large of a spike in the always-noisy median statistic, year-over-year price declines are still in double-digit territory.  FYI, in order to get a better picture of what might be going on with the apparent price spike, I&#8217;ll be working on a couple of additional price measures in the coming week or two.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-06.png\" rel=\"lightbox[6223]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid #000000; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-06-600x437.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That little bump put us back into 2006 territory.  <em>(Warning: Sarcasm Ahead)<\/em>  Oh no, anyone who didn&#8217;t buy in March has missed the bottom and will surely be price out forever!<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll update this post with news blurbs from the Times and P-I when they become available.  As usual, check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.<\/p>\n<p><strong>[Update]<\/strong><br \/>\nSeattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/realestate\/2009424140_webhomesales06.html\" title=\"Home sales climb in June in King County; median price drops from year ago to $395,000\">Home sales climb in June in King County; median price drops from year ago to $395,000<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/407872_housing06.html\" title=\"House sales up in King County\">House sales up in King County<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at June market statistics from the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: &#8220;Aware and prepared buyers&#8221; help boost Western Washington home sales during June Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with helpful arrows to show whether the direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers: June&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-6223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Sales Edge Above &#039;08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Sales Edge Above &#039;08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Let&#8217;s take a look at June market statistics from the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: &#8220;Aware and prepared buyers&#8221; help boost Western Washington home sales during June Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with helpful arrows to show whether the direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers: June...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Sales Edge Above '08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhclosed2009-06-600x408.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-07-06T18:53:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-07-06T20:49:53+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhclosed2009-06.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/07\/kingcosfhclosed2009-06.png\",\"width\":\"902\",\"height\":\"614\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Sales Edge Above &#8217;08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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