{"id":7161,"date":"2009-09-04T18:07:13","date_gmt":"2009-09-05T01:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=7161"},"modified":"2009-09-05T06:27:21","modified_gmt":"2009-09-05T13:27:21","slug":"nwmls-closed-sales-diverge-even-further-from-pendings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/09\/04\/nwmls-closed-sales-diverge-even-further-from-pendings\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Closed Sales Diverge Even Further from Pendings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Time to take a look at August market statistics from the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: <a title=\"Northwest MLS brokers report brisk activity, multiple offers, &quot;irrational delays&quot; by lenders\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\">Northwest MLS brokers report brisk activity, multiple offers, &quot;irrational delays&quot; by lenders<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with helpful arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<td style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">July 2009<\/td>\n<td>Number<\/td>\n<td>MOM<\/td>\n<td>YOY<\/td>\n<td>Buyers<\/td>\n<td>Sellers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>9,491<\/td>\n<td>-3.7%<\/td>\n<td>-20.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,609<\/td>\n<td>-6.8%<\/td>\n<td>+5.0%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.88<\/td>\n<td>-7.7%<\/td>\n<td>-13.4%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>2,311<\/td>\n<td>+4.2%<\/td>\n<td>+31.5<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>4.11<\/td>\n<td>-7.6%<\/td>\n<td>-39.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a title=\"Median Price Not Telling the Whole Truth\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/08\/median-price-still-being-distorted-by-geographic-shifts-in-sales\/\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$375,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.3%<\/td>\n<td>-11.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>Breaking from <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/08\/Pend-Closed-forecast_2009-07.png\" title=\"Pending &#038; Closed Sales 2009\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\">the pattern we had seen in recent months<\/a>, closed sales declined in August, falling even further below the pending sales levels from the previous months.  Barring an unexpected and incredibly uncharacteristic surge in closed sales in September or October, it looks like July&#8217;s 1,727 will end up being <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/17\/poll-guess-the-maximum-1-month-total-closed-sfh-sales-in-king-co-for-2009\/\" title=\"Poll: Guess the maximum 1-month total closed SFH sales in King Co. for 2009\">the one-month maximum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhclosed2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhclosed2009-08-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m having some trouble uploading the spreadsheet from here at PAX, but before I head to bed tonight I will post the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, and here&#8217;s <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">a copy in Excel 2003 format<\/a>.  Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhinventory2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhinventory2009-08-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Inventory for most of this year has been remarkably flat.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in the following two charts is now represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-08-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Diminishing YOY increases for sales in August.  Will be interesting to see if we drop back into negative YOY territory before the year is up.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-08-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhprices2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhprices2009-08-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7161]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-08-600x437.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>August 2009&#8217;s SFH median came in $10,000 below August 2005.  I bet it would really suck to be somebody that was considering buying in August 2005, but started a bubble blog instead.  Or not.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a few news blurbs to hold you over until tomorrow&#8217;s reporting roundup (which will probably be posted later in the day than usual due to it being a Saturday, and also <a href=\"http:\/\/www.paxsite.com\/\" title=\"Penny Arcade Expo\">PAX<\/a>).  [<b>Update:<\/b> I decided to hold off on the reporting roundup until Monday, since a lot fewer people read the site on the weekend anyway, plus with the holiday weekend I imagine traffic will be even lighter.  Have a great weekend everybody, see you Tuesday.]<\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2009807760_webhomesales04.html\" title=\"August home sales strong in Puget Sound region but median prices continue to sag\">August home sales strong in Puget Sound region but median prices continue to sag<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I:  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/409863_housing04.html\" title=\"Pending home sales spike, according to MLS report\">Pending home sales spike, according to MLS report<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Time to take a look at August market statistics from the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Northwest MLS brokers report brisk activity, multiple offers, &quot;irrational delays&quot; by lenders. Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with helpful arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-7161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Closed Sales Diverge Even Further from Pendings \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/09\/04\/nwmls-closed-sales-diverge-even-further-from-pendings\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Closed Sales Diverge Even Further from Pendings \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Time to take a look at August market statistics from the NWMLS. 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