{"id":7471,"date":"2009-10-06T12:48:15","date_gmt":"2009-10-06T19:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=7471"},"modified":"2009-10-06T12:48:15","modified_gmt":"2009-10-06T19:48:15","slug":"september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/","title":{"rendered":"September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don&#8217;t have to.<\/p>\n<p>First up, an excerpt from the NWMLS press release itself: <a title=\"Northwest MLS brokers agree &quot;there's a lot to be optimistic about&quot;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\">Northwest MLS brokers agree &quot;there&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about&quot;<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;There&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about,&#8221; according to one director of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service upon reviewing summary statistics for September&#8217;s housing activity. The report shows a big jump in pending sales compared to a year ago (up almost 27 percent), continued drops in inventory (down 17.7 percent versus a year ago) and brisk demand for homes at the lower end of the price spectrum.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nJoe Spencer, president and COO of John L. Scott Real Estate, estimates up to 10 percent of pending sales do not close because they&#8217;re caught in the short sale cycle. Still, he comments, &#8220;There is a lot to be optimistic about.&#8221; He cites interest rates that are now in the high four percents as bordering &#8220;on being epic&#8221; and the federal tax credit as stimulants to the market.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nActivity at open houses is reported to be brisk in many areas&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sweet!  The return of the ever-popular &#8220;open house traffic&#8221; metric of market health.  I love it.  Also classic is the heavy focus on the pending sales stat, which has been rendered practically meaningless in the past year.  FYI, that 10% estimate is way too low.  I&#8217;d put it around 20-25%.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, click below to read the rest of this month&#8217;s reporting roundup, in which the incredible <b>surge<\/b> and uplifting <b>rally<\/b> is detailed by the enthusiastic local press corps.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><em>Eric Pryne, Seattle Times<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/realestate\/2010007253_homesales06.html\" title=\"King County home sales surge in September, but prices continue to fall year-over-year\">King County home sales surge in September, but prices continue to fall year-over-year<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Matt and Priscilla Karwoski bought their first house last month: a new, three-bedroom town house in West Seattle. One factor: the $8,000 tax credit the federal government approved for first-time buyers this year.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nThe $8,000 credit has helped fuel a surge in home sales, nationally and locally. Closed sales of single-family homes in King County were up 14.3 percent in September from the same month last year, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Monday.<\/p>\n<p>It was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year gains.<\/p>\n<p>But the tax credit is scheduled to expire Nov. 30. After that, some observers say, home sales could drop again, just as auto sales plummeted after the federal &#8220;cash-for-clunkers&#8221; program ran its course.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nAs for the $8,000 tax credit, it wasn&#8217;t the decisive factor, he <em>[Matt Karwoski]<\/em> added \u2014 but it was a factor.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Eric quoted a few thoughts from me on the current state of the market in today&#8217;s article.  If you&#8217;re interested I have posted <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/05\/nwmls-closed-sales-volume-in-summer-holding-pattern\/#comment-84221\" title=\"Comment on NWMLS: Closed Sales Volume in Summer Holding Pattern\">the full text of my comments to Eric<\/a>.  It is interesting to note that the buyer profiled in today&#8217;s article admits that $8,000 tax giveaway was not &#8220;the decisive factor.&#8221;  Here&#8217;s another potential buyer in the comments on the Times&#8217; site:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The $8,000 tax credit is one of the big reasons I&#8217;m trying to buy a home before November 30. &#8230; Without the tax credit I&#8217;d be willing to watch things for another year decline.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nI even had some friends who bought a house a month before his wedding because of the tax credit. The bride already had a condo, but the groom bought a house, got the $8,000 and they have the condo rented out on a 2 year lease.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Another example of today&#8217;s $8,000 tax credit-inspired buyers being either <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/08\/07\/tax-giveaways-succeed-in-borrowing-more-demand-from-the-future\/\" title=\"Tax Giveaways Succeed in Borrowing More Demand From the Future\">borrowed demand<\/a> or purchases that would have happened anyway.  What a complete waste of a program.<\/p>\n<p><em>John Stang, Seattle P-I<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/410811_houseprices5.html\" title=\"King County home sales surge, but pitfalls remain\">King County home sales surge, but pitfalls remain<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Seattle-area house sales continued to show signs of life in September. But the magic economic window to encourage homes sales is closing.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nColdwell Banker Bain Managing Vice President Ron Sparks crowed about the report in the listing service news release.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our market has certainly come a long way since this time last year,&#8221; Sparks said. &#8220;For all the challenges that remain, it would be difficult to not appreciate the reemerging market vitality that continues to build even as the summer buying season closes.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Crellin said it remains to be seen whether all of the currently pending sales will translate into closed sales. He said the turnaround time for short sales &#8212; in which a banks agrees to accept less than its owed as part of a sale to avoid the costs of foreclosure &#8212; has jumped from 4.5 weeks a year ago to 9.5 weeks today, according to Campbell Communications of Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n<p>Short sales also have helped keep down prices, Dick Beeson, a director of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, in the news release.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Because there are so many short sales and bank owned property sales, it was inevitable that prices would fall slightly,&#8221; he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I can&#8217;t help but feel that Crellin&#8217;s being pretty disengenuous here.  We&#8217;re not just looking at a time delay.  We&#8217;re looking at a large number of completely failed pending sales.  As of September there are now 4,887 <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/Pending-Closed-YTD-Orphaned_2009-08.png\" rel=\"lightbox[7471]\">&#8220;orphaned&#8221;<\/a> single-family pending sales in King County for 2009.  There is absolutely no way that those are all going to eventually translate into closed sales.  I&#8217;ll be surprised if even half of them do.<\/p>\n<p><em>Mike Benbow, Everett Herald<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/heraldnet.com\/article\/20091006\/BIZ\/710069925\/1005\" title=\"Prices down, but home sales up 9 percent in county\">Prices down, but home sales up 9 percent in county<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Snohomish County home sales rose for the fourth straight month in August, aided by falling prices and a rush by first-time buyers to beat the deadline for an $8,000 tax break.<\/p>\n<p>There were 755 homes sold in the county last month, a 9.1 percent increase from a year ago, The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported today.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nThe tax break was also a big issue, said Bob Maple, an Everett broker for John L. Scott Real Estate.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nThe tax credit, that\u2019s what\u2019s driving sales,\u201d Maple said. \u201cNearly all of our business has been from first-time buyers.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230;first-time buyers that probably would have bought in 2010 or 2011, had a free money giveaway not pulled them into the market before they were otherwise prepared to take the leap.<\/p>\n<p><em>C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thenewstribune.com\/business\/story\/906213.html\" title=\"Real estate rallies, agents say\">Real estate rallies, agents say<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>We\u2019ve already hit the bottom and we are no longer there.<\/p>\n<p>So say real estate professionals who have reviewed the latest numbers, out Monday, from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt appears that we\u2019ve seen the bottom, and we\u2019re starting to climb out,\u201d said Bill Riley, an owner of GMAC Real Estate in Puyallup and president-elect of Washington Realtors.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople now know they can buy a house and it will be worth more down the road,\u201d he said Monday. \u201cI wasn\u2019t sure last month, but we are definitely in an upswing. There\u2019s a possibility we can see the price of homes increase in 2009.\u201d<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nAccording to Dick Beeson, a Windermere broker and a director of Northwest MLS, the latest numbers reflect \u201ca lot of pent-up demand. A lot more people are realizing closed sales.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The demand for homes, he said Monday, \u201cis there. It\u2019s just getting the darn things to the point where they\u2019re actually closing \u2013 and that\u2019s starting to happen. I think it\u2019s pretty close to a trend. More people are getting into the market and off the fence.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nice.  Another explicit bottom call for the scrapbook.<\/p>\n<p><em>Rolf Boone, The Olympian<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theolympian.com\/topstories\/story\/994320.html\" title=\"Home sales start Rally, agents say\">Home sales start Rally, agents say<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Pending home sales in Thurston County rose more than 11 percent in September, a sign that first-time homebuyers rushed to take advantage of an $8,000 tax incentive program before it expires next month, South Sound real estate agents said Monday.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nWindermere Olympia real estate agent Gregory Moe agreed that the tax incentive program has boosted pending sales. Moe said he recently worked with a buyer who wanted to buy specifically to take advantage of the program.<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nAlthough the housing market is improving, the lack of local employment is holding the market back, he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Huh, so people without jobs can&#8217;t buy houses?  Go figure.<\/p>\n<p>(<em>Eric Pryne, <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2010005079_webhomesales05.html\" title=\"Home sales in September surge in King County but prices still declining\">Seattle Times<\/a>, 10.05.2009<\/em>)<br \/>\n(<em>Eric Pryne, <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/realestate\/2010007253_homesales06.html\" title=\"King County home sales surge in September, but prices continue to fall year-over-year\">Seattle Times<\/a>, 10.06.2009<\/em>)<br \/>\n(<em>John Stang, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/410811_houseprices5.html\" title=\"King County home sales surge, but pitfalls remain\">Seattle P-I<\/a>, 10.05.2009<\/em>)<br \/>\n(<em>Mike Benbow, <a href=\"http:\/\/heraldnet.com\/article\/20091006\/BIZ\/710069925\/1005\" title=\"Prices down, but home sales up 9 percent in county\">Everett Herald<\/a>, 10.06.2009<\/em>)<br \/>\n(<em>C.R. Roberts, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thenewstribune.com\/business\/story\/906213.html\" title=\"Real estate rallies, agents say\">Tacoma News Tribune<\/a>, 10.06.2009<\/em>)<br \/>\n(<em>Rolf Boone, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theolympian.com\/topstories\/story\/994320.html\" title=\"Home sales start Rally, agents say\">Olympian<\/a>, 10.06.2009<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don&#8217;t have to. First up, an excerpt from the NWMLS press release itself: Northwest MLS brokers agree &quot;there&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about&quot; &#8220;There&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about,&#8221; according to one&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[198],"tags":[432,23,106,292,127,36,196,103,311,118,431,584,19,31,593,34],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-7471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-beeson","tag-benbow","tag-boone","tag-bottom-calling","tag-crellin","tag-everett_herald","tag-johnlscott","tag-olympian","tag-pryne","tag-reporting_roundup","tag-roberts","tag-rolph","tag-seattle_pi","tag-seattle_times","tag-stang","tag-tacoma_tribune"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on! \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on! \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don&#8217;t have to. First up, an excerpt from the NWMLS press release itself: Northwest MLS brokers agree &quot;there&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about&quot; &#8220;There&#8217;s a lot to be optimistic about,&#8221; according to one...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/\",\"name\":\"September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on! \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2009-10-06T19:48:15+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/06\/september-reporting-roundup-get-your-surge-rally-on\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"September Reporting Roundup: Get your SURGE RALLY on!\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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