{"id":8158,"date":"2009-12-03T13:51:19","date_gmt":"2009-12-03T21:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=8158"},"modified":"2009-12-03T16:05:41","modified_gmt":"2009-12-04T00:05:41","slug":"nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/","title":{"rendered":"NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats have been published by the NWMLS.  Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: <a title=\"Move-up buyers, extended\/expanded tax credits boost home sales; Northwest MLS brokers expect momentum to continue in 2010\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nwrealestate.com\/nwrpub\/common\/news.cfm\">Move-up buyers, extended\/expanded tax credits boost home sales; Northwest MLS brokers expect momentum to continue in 2010<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):<\/p>\n<style>.CNNTable {margin: 5px auto 15px;} .CNNTable td {padding: 0px 5px; text-align: center; font-size: .9em;} .top_row {font-weight: bold;} .CNNTable img {border:0;margin:0;}<\/style>\n<table class=\"CNNTable\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\">\n<tr class=\"top_row\">\n<td style=\"font-size: 105%; border-top: 0; border-left: 0;\">November 2009<\/td>\n<td>Number<\/td>\n<td>MOM<\/td>\n<td>YOY<\/td>\n<td>Buyers<\/td>\n<td>Sellers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Active Listings<\/td>\n<td>8,218<\/td>\n<td>-7.3%<\/td>\n<td>-19.2%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Closed Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,574<\/td>\n<td>-10.5%<\/td>\n<td>+81.1%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">SAAS (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/27\/seasonally-adjusted-active-supply-a-new-measure-of-market-virility\/\" title=\"Seasonally Adjusted Active Supply: A New Measure of Market Virility\">?<\/a>)<\/td>\n<td>1.48<\/td>\n<td>-8.5%<\/td>\n<td>-47.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Pending Sales<\/td>\n<td>1,581<\/td>\n<td>-31.1%<\/td>\n<td>+35.9%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Months of Supply<\/td>\n<td>5.2<\/td>\n<td>+34.5%<\/td>\n<td>-40.6%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\">Median Price<a title=\"Median Price Not Telling the Whole Truth\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/08\/median-price-still-being-distorted-by-geographic-shifts-in-sales\/\">*<\/a><\/td>\n<td>$370,000<\/td>\n<td>-2.0%<\/td>\n<td>-6.3%<\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/up-green.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<td><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p>The 2000-2007 average decline in closed sales from October to November was 12.8%, at 10.5%, the fake expiration of the tax credit did not boost November closings quite as much as I was expecting.  Could it be that the strength of the tax credit was already wearing off before they even decided to extend it?<\/p>\n<p>It is interesting to note that after spending the previous seven months in excess of 2,000, pending sales dropped through the floor in November, taking the largest one-month tumble on record.  The average October to November drop in pending sales 2000-2008 is 13.7.  Contrast that with 2009&#8217;s 31.1% drop.  (<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCoSFHPendingM2M2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\">Here&#8217;s a chart<\/a> from the <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a> for those month-to-month numbers.)  Not too surprising considering that November pendings would have been too late to qualify under the old tax credit deadline, and there is no urgency anymore to rush to beat the new deadline.<\/p>\n<p>As we head into winter, I&#8217;m comfortable now calling the winners in May&#8217;s poll: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/05\/17\/poll-guess-the-maximum-1-month-total-closed-sfh-sales-in-king-co-for-2009\/\" title=\"Poll: Guess the maximum 1-month total closed SFH sales in King Co. for 2009\">Guess the maximum 1-month total closed SFH sales in King Co. for 2009<\/a>.  1,750-2,000 takes the prize.  Only 12 of 123 voters selected the correct answer.  Congratulations to deejayoh and me, as well as <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/06\/nwmls-sales-edge-above-08-median-up-5-mom-down-12-yoy\/#comment-77561\">four other registered commenters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><del datetime=\"2009-12-04T00:01:15+00:00\">I don&#8217;t have access to my full spreadsheets at the moment, so I&#8217;ll update this post later today with the charts and updated spreadsheet download link.<\/del> <em>Post updated.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Feel free to download the updated <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xlsx)]\">Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet<\/a>, and here&#8217;s <a title=\"Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003)\" href=\"[download(Seattle_Bubble.xls)]\">a copy in Excel 2003 format<\/a>.  Click below for the rest of the usual monthly graphs.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a look at pending sales, closed sales, and a forecast of the next two months of closed sales that assumes the relationship seen between the two over the previous nine months continues (which is an admittedly dangerous assumption given the phoney November closing deadline of the tax credit).<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCo-Pend-Closed_2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Pending Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCo-Pend-Closed_2009-11-600x435.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Pending Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->Here&#8217;s how the closed sales situation is shaping up compared to previous years:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhclosed2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Closed Sales - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhclosed2009-11-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Closed Sales\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not much of a deviation from the usual seasonal decline this time around.  Certainly a much stronger showing than a year ago, but four other years actually had smaller month-to-month percentage declines from October to November.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Inventory\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhinventory2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Inventory - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhinventory2009-11-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Inventory\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Still following the usual seasonal pattern, coming in as one of the highest years on record, higher than every year from 2000 through 2006 except 2002.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the supply\/demand YOY graph.  In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the &#8220;demand&#8221; in the following two charts is now represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosupplyvsdemandpct2009-11-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the first time I actually had to (significantly) adjust the <em>upper<\/em> bound for the closed sales vertical axis.  That&#8217;s probably sustainable, right?  <em>(sarcasm)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County Supply vs Demand - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosupplyvsdemand2009-11-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County Supply vs Demand\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the median home price YOY change graph:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhprices2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhprices2009-11-600x408.png\" alt=\"King County SFH YOY Price Change\" width=\"600\" height=\"408\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 5px auto; width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"King County SFH Prices\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-11.png\" rel=\"lightbox[8158]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 0; margin: 5px\" title=\"King County SFH Prices - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/kingcosfhpricesyearly2009-11-600x437.png\" alt=\"King County SFH Prices\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dropped back below May 2005 pricing.  May 2005: $370,500.  November 2009: $370,000.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a few news blurbs to hold you over until tomorrow&#8217;s reporting roundup.<\/p>\n<p>Seattle Times: <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/businesstechnology\/2010415305_webhomesales03.html\" title=\"Home sales shoot up in November from year ago thanks to federal tax credit\">Home sales shoot up in November from year ago thanks to federal tax credit<\/a><br \/>\nSeattle P-I:  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/local\/412880_housing03.html\" title=\"House sales up 81% in November, prices down in King County\">House sales up 81% in November, prices down in King County<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Move-up buyers, extended\/expanded tax credits boost home sales; Northwest MLS brokers expect momentum to continue in 2010. Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[6,521,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-8158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-nwmls","tag-saas","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"November market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here&#8217;s the NWMLS press release: Move-up buyers, extended\/expanded tax credits boost home sales; Northwest MLS brokers expect momentum to continue in 2010. Here&#8217;s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/images-global\/down-red.gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/\",\"name\":\"NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCo-Pend-Closed_2009-11-600x435.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-12-03T21:51:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2009-12-04T00:05:41+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCo-Pend-Closed_2009-11.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/KingCo-Pend-Closed_2009-11.png\",\"width\":\"912\",\"height\":\"662\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/03\/nwmls-tax-credit-boosts-november-closed-sales-as-pending-sales-drop-through-the-floor\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NWMLS: Tax Credit Boosts November Closed Sales as Pending Sales Drop Through the Floor\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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