{"id":8334,"date":"2009-12-18T11:35:25","date_gmt":"2009-12-18T19:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=8334"},"modified":"2009-12-18T12:04:47","modified_gmt":"2009-12-18T20:04:47","slug":"personal-incomes-up-slightly-homes-still-overpriced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/18\/personal-incomes-up-slightly-homes-still-overpriced\/","title":{"rendered":"Personal Incomes Up Slightly, Homes Still Overpriced"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest (third quarter) personal income stats from the Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a> came out today. Washington State showed a 0.6% increase from the second quarter to the third, but a record 1.5% year-over-year drop from the third quarter 2008.<\/p>\n

I thought it would be interesting to compare this measure to home prices. Keep in mind that what we’re looking at here is statewide income and King\/Snohomish\/Pierce home prices, so it’s not a perfect comparison. For this chart I have indexed the BEA data to Q1 1990 = 100, and re-indexed the Case-Shiller index to January 1990 = 100.<\/p>\n

\"Personal<\/a><\/p>\n

This is a similar comparison to one Deejayoh made in June<\/a>, but the statewide data is released quarterly (vs. yearly for county data), so we can get a more timely snapshot. When we view the same type of x-y scatterplot that Deejayoh posted, we can see the reversion to the long-term trend as well. The following chart is based on the raw BEA and Case-Shiller data without any re-indexing.<\/p>\n

\"Home<\/a><\/p>\n

Home prices are still slightly above where they would be if their 1990-2000 relationship between incomes had held steady, with the latest Case-Shiller index reading coming in around 12% higher than the trendline. This falls roughly inline with my expectation that Seattle-area home prices probably have about another 10% left to fall before they reach a natural market equilibrium.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest (third quarter) personal income stats from the Bureau of Economic Analysis came out today. Washington State showed a 0.6% increase from the second quarter to the third, but a record 1.5% year-over-year drop from the third quarter 2008. I thought it would be interesting to compare this measure to home prices. Keep in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[606,86,607,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-8334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-bea","tag-case-shiller","tag-personal-income","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"\nPersonal Incomes Up Slightly, Homes Still Overpriced \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/18\/personal-incomes-up-slightly-homes-still-overpriced\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Personal Incomes Up Slightly, Homes Still Overpriced \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The latest (third quarter) personal income stats from the Bureau of Economic Analysis came out today. 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