{"id":8776,"date":"2010-01-06T10:16:09","date_gmt":"2010-01-06T18:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=8776"},"modified":"2010-01-06T13:38:31","modified_gmt":"2010-01-06T21:38:31","slug":"reporting-roundup-pretend-pending-pumping-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/06\/reporting-roundup-pretend-pending-pumping-party\/","title":{"rendered":"Reporting Roundup: Pretend Pending Pumping Party"},"content":{"rendered":"

Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don’t have to.<\/p>\n

Here’s a link to this month’s NWMLS press release: Western Washington pending home sales mark best December since 2006<\/a><\/p>\n

“Home for the holidays” took on special meaning for 4,399 buyers whose purchase offers were accepted during December, according to the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That volume of pending sales was up more than 35 percent from a year ago and marked the best December since 2006.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Take special note of the focus on the totally unreliable measure of pending sales in the headline and lead paragraph in this news release. You’ll be seeing a lot more of that spin repeated in the following articles. This was my favorite part of the release though (emphasis mine).<\/p>\n

“Affordability has never been better<\/strong>,” said Dick Fulton, a past chairman of the NWMLS board of directors whose career spans more than two decades.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bzzt, wrong. The following chart is updated through Q1, and the affordability situation hasn’t changed much since then, coming in at 97.0 based on December’s data.<\/p>\n

\"King<\/a><\/p>\n

“Affordability has never been better” only for values of “never” that exclude almost every year prior to 2003.<\/p>\n

Click below for this month’s roundup of real estate reporting, or the lack thereof.<\/p>\n

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times<\/em>: Home sales on King County’s Eastside lead December activity<\/a><\/p>\n

Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he was “pleasantly surprised” by the December sales volumes throughout Western Washington.<\/p>\n

He had anticipated a bigger drop from November, when many first-time buyers rushed to close to meet a deadline \u2014 later extended \u2014 to qualify for an $8,000 federal tax credit. In King County, the month-to-month decline was just 7 percent.<\/p>\n

As for the strong sales on the Eastside, Crellin speculated they may be fueled in part by sellers with mounting financial troubles who now are willing to accept lower prices than a few months ago.<\/p>\n

“I suspect there is some bargain-hunting going on in those neighborhoods,” Crellin said of Kirkland and Redmond.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As I noted yesterday, between 2000 and 2008 closed sales increased<\/em> an average of 1.85% between November and December, so a month-to-month decline of 7% still represents about 140 fewer sales than we may have expected to see had we followed the historical trend for this time of year. That said, I’m sure that some of the fall off we would have expected to see was mitigated by the extension of the tax credit. Without the extension we probably would have seen a month-to-month drop in excess of 10%.<\/p>\n

Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I<\/em>: <\/a><\/p>\n

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service showed pending sales of condominiums and single-family homes in King County \u2013 a key indicator of recent activity in the housing market \u2013 were down 10.93 percent in December compared with a month earlier.<\/p>\n

Activity generally slows as the holidays approach. While 2009 was no different, the drop in pending home sales countywide was the smallest since at least 2001. Since 2002, pending home sales have declined an average of 22.98 percent November to December.<\/p>\n

In Seattle, pending sales were down 12.16 percent from November, but up 32.7 percent from a year ago.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If pending sales were being measured in the same way that they had been up until 2008, these types of comparisons would be more meaningful. As it is, there is a well-demonstrated disconnect<\/a> between the current measure of pending sales and actual closings that makes looking at pending sales little more than an amusing distraction.<\/p>\n

Mike Benbow, Everett Herald<\/em>: <\/a><\/p>\n

Home sales in Snohomish County increased significantly in December and strong pending sales gave agents hope for the new year.<\/p>\n

There were 779 homes sold in the county last month, a 78 percent increase in comparison to a year ago. Pending sales, those that begin last month and should close in January, were up 31 percent, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Tuesday.
\n…
\nThe local home sales were in distinct contrast with the national figures released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, which showed a sharp drop in November sales of existing homes. The sales of new homes are reported separately by the national group.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In addition to also taking the NWMLS bait and focusing on the useless pending sales numbers, Benbow also makes the same bizarre mistake that was made (and later corrected)<\/a> by the SeattlePI.com writer yesterday. Comparing the national month-to-month data from October to November with the Seattle area month-to-month data from November to December is completely nonsensical under normal circumstances, but with the fake November expiration of the tax credit thrown into the mix it becomes even more foolish. So much for journalism.<\/p>\n

C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune<\/em>: <\/a><\/p>\n

Puyallup Realtor and president of Washington Realtors Bill Riley was fully attentive and simply pleased Tuesday at numbers released by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is good,\u201d he said, pointing to a figure showing pending home sales in Pierce County in December were up 30.19 percent over the same month in 2008.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s good news,\u201d he said. \u201cAny time pending sales are up 30 percent, you have to pay attention.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Again with the pending sales. What a waste.<\/p>\n

Rolf Boone, The Olympian<\/em>: <\/a><\/p>\n

The Thurston County real estate market finished on a high note in December after a year that was characterized by fewer home sales, falling prices and foreclosures. <\/p>\n

Instead, home sales surged nearly 30 percent in the final month of 2009, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Last month, 226 homes sold compared with 174 in the same month a year ago, an increase of 29.8 percent, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. Although more homes sold in December 2009 than in December 2008, fewer homes sold last month than the 277 units that sold in November 2009.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It isn’t stated explicitly in the article, but those are actual closed sales numbers. Kudos to Rolf Boone for ignoring the nonsense pending hype and looking at the actual hard data this month.<\/p>\n

Here are a few bonus stories from local TV and radio:<\/p>\n

Meg Coyle, KING 5<\/em>: Home sales above average in King County<\/a>
\nBellamy Pailthorp, KPLU<\/em>: Home Sales Still Going Strong in December<\/a>
\nTracy Ellis, KGMI<\/em> (Bellingham): County Sees Home Sales Increase For 2009<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding that KING 5 headline, in December 2009 there were 1,462 closed SFH sales in King County and 1,413 pending sales. The 2000-2008 average closed and pendings for December are 1,862 and 1,486, respectively (and the pending numbers aren’t really comparable). So no, home sales are not “above average.” Sorry.<\/p>\n

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times<\/a>, 01.05.2010<\/em>)
\n(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times<\/a>, 01.06.2010<\/em>)
\n(Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I<\/a>, 01.05.2010<\/em>)
\n(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald<\/a>, 01.06.2010<\/em>)
\n(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune<\/a>, 01.06.2010<\/em>)
\n(Rolf Boone, Olympian<\/a>, 01.06.2010<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don’t have to. 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