{"id":8790,"date":"2010-01-07T15:15:45","date_gmt":"2010-01-07T23:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=8790"},"modified":"2010-03-05T07:26:17","modified_gmt":"2010-03-05T15:26:17","slug":"2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/","title":{"rendered":"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since this month’s NWMLS press release focused on pending sales again, and there has been some discussion in the comments about what the relationship between pending and closed sales looks like in recent months, I thought it would be interesting to look at a few charts of the two data sets in a few different perspectives.<\/p>\n

First up, here’s an update to one I posted last month, with the monthly pending and closed numbers as well as a forecast of closed sales based on a linear relationship with the pending sales from two months prior:<\/p>\n

\"King<\/a><\/p>\n

Not much change there. The closed sales for December came in a little lower than our linear forecast predicted, but not by a lot. I still expect January’s closed sales to drop below 1,250 based on this relationship.<\/p>\n

Next, here’s a chart of the difference between each month’s closed sales and that same<\/em> month’s pending sales for 2009 as well as the average of 2000-2008:<\/p>\n

\"Closed<\/a><\/p>\n

Every month in 2009 but February and November came in with a significantly lower difference between the two than the nine-year average. This means a lower than usual number of closed sales compared to the number of pending sales, and December was no different.<\/p>\n

Lastly, here is a look at the total difference between calendar-year pending sales and closed sales for every year since 2000 (which is as far back as I have access to reliable data):<\/p>\n

\"Pending<\/a><\/p>\n

2008 had twice as high a difference than any year prior, and 2009 came in with over four times the discrepancy of any year 2000-2007.<\/p>\n

So if you’re wondering why I continue to insist that pending sales have become a useless measure, wonder no more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since this month’s NWMLS press release focused on pending sales again, and there has been some discussion in the comments about what the relationship between pending and closed sales looks like in recent months, I thought it would be interesting to look at a few charts of the two data sets in a few different…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[387,6,386],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-8790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","tag-closed","tag-nwmls","tag-pending"],"yoast_head":"\n2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Since this month’s NWMLS press release focused on pending sales again, and there has been some discussion in the comments about what the relationship between pending and closed sales looks like in recent months, I thought it would be interesting to look at a few charts of the two data sets in a few different...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/\",\"name\":\"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12-600x435.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-01-07T23:15:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2010-03-05T15:26:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png\",\"width\":\"912\",\"height\":\"662\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/\",\"http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble","twitter_description":"Since this month’s NWMLS press release focused on pending sales again, and there has been some discussion in the comments about what the relationship between pending and closed sales looks like in recent months, I thought it would be interesting to look at a few charts of the two data sets in a few different...","twitter_image":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/","name":"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12-600x435.png","datePublished":"2010-01-07T23:15:45+00:00","dateModified":"2010-03-05T15:26:17+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Pend-Closed-Forecast_2009-12.png","width":"912","height":"662"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/07\/2009-pending-vs-closed-sales-wrap-up\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"2009 Pending vs. Closed Sales Wrap-Up"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer \/ internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.","sameAs":["http:\/\/SeattleBubble.com\/","http:\/\/facebook.com\/is.totally.pointless","https:\/\/x.com\/The_Tim"],"url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/author\/timothyellis\/"}]}},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6wh0F-2hM","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8790"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=8790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}