{"id":895,"date":"2007-06-27T09:20:23","date_gmt":"2007-06-27T16:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/06\/27\/seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle\/"},"modified":"2007-06-27T23:02:26","modified_gmt":"2007-06-28T06:02:26","slug":"seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/06\/27\/seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Seattle Just Maybe “Behind the Cycle”"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices<\/a> data came out yesterday. The data runs a few months behind, so this release covers April. Here’s Aubrey Cohen’s take on the numbers in the P-I<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Seattle continues to defy a national trend of declining home values, but city house price increases are slowing, according to a Tuesday report.<\/p>\n

Seattle-area prices for existing houses in April were up 1.3 percent from February and 9.6 percent from April 2006, according to Standard & Poor’s S&P\/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.<\/p>\n

Both were the largest increases among the indices’ 20 major metropolitan areas, with Dallas equaling the monthly boost.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Pretty much the standard, rah-rah fluff. Aren’t we special, yadda-yadda.<\/p>\n

But wait, there’s more! (Emphasis mine.)<\/em><\/p>\n

But Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, noted in a statement that Seattle’s year-to-year price increase was down from 17.8 percent in April 2006.“No region is immune to the weakening price returns,”<\/strong> he said.<\/p>\n

The Seattle area’s year-to-year price increases have declined for 14 months, and April’s 9.6 percent rise was the lowest since May 2004.<\/p>\n

“That is still a marvelous growth rate,” said Maureen Maitland, vice president of index analysis for S&P, in an interview Tuesday. “(Seattle) has held out quite a lot compared with others.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

Seattle also may be behind the cycle<\/strong> because the previous tech bust in 2001 delayed its entry into the latest housing boom, she said.<\/p>\n

Seattle’s appreciation peaked in November 2005 \u2014 14 months after the 20-city index. Hard-hit cities such as Detroit and Boston peaked in late 2003 and early 2004.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What’s that you say? Seattle may just be “behind the cycle”? Now where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right here<\/a>. Over<\/a> and over<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here’s another graph that attempts to visualize this theory. This one plots Seattle & Portland vs. Los Angeles & San Diego year-over-year price appreciation according to Case-Shiller. I’ve shifted San Diego and Los Angeles to the right by 18 months in order to roughly line up the period of peak appreciation.<\/p>\n

\"Case-Shiller<\/a>
\nClick to enlarge<\/a><\/div>\n

Those curves sure look similar to me (note: “similar” not “identical”<\/em>). If Seattle & Portland’s respective housing bubbles play out similarly to San Diego and Los Angeles, next Spring and Summer could be very<\/em> interesting in the Pacific Northwest.<\/p>\n

(MacroMarkets LLC, S&P\/Case-Shiller HPI<\/a>, 06.2007<\/em>)
\n(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I<\/a>, 06.26.2007<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices data came out yesterday. The data runs a few months behind, so this release covers April. Here’s Aubrey Cohen’s take on the numbers in the P-I: Seattle continues to defy a national trend of declining home values, but city house price increases are slowing, according to a Tuesday report….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[90,138,136,86],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-seattle_is_special","tag-behind-the-cycle","tag-california","tag-case-shiller"],"yoast_head":"\nSeattle Just Maybe "Behind the Cycle" \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/06\/27\/seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Seattle Just Maybe "Behind the Cycle" \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices data came out yesterday. 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