{"id":9751,"date":"2010-02-23T07:12:36","date_gmt":"2010-02-23T15:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?p=9751"},"modified":"2010-05-25T06:58:19","modified_gmt":"2010-05-25T13:58:19","slug":"case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the <a title=\"S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller\u00ae Home Price Indices\" href=\"http:\/\/www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com\/\">Case-Shiller Home Price Index<\/a>.  According to December data,<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Down<\/em> 0.7% November to December.<br \/>\nUp 0.2% November to December (seasonally adjusted).<br \/>\n<strong><em>Down<\/em> 7.9% YOY.<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>Down<\/em> 23.3% from the July 2007 peak<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Last year prices fell 3.6% from November to December (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices were down 13.4%.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s our offset graph, with L.A. &amp; San Diego time-shifted from Seattle &amp; Portland by 17 months.  San Diego was above zero again, while LA was right at zero.  Portland came in at -5.4%, Los Angeles at 0.0%, and San Diego at +2.7%, all better than Seattle.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[9751]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12-600x437.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast\" width=\"600\" height=\"437\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> This graph is <strong>not intended to be predictive<\/strong>.  It is for entertainment purposes only.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/\" title=\"Tableau Software\">Tableau Software<\/a>  (check and un-check the boxes on the right):<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 600px; height: 700px; margin: 0 auto;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"604\" height=\"669\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"name\" value=\"Case-Shiller-YOY\/YOYChange\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><noscript>YOY Change <br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"YOY Change \" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/static\/images\/Case-Shiller-YOY-YOYChange_rss.png\" height=\"100%\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div style=\"width:604px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px; margin-top: -6px; color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"padding-left: 488px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/Case-Shiller-YOY\/YOYChange\" target=\"_blank\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Also in positive YOY territory: San Francisco, Denver, DC, Boston, and Dallas.<\/p>\n<p>In December, fourteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year <em>increases<\/em>) than Seattle (same as August through November).  San Francisco at +4.8, Dallas at +2.9%, Denver at +0.5%, San Diego at +2.7%, Washington, DC at +1.9%, Boston at +0.5%, Los Angeles at 0.0%, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seattlepi.com\/business\/404163_economy23ww.html\" title=\"Seattle Economists: At Least We're Not Cleveland\">Cleveland at -1.2%<\/a>, Minneapolis at -2.3%, Charlotte at -3.8%, Atlanta at -4.0%, Portland at -5.4%, New York at -6.3%, and Chicago at -7.2%.<\/p>\n<p>The only other cities still experiencing larger year-over-year declines than Seattle are Phoenix, Miami, Detroit, Tampa, and Las Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>Because I can, here&#8217;s an interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through December.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 600px; height: 700px; margin: 0 auto;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"604\" height=\"669\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"name\" value=\"Case-Shiller\/Case-ShillerHPI\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><noscript>Case-Shiller HPI <br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI \" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/static\/images\/Case-Shiller-Case-ShillerHPI_rss.png\" height=\"100%\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><\/p>\n<div style=\"width:604px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px; margin-top: -6px; color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"padding-left: 488px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/Case-Shiller\/Case-ShillerHPI\" target=\"_blank\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph <a title=\"Comment by CrystalBall\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/01\/29\/case-shiller-november-seattle-playing-catch-up\/#comment-38661\">created by reader CrystalBall<\/a>.  This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak.  The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_Decline-From-Peak_2009-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[9751]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_Decline-From-Peak_2009-12-600x435.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In the twenty-eight months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 23.3%, another new post-peak low.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a complementary chart to that last one.  This one shows the total change in the index since March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009 - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-Shiller-2009-Bounce_2009-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[9751]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009 - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-Shiller-2009-Bounce_2009-12-600x435.png\" alt=\"Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not all markets are bouncing equally.<\/p>\n<p>The following chart takes the post-bubble years of 2007, 2008, and 2009 and indexes each January&#8217;s Case-Shiller HPI to 100 so we can get a picture of how this year&#8217;s declines compare to last year:<\/p>\n<p style=\"width: 600px; font-size: 0.8em; text-align: center;\"><a title=\"Post-Bubble Seattle Case-Shiller HPI by Year - Click to enlarge\" href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-Shiller-by-Year_2009-12.png\" rel=\"lightbox[9751]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Post-Bubble Seattle Case-Shiller HPI by Year - Click to enlarge\" src=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-Shiller-by-Year_2009-12-600x435.png\" alt=\"Post-Bubble Seattle Case-Shiller HPI by Year\" width=\"600\" height=\"435\" style=\"border:0;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Almost the entire difference in this year&#8217;s performance came in the last four months of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle&#8217;s price tiers.<\/p>\n<p>(<em>Home Price Indices, <a title=\"S&amp;P\/Case-Shiller\u00ae Home Price Indices\" href=\"http:\/\/www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com\/\">Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s<\/a>, 02.23.2010<\/em>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to December data, Down 0.7% November to December. Up 0.2% November to December (seasonally adjusted). Down 7.9% YOY. Down 23.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 3.6% from November to December (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,616],"tags":[138,136,86,222,200],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-9751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stats","category-counties","tag-behind-the-cycle","tag-california","tag-case-shiller","tag-graphs","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Let&#8217;s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to December data, Down 0.7% November to December. Up 0.2% November to December (seasonally adjusted). Down 7.9% YOY. Down 23.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 3.6% from November to December (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@The_Tim\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@SeattleBubble\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"The Tim\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\",\"name\":\"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12-600x437.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-02-23T15:12:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2010-05-25T13:58:19+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png\",\"width\":\"919\",\"height\":\"670\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Seattle Bubble\",\"description\":\"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f\",\"name\":\"The Tim\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g\",\"caption\":\"The Tim\"},\"description\":\"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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According to December data, Down 0.7% November to December. Up 0.2% November to December (seasonally adjusted). Down 7.9% YOY. Down 23.3% from the July 2007 peak Last year prices fell 3.6% from November to December (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices...","twitter_image":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png","twitter_creator":"@The_Tim","twitter_site":"@SeattleBubble","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"The Tim","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/","name":"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter \u2022 Seattle Bubble","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12-600x437.png","datePublished":"2010-02-23T15:12:36+00:00","dateModified":"2010-05-25T13:58:19+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Case-ShillerHPI_WestCoast2009-12.png","width":"919","height":"670"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/23\/case-shiller-seattle-prices-headed-south-for-winter\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/","name":"Seattle Bubble","description":"local\u00a0real\u00a0estate\u00a0news, statistics,\u00a0and\u00a0commentary without\u00a0the\u00a0sales\u00a0spin.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/7de7c0dd14bee1a2c67f7ce86bc4505f","name":"The Tim","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/37756956c11dcc50d2559761ffa5ee70","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/19e5770990a1681615608091b2de571b10c3e03bbac7d07bb2ae15297ee72fbc?s=96&d=retro&r=g","caption":"The Tim"},"description":"Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. 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