Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

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Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

Postby dls » Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:12 pm

So, I'm out of my apartment due to a sprinkler pipe burst that has left it uninhabitable. Renter's insurance is covering 'alternate living expenses' but it is not unlimited. I'm debating whether to find another apartment, or breakdown and buy a place. I have good job security (company had a really good day yesterday), ~100K for down payment, fees, etc, and would be in the place at least 10 years, possibly closer to 15 years. My interest is in having a place that is mine, not a place as an investment (mutual funds are investments). If nothing else I can do my own maintenance and not be tossed out because some e-jit couldn't be bothered to insulate the sprinkler pipes!. I think I'd prefer a house, I well know the maintenance/upkeep of a house, but a decent condo might be ok (location, construction, etc).

So, given the above, assuming there may or may not be some small further decline, what is the group thoughts on buying (in the January/February timeframe) vs. renting?
dls
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Re: Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

Postby ira s » Wed Dec 16, 2009 8:52 pm

dls,
So long as you understand that :
1. Renting will give you more home for your monthly expense/ the mortgage may be significantly more expensive than the rent unless you are willing either to buy something smaller or in an area perceived as less desirable and
2. Pipes can burst whether you're the homeowner or the renter, and
3. Home prices are likely to continue downward in the near term,
Then buying can make sense from the perspective of "it's yours and you can do what you want with it", that you're not at the whim of some landlord, or subject to his or her neglect ( If something gets neglected in the home you own, it ain't the landlord's fault)...
There's some disagreement amongst the fine folks here about what home values will be in ten years. I personally don't believe that a home will be worth less than it is now ten years from now, but I'm also doubtful that it'll be worth much more.
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Re: Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

Postby crucifiction » Wed Dec 16, 2009 9:11 pm

Buy in the winter sucks because the supply is limited to either garbage or things incredibly overpriced and no motivated seller. I would wait for spring just for that alone, if you horizon is really 10-15+ years you want to have the best options available to choose from. Also it would depend on your family situation, are you married and/or in a long term relationship? If not, buying a home thinking you have a 10-15 year timeframe is probably very unlikely and will just lock you out of jobs elsewhere if need be, and you will end up selling it whenever you want to move in with the next S.O. Other than that, since you think the risk of decline is small (I don't), I would just say to not put $100k into it, put the minimum down you can and are comfortable with and keep the cash as a cushion.
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Re: Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

Postby eskercurve » Sat Jan 02, 2010 9:40 am

It depends.

What are your extenuating circumstances? Another poster has the good point that if you're single and just want to buy a home for profit, then you're likely to be disappointed and if you want the flexibility to move because of a job, a house will severely constrict your movements, and you'll likely lose money in the next year.

However, if you're like me, and want to get away from stupid, loud, ignorant neighbors, want to customize where you live, and have a family on the horizon, or you simply want to live here, try not to get rich quick, realize a home is four walls and a roof with a place to hang your hat, and are reasonably secure in your job, then by all means buy.

It also depends on where you buy. Near the city neighborhoods and Bellevue and Kirkland will likely remain desirable, but places like Shoreline, Edmonds, Everett, and south of the city core will likely remain weak.
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Re: Reasonable to buy with a 10+ year outlook?

Postby dls » Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:24 am

I'm single, not planning on leaving this area in the next 10-15 + years since, all things considered, it offers the best quality of life/affordability for me. My position at the Lazy B (Design/Compliance on everything but the 787) is about as secure as any position anywhere (except probably gov't jobs). I think south Snohomish county (Lynnwood, Mountlake Terrace, Edmonds) is close enough to Seattle/Eastside to be much less affected by a Lazy B shrinkage than say south King county, Everett/Marysville, etc. Much of the commute traffic I see to/from south SnoCo is to/from Seattle/Eastside. I am also expecting significant inflation to start ramping up in the next year or two (three?) due to the Feds dumping money into the economy. A fixed rate loan at today's fairly low rates will help mitigate future high inflation effects. Now to go find a small decent place.
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