Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

It appears as if the condo market in Peirce County worsened last month; YOY appreciation of median sales price was a paltry 0.59%. In June, YOY appreciation for condos was 2.07%, and in July 2006 YOY appreciation was 10.93%. It's pretty safe to say that this market has collapsed. Here is a fig for YOY appreciation of Pierce CO condos:



The rest of the market in Pierce Co improved somewhat from last month, but is still pretty dismal. YOY appreciation of median sales price for SFH was 4.22%. In July 2006, appreciation for Pierce CO SFHs was a whopping 15.81%!

Median price for SFH+condos appreciated at a dismal 3.31%, but bounced back from last month when it was an ugly 0.82%. One year ago, appreciation for SFH+condos was 15.91%.

Here is a figure that illustrates YOY appreciation of SFH, condos, and SFH+condos:



What about predictions? Well, I don't exactly own a crystal ball, but here is what I think.

Pierce Co Condos: I think we will see a bounce in YOY appreciation for Aug 2007, but my guess is that we will see negative appreciation for Sept. This is because Sept 2006 was an especially strong month for condos.

Pierce Co SFH: I think we will continue to see + YOY appreciation in SFHs until about Jan 2008, at which point appreciation will start to dip into negative territory.

Of course, all of this depends upon what happens with foreclosures and the coming ARM tsunami...