Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

I know the Economist has run some numbers like this in the past, but I'll throw it out to the crowd here. I realize the market probably won't just flatline for years, but I think this is an interesting hypothetical.

I'd be up for a time to bottom given a -5% / year rate also.

I give it ten years, but I think it will dip and then rebound (rather than flat-lining) before going back to 2005 prices, which will hopefully allow our salaries to catch up assuming there is no recession in the next couple years - longer timeframe if that's the case.

I've been saying "20 cents on the dollar by 2010" for some time now. I stand by that prediction.

Given the breathtaking collapse of subprime finance, you have to figure that contagion will spread to the more reputable tranches like the bird flu. I may have to move my time frame in to 2009.

This is getting uglier a lot faster than I thought it would.

Set

Typical peak to trough is usually 3 years. Peak to peak is 6 years.

This is not a normal real estate cycle... My best guess is going to be 5-7 years to trough and 10-14 years to next Peak.

Japan anyone?

Actualy Japan was 15 years peak to trough... One could only hope it'll be 7 years.