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Seattle Bubble Forum Archive • View topic - Where to invest in a bear market?

Where to invest in a bear market?

Buy a home to live in. Invest your money somewhere else.

Moderators: synthetik, The Tim, Lake Hills Renter

Where to invest in a bear market?

Postby emcityjill » Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:20 am

emcityjill
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Location: Queen Anne

Postby synthetik » Sat Mar 03, 2007 4:04 pm

synthetik
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 9:39 pm
Location: Happy Renting in Capitol Hill

Anyone else have $0.02 they'd like to toss in?

Postby emcityjill » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:34 pm

emcityjill
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Postby synthetik » Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:42 pm

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Re: Where to invest in a bear market?

Postby 2cents » Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:03 pm

Would the idea in a bear market not be to go against the crowd? When it comes to the property market, i think in about a years time it'll be worth thinking about a plan to make some house purchases and hold for the long term to benefit from teh price falls. There couldnt be a better time to apply the buy low sell high principle.

K
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Re: Where to invest in a bear market?

Postby lamont » Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:51 pm

here's some ETFs that are short various broad indexes:

PSQ,QID,DOG,DXD,SH,SDS,MYY,MZZ,RWM,TWM

the "ultrashort" ETFs in that list try to be 2x leveraged, so if you have conviction that the S&P500 is going to fall you'd buy SDS rather than SH.

standard disclaimers apply.
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Re: Where to invest in a bear market?

Postby synthetik » Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:47 pm

How good was my investment advice Since Feb 18 2007? How'd you do on your house shug?

Longs:

GLD 65.31 to 92.29, 42% gain
SLV 139.01 to 180.15, 30% gain
PAAS 28.60 to 39.30, 38% gain
USO 49.35 to 87.19, 77% gain
NEM 46.51 to 46.56, --flat--
GG 28.67 to 40.63, 42% gain

Shorts:

WM 45.23 to 11.88, 74% drop (100 Jan 35 Puts purchased for 1.25 on Oct 16 would have paid out $250,000 before Jan 08 expiration a cost of only $12,500)

BKUNA 26.48 to 4.51, 83% drop
CFC 41.70 to 5.90, 86% drop
WFC 35.60 to 30.26, 15% drop (still heavily short)
WB 57.90 to 27.48, 53% drop (still heavily short)
NDE 37.88 to 4.51, 89% drop
RWT 61.63 to 31.61
CC 21.29 to 4.45
BBY 50.07 to 42.19 (still short!)
LOW 33.44 to 23.33 (still short)
HD 41.44 to 27.67 (still heavily short)
TXN 30.78 to 29.55, flat
AMZN, 40.06 to 74.39 (ouch! hope you didn't short this one)
RIMM, 45 to 120.98 (ouch! ouch! Yeah, I many thousands already)
WHR, 93.61 to 87.05 (heavily short still)
GOOG, 469 to 439.16 (not short anymore, still a great short)

I hit some home runs with all my longs, hit grand slams with the lenders, hit a triple with retail and struck out on the MOMO (momentum stocks, RIMM, GOOG, AMZN)

What am I short today? Here are my current shorts, listed from greatest $ value to least:

WFC
NCC
IYR (Commercial RE ETF)
VNO (Commercial RE)
BXP (Commercial RE)
IBM
MS
BAC
COF
AMZN
CTX
JPM
RIMM
RTH (Retail Holders ETF, sucking wind thx to scum-sucking WMT)
RCL
BBY
IBM
MA
URBN
LM
HD
CCL
JOE
AAPL
GYMB
CRM
CMG
RYL
SPG (Commercial RE)
LOW
JWN

Keep in mind that most of these are LEAPS, so I have about 10 months before they expire. I'm also likely to lose my ass if the FED is somehow able to bail out the entire system, which looks more likely to completely implode. I generally trade in and out of these stocks and don't hold to expiration. Which is why I missed out on most of the $$ gains on WM, CFC... I'm trying the "hold to expiration" on NCC, been heavily short via PUTS on that sucker for 6 months and will try to ride it down to $3-4/share.

Get your soap and gunpowder ready ladies and gentlemen.
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