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Seattle Bubble Forum Archive • View topic - Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

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Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

Postby TJ_98370 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 3:51 pm

TJ_98370
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Re: Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

Postby rose-colored-coolaid » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:48 pm

interesting, I wonder how reliable it is. Like, if I bought options with 5 week contracts the Friday before the current month's options expire, can I anticipate a strong wednesday/thursday the next week regardless of what else is going on?

This might be worth investigating.
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Re: Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

Postby laxtosnoco » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:52 pm

Economists have studied this effect for some time and the studies have been somewhat split about whether option expiration creates a non-random pattern. Even those studies that do indicate non-randomness doesn't mean that there's a guaranteed payoff out there for the taking. Otherwise, wouldn't everybody figure the timing out to exploit it?

There are some people who theorize that large prop traders might be manipulating the market with very large positions around expiration dates.
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Re: Why the Market Goes Up When It Shouldn't

Postby siddha99 » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:34 am

Stop playing options. Start playing stock index futures. If you value lowest risk and highest liquidity, and your profits, you will make the switch.
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