what would have biggest impact on Seattle housing?

[sniglet]

Are the any events, or actions, that might cause a large downward impact of Seattle area real-estate? Here is my list of items that I think would cause a lot of grief in the local market, ordered by degree of problem:

- tightening of lending standards to require at least 10% down-payment and no piggyback loans
- Dow Jones Industrial Average drops below 10,000
- Boeing sees 10% of aircraft orders cancelled
- Microsoft institutes hiring freeze
- increased mortgage rates

Are there any other things that could have a significant negative impact on our local real-estate market (other than the impropobable bio-weapon attack or meteor hit)?

[jillayne]

Hi Sniglet,

Here are two ideas. How about small business failures and an increase in divorce rates.

With a slowing economy, we are bound to hear about an increase in small business failures. The top two reasons why people divorce are sex and money problems.

Failure of a small business and divorce are the top two reasons why people default on their mortgage. Well, at least those were at the top before someone invented subprime, pay-option, interest only ARMs.

Although my ideas might be slower in effecting the market, together they might have an impact.

I believe foreclosures are only going to go up across WA state. Defaults, short sales, and foreclosures will have an impact because more zip codes will move into that of "declining market areas" and higher downpayments will be required.

[redmondjp]

Ummm, Boeing losing a $54B tanker order?

(sorry, couldn't resist!)

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[jillayne]

Hi RCC,

It often takes two incomes to make a mortgage payment.

Divorce =

one person keeps the house, one person rents
sell the house, both rent
sell the house, both buy new homes.
one person keeps the house for sentimental reasons but really can't afford the entire payment and will eventually need to sell, the smart, unsentimental person moves on and rents OR buys.

Divorce = not necessarily lots of commissions.
Divorce = commissions earned are diluted during hours of compassionate listenng while you play junior marriage counselor for your client.

[Lake Hills Renter]

[aldreth]

Dual income can't afford squat in this area either.

[Alan]

It is almost enough to make you want to take your skills and use them elsewhere, isn't it?

[rose-colored-coolaid]

But with four incomes, you are money.