Waiting for 12,000
When is it gonna be?
Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow? Looks the the big end of day "drawdown" hasn't happened for a few days, but I'd still bet we are over 12k for Kingco SFH by month's end
Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow? Looks the the big end of day "drawdown" hasn't happened for a few days, but I'd still bet we are over 12k for Kingco SFH by month's end
Comments
I agree we will be solidly over 12k at months end.
On a related note, when will Alan have over 500 posts?
We've already passed 2007's peak of 11790.
As weird as it is to hear someone refer to themselves in the third person, it's even more confusing to read it. Unless there is a second Alan out there. Not that it matters much. I mean, he's still way shy of the 700 odd posts that any responsible blogger would put up. Right deejayoh?
Also recall that last month's month-end purge knocked over 350 off the 3/31 total of 10,970, to end up with a NWMLS official figure of 10,592. I have doubts that the NWMLS official figure for April month-end SFH inventory will be above 12,000. I'm predicting somewhere in the 11,800-11,900 range, which would still be a 54-56% YOY increase, and an 11-12% MOM increase.
King County
SFH: 12,001
Condo: 4,098
I just figured he was going to post the inventory figure hourly until he broke 500.
It looks like they haven't purged since the 18th. This is the longest I have seen it go without a morning drop. I guess we'll see a doozy in the next couple days.
If you run a trend line through a plot for each of the 3 data series for this month, you'll find that the market is adding somewhere between 1.8 and 2.3 new listings an hour.
So that's 43-55 new listings a day with 8 days left in the month - so it is likely that 340-440 net new listings will come on the market before 4/30
That would take us to ~12,400 or 12,500 before the "purge" based on the current reading
If we don't end the month at 12K, it will be very close. 11,900 is probably a good guess.
Historical average growth between March-April is ~7.5%. So at 11-12%, this year's is a little high, but not out of the range. Last year was 13%. It's the raw number of listings that is notable.
Well, I think the rate of increase is notable as well. First, if total inventory is 50% higher this April than last (as Tim pointed out), the same number of additional houses added to the market would produce 33% lower percentage gain (ie 13% last year is comparable 8.3% this year). So inventory is increasing faster this spring in total numbers than last, even if it is slower as a percentage of growth.
Second, while 11% is lower, listing have been increasing at above normal rates for so long that it's notable so long as it stays that way. The drain in my sink can only empty so much water per second. If I turn the water up full blast to wash my hands, it's no big deal because it's a short burst with a long time to return to equilibrium. But if I leave the water on full blast for 5 hours it becomes a problem. That's how I would look at these listing numbers.
I think the realtor.com feed has gotten screwy. it's way overstating relative to Windermere. Differential is 500 or so.
So eyeballing it, we are sitting at about 550 over Windermere when the average is 75 under. A more accurate estimate of current inventory is probably around 11,700.
Tim's guess is still looking pretty good.
and I appreciate it
Column 2: JohnLScott.com
Column 3: TheMLSOnline.com
Maybe. We'll see. That 3rd feed has gotten so volatile, I'm thinking the Windermere number - 11,620 - might be a bit closer to reality.
A new record high, and up 49% YOY.