Business Journal on Seattle vs. San Diego

edited August 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
I got a news alert for this story from the Puget Sound Business Journal: How King County dodged mortgage mess compared to San Diego

But as you can see, everything beyond the first few paragraphs is behind a subscriber wall. Anybody got a subscription and want to send me the full story? I'd love to see their reasoning.

Thanks!

Comments

  • Bah. Looks like it's been banned from BugMeNot.
  • Heh, I tried that method too. Didn't figure it would work since it's a pay subscription rather than just a free registration, but it was worth trying :)
  • I bought the hardcopy at lunch. It relies on quotes from Crellin and his counter-part in SD.

    The upshot:

    - People in San Diego are more stupid, so they took out more subprime loans. Curiously the only statistic Kirsten Grind uses to defend this the education levels, not the number of subprime loans.

    - The growth management act stopped developers from building crazily. She quotes the number of permits issued during the boom-boom years in each county. I can't verify her stats on Crellin's website. While there wasn't the run-up in permits that SD reportedly saw, we did have some substantial blips, particularly in Q1 07, and she should have also looked at Pierce and Snohomish, not just King.

    - Foreclosures have been much worse over the last year there than here. Well, yeah. Because they are a year ahead in declines. We'll see our foreclosures soon.

    I agree that SD went higher and will fall lower, but their SD prof's conclusion that SD is still trying to find the bottom whereas Seattle is through it already is just a bunch of speculative nonsense.
  • I am such an internet nerd that I didn't even know there was a hard copy. :oops: What type of stores carry it? It's not like there are a lot of newstands in the Kenmore area.
  • In Kenmore;

    Third Place Books
    17171 Bothell Way NE
    Lake Forest Park, WA 98155
    Tel: 206-366-3333

    also, Borders and Larry's Market.
  • I got it at the QFC.
  • Rents are higher in Seattle and headed up, while SD is flat.

    http://www.apartmentratings.com/rate/CA ... icing.html

    http://www.apartmentratings.com/rate/WA ... icing.html

    "Vacancy rates down, rents up at Seattle apartments"

    http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/ ... ily32.html
  • Thanks all, I actually emailed Kirsten Grind (the author of the piece) and she was kind enough to email me the text. No time to read it tonight, but if there's anything post-worthy, I'll probably post on it this weekend or Monday.

    Off-topic - Re: biliruben's signature picture.
    I looked at your pic and thought: "What is that, a shrew?" Did a Google Image Search for shrew and ta-da, first result--an elephant shrew. Hooray for zoology!
  • Yeah - I live in Shrew Ridge now, didn't ya notice. ;)

    The neighborhood is full of nosy, grouchy old Shrews who's husbands worked themselves to death so Lovey could live her last days on the ridge.

    That little beastie doesn't look real, does it?
  • I turned of signatures because of that thing.
  • He he.

    He's not dangerous.
  • Any straight up comparison with San Diego is ALWAYS gonna make Seattle look good until SD hits bottom and starts going back up (if that ever happens). Seattle is about 17 months behind San Diego. Seattle is just now nosing over and pointing down.....SD is in "free fall".

    Ms. "Grind" is whistling past the graveyard with that happy talk piece of cheerleading....
  • Any straight up comparison with San Diego is ALWAYS gonna make Seattle look good until SD hits bottom and starts going back up (if that ever happens). Seattle is about 17 months behind San Diego. Seattle is just now nosing over and pointing down.....SD is in "free fall".

    One thing, Seattle has trailed the market by about 18 months, but I am now forming the opinion that we are "making up time." In a lot of other markets, the crash started with a "will they or won't they decline" meme. Here in Seattle, we're only really 9 months in and a swath of people seem to have already accepted it's a declining market. Look on redfin, prices are getting marked down (albeit not by much) after less than 30 days on the market. Some are marked down in the first 2 weeks. That can't be normal.

    Even though our decline started 18 mos late, I'm going to predict we hit bottom only 9 mos after the rest of the market. I'm curious if anyone else has had similar thoughts.
  • Here in Seattle, we're only really 9 months in and a swath of people seem to have already accepted it's a declining market. Look on redfin, prices are getting marked down (albeit not by much) after less than 30 days on the market. Some are marked down in the first 2 weeks. That can't be normal.

    Even though our decline started 18 mos late, I'm going to predict we hit bottom only 9 mos after the rest of the market. I'm curious if anyone else has had similar thoughts.

    I realize I am responding to an old post, but I think the past two months confirm your estimate from June. I am sensing some properties are capitulating. It is not enough to move the region's numbers, but I sense some desperation from sellers.

    Although the Seattle region peak was much later, our decline may be steeper and faster.

    Part of that might be attributed to lending changes. The major bank lenders are affected nationally. They don't tighten credit in just certain regions. Their pain is shared everywhere when they no longer sell option ARM mortgages.

    Now that Fannie and Freddie are bailing out of Alt-A mortgages, that affects everyone at the same time. There is no delay for that impact to hit the Seattle region.
  • There is a very strong possibility that Wamu could either fold or be another Bear Stearns. They aren't Microsoft or Boeing, but they aren't Jerry's discount auto repair either. Their demise could seriously exacerbate an already crumbling situation.

    At least everyone is on the same page here. That is we are no longer arguing "if", but rather, "how bad will it get".

    This whole thing is a pendulum thing, but one thing that keeps niggling was what someone mentioned on minyanville: Pendulums don't stop at equilibrium.
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