What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

deejayoh · June 2008

Whatever it is, here's a thread for the f@cked buyer files:

Exhibit one:
4125 SW 107 S
Seattle, WA 98146
Price: $674,950
Beds: 5
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 3,200
$/Sq. Ft.: $211
Lot Size: 7,500 Sq. Ft.

Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Nov 18, 1999 $415,000 --
Jan 26, 2007 $750,000 8.6%/yr

On the market today for $674,950

So, lets assume they get their price. They are looking at:
- Loss of $75,050 in principle
- Loss of $40,500 for RE fees (6%)
- Loss of $12,150 for Transfer Tax (1.8%)

For 17 months of ownership, our lucky "owners" are looking at a loss of $127,700 - or 17% on their original purchase price. For those of you doing the math at home - that's 1% a month.

Beat that one.

Alan · June 2008

I guess that explains the lack of a picture. They can't afford the electrons.

Cougar · June 2008

Looks like the owner got into personal hardship and now sale of home. Those who purchased at 05-07 prices and have to sell 08 are gonna take a beating. We can't predict life or the housing market, some of us keep trying.

deejayoh · June 2008

How many are needed before we can call it a trend? These are all in West Seattle - and I found them by clicking only about 20 listings on redfin. I am sure there are more.

Sorry about the size. Tim took away some of the screen real estate in the last site update

click picture for larger version.
exhibit 2: Looking at a $43.6k loss (7.8% in fees and taxes) in 23 months
exhibit 3: Looking at a $131.8k loss (principal/fees/taxes) in 25 months - or 15.5%
exhibit 4: Looking at $96.2k (principal/fees/taxes) loss in 13 months - or 28.7% loss

deejayoh · June 2008

Wow. I gotta stop looking at these - but this one was too ugly not to share:

Exhibit 5:

4113 44th Ave SW
Seattle, WA 98116
Price: $998,500
Beds: 5
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 3,265
$/Sq. Ft.: $306
Lot Size: 5,750 Sq. Ft.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Apr 12, 2008 $1,150,000
Apr 22, 2008 $998,500

Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Sep 20, 1991 $163,950 --
Jul 25, 1994 $206,000 8.4%/yr
Dec 10, 2002 $429,000 9.2%/yr
Jun 06, 2007 $1,175,000 25.2%/yr

Loss on Principal: $176.5
Fees and Taxes: $77.9k
Total potential loss: $254.3k, only ~22% of purchase price in 12 months. A quarter of a million dollars, and it's been remodeled...
Looks like it was originally offered at $1.375mm based on the zillow listing. Knock another $200k off the initial "wishing price"

At first I thought they must have sub-divided the lot, but looking at the map there's no way that is the case as houses on both sides were built in the teens.

I would hate to be selling in West Seattle right now.

WestSideBilly · June 2008

Is this isolated to West Seattle or is that just where you're looking?

West Seattle seemed to be one of the more sane areas when I was looking last year...

biliruben · June 2008

A few months ago it was primarily non-King and outer-periphery areas of King that were like this. I'm seeing these sorts of underwater properties for sale more and more in-city, as the bust creeps closer to the job-centers.

Edmonds, Shoreline and LFP are in full-retreat, with the panic starting to spread across the city line to West Seattle, Leschi, Broadview, Cedar Park, Lake City, Meadowbrook and even parts of Maple Leaf and Wedgewood and north Ballard. I'm even seeing weakness in Magnolia and QA, with houses sitting and being cut pretty significantly, and even a few foreclosures in the mix.

The only places really holding up okay are Ballard, Fremont, Laurelhurst, Greenlake, Bryant, View Ridge, S Wedgewood, Ravenna zone. Which of course is where I'd like to live.

I can't speak to the Eastside at all. And I don't really pay attention to Cap. Hill and downtown either.

Civil Servant · June 2008

I noticed some interesting goings-on w/r/t Capitol Hill listings just today. This is neither my preferred neighborhood nor my target price range, I'm just nosy and crazy for data.

943 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/943-19 ... ome/135847 -- Bought for $1.2M in February (!), now back on the market at $1.198M, a loss in the range of $100K when transaction fees are taken into account.

952 16th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/952-16 ... ome/135830 - Bought for $1.1M in February 2005, an alleged $1M+ put into the renovation. If true, even at the current (intial) listing price -- which exceeds comps by over $200/sf, yikes -- the owners are in the hole. (And regarding this claim about renovation cost, what's the deal? Is there honor among thieves, or should I believe something like this when I read it?)

And here are two high-end houses that have been discounted by $300K since first being listed.

900 18th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/900-18 ... ome/135700
910 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/910-19 ... ome/136345

None of these are as dramatic as the West Seattle situation, but I'm surprised to see this happening -- and to get the waft of urgency on the part of the current owners -- in the posh part of Capitol Hill.

perfectfire · June 2008

Isn't this thread the same as Equity Stompin' Comp Killers?

Here's another one from the eastside. So far not much of an asking price drop, but still a significant one-year loss if transaction costs are factored in. It probably would've been easier and 3x as cheap to rent:

16903 SE 38th Pl Bellevue, WA 98008

Bought on May 29, 2007 for $660,000
Now asking $650,000

deejayoh · June 2008

This is my final post on West Seattle - I promise to drop it after this! I figured out how to use Redfin to pretty rapidly look at most of the neighborhoods in close proximity to Seattle and from what I can see, W Seattle is by far the hardest hit by the downturn.

There are 409 SFH on the market in West Seattle. Of these:

- 66 fall in to the category of what I loosely defined as a "flip" - e.g. purchased after 1/1/06 and now back on the market + date house built was prior to the date of the previous sale (so I know it was not a tear down) - 20 of the flips are listed for less than the purchase price. Two additional listings are bank owned foreclosures with no sales price listed (33% of flips are losers) - Average principal loss on the 20 losers with prices listed = $60k (9% of purchase)
And here's the biggest loser in West Seattle (click picture for listing):

WestSideBilly · June 2008

I don't think you did your img/url tag right. It's not a link to the listing, just the picture.

EastSider · June 2008

Redmond Ridge home -- bought for $460K in June/2006 and is now listed for $425K
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/9112-2 ... ome/444759

BTW, I hadn't noticed such significant price-drops with reasonably good starter-homes in Redmond -- so far. I guess that the best is yet to come.

What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

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