12611 16th Ave S
Seattle, WA 98168
1630 sqft
Asking $201,900
Sold 10/2007 for around $250k.
That house does like it has sunk below ground. That has to be the bottom.
I still don't think this is the bottom. It's now over a month since this was msg was posted and they're now asking 189900. Some odd sales history to this place, too. I don't think it would be so bad if it wasn't so far below it's parking 'lot'. I have been watching this neighborhood for a while.
That, and they're about 1 mile from the airport. That's never great for property values.
That house is going up for foreclosure auction on this Friday (June 20th). There is no way he will be able to close by then. I think he hopes to get it under contract so that he can stall the foreclosure.
Also the owner is a mortgage broker who has had his fingers in six properties over the last three years.
I've been slacking on this subject a little bit. But just so it's clear - with the government sponsored lenders running out of cash - this is definitely not the bottom.
I've been slacking on this subject a little bit. But just so it's clear - with the government sponsored lenders running out of cash - this is definitely not the bottom.
It's ok. When I type anything controversial, I wrap aluminum foil around my fingertips (but not thumbs). Anyone who is still a real estate bull can't read the letters I type with my fingers, but they can see all the white space (again, typed by thumb).
Very excellently good question Ubersalad. When calculating the bottom, I have a super secret especially good formula I use. It works this way, some indicators point up (like a thumbs up) and others point down (like an Olympic Diver).
Here's a quicky of how some indicators are pointing.
IndyMac failed, points up. IndyMac can't fall any lower so this is a positive sign.
WaMu is still in business, points down. How long can they hold out anyways?
Federal Reserve announced another bailout plan, points down. Come on, we all know they are kidding. By the way, the Fed-Bailout-Indicator will point up when something happens they can't or won't bail out. That's when we know they are at the end of their ropes.
Senate passed a bailout plan, points flat. Everyone now knows the very most the government plans to do. We know they won't do that much, so it's bound all enthusiasm. That means expectations of government intervention are nearly to a realistic state.
4th of July is over, points down. Fireworks did not raze a significant chunk of unoccupied homes, which means supply didn't decrease.
Anyways, add it all together and no we are not at the bottom yet. Maybe next major crisis will be the bottom.
Very excellently good question Ubersalad. When calculating the bottom, I have a super secret especially good formula I use. It works this way, some indicators point up (like a thumbs up) and others point down (like an Olympic Diver).
Here's a quicky of how some indicators are pointing.
IndyMac failed, points up. IndyMac can't fall any lower so this is a positive sign.
WaMu is still in business, points down. How long can they hold out anyways?
Federal Reserve announced another bailout plan, points down. Come on, we all know they are kidding. By the way, the Fed-Bailout-Indicator will point up when something happens they can't or won't bail out. That's when we know they are at the end of their ropes.
Senate passed a bailout plan, points flat. Everyone now knows the very most the government plans to do. We know they won't do that much, so it's bound all enthusiasm. That means expectations of government intervention are nearly to a realistic state.
4th of July is over, points down. Fireworks did not raze a significant chunk of unoccupied homes, which means supply didn't decrease.
Anyways, add it all together and no we are not at the bottom yet. Maybe next major crisis will be the bottom.
Getting trickier to say all the time, but let's do a few updates.
Let's see, congress passed their bailout. Last time I explained how the pending bailout would force expectations of government intervention to a realistic state. Well, we're closer than ever now. Congress passed their bill, they can advertise how much they've helped on TV commercials this fall, which means they are done. That's right, you won't see any more government intervention unless this lags on another 2 years.
So, is this the bottom? No!
The more people dig into it, the more they will realize this bill will have little effect on the picture at large, but may help some current owners. Details are still getting nailed down, but here's a few I've noticed. $7,500 for first time buyers. Uh...yeah, that 2% off the top is going to prevent 30% declines...what? The bill seems to stipulate that conforming loans must produce payments no greater than 31% of gross income. Uh Oh! If Freddie/Fannie are the only lenders still operating, and they require this...what do you imagine it will do to loan availability?!?
Should be weekly report every Monday! In fact, Tim should put it front page!
So, here's the rub. To remember to do that, I'd need some sort of alarm, rather than just popping in when it seems appropriate. Also, even I am not able to accurately predict the bottom of the housing bubble to the week. The month? Sure! +/- three weeks? Of course! Within a fortnight? Absolutely. But to the week? Impossible man!
That, and I anticipate we are over a year from the bottom. I mean, how many different ways are there to say "this week is not the bottom"? Especially if, like me, one insists on doing no actual research. </shrug>
...my cursor is been hovering over the "BUY NOW" button on Redfin for months now, as I madly refresh this thread over and over again in another window. I even set it up as a 1-click shopping experience to make sure I was the first one in line when we hit bottom.
Pre-foreclosure! Open floor plan featuring 5bd/2ba, large living room, dining area, fireplace, hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings and much more. Huge yard and deck would be great for entertaining, Lower level has an additional full size kitchen with separate entry that would be great for an extended family or potential rental income.
Pre-foreclosure! Open floor plan featuring 5bd/2ba, large living room, dining area, fireplace, hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings and much more. Huge yard and deck would be great for entertaining, Lower level has an additional full size kitchen with separate entry that would be great for an extended family or potential rental income.
Did you even look at that house? It's pink. Of course it's going for about $100 / sq ft. Trust me, when we reach the bottom even attractively painted homes in Renton will be selling for less.
I feel that what's more important is that one not try to catch the exact bottom of any market, since that's called "trying to catch a falling knife" in the trading world, for good reason. From a making-money standpoint, exact bottoms are useless, since they lose money much of the time, because they are false bottoms. So it's a coin toss, or a form of gambling.
A better strategy is to look at the trend in home appreciation and buy after a long trend of decreasing appreciation rates, when the rates trend finally starts appreciating. Notice I said trend, which implies an analysis of month-over-month or quarterly rates, rather than a snapshot of any one current rate.
Making money in any market usually involves identifying the trend, and watching closely for clear signals that the trend has changed. You never want to be the first one in, or the last one out. Most money is made by riding the middle of a trend.
Since people need sources, you might check with legendary(!!) trader Jesse Livermore on this tried-and-true strategy. I picked it up from him and found it useful for my own trading.
Pre-foreclosure! Open floor plan featuring 5bd/2ba, large living room, dining area, fireplace, hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings and much more. Huge yard and deck would be great for entertaining, Lower level has an additional full size kitchen with separate entry that would be great for an extended family or potential rental income.
42% decline since last sale about 20 months ago. If that doesn't sell quick then the area is in even worse shape then most of us on this board are predicting.
Comments
That, and they're about 1 mile from the airport. That's never great for property values.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/12820 ... ome/279288
12820 95th Ave NE
Kirkland, WA 98034
Asking: $340k
Last Sold 5/2006 for $425k
That is an $85k haircut. It could also be described as a 20% drop.
Also the owner is a mortgage broker who has had his fingers in six properties over the last three years.
This is definitely not the bottom. But here's a hint, the bottom will not be on a sunny day (I heard that from some trustworthy Realtors(R)).
Buchan home - selling for 10% below nov 2005 price.
Check back in a couple weeks to learn if we've bottomed out yet.
don't let rentersarelosers hear you saying that.
It's ok. When I type anything controversial, I wrap aluminum foil around my fingertips (but not thumbs). Anyone who is still a real estate bull can't read the letters I type with my fingers, but they can see all the white space (again, typed by thumb).
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4422-B ... me/8188868
"Sell now or be priced in forever!"
$/Sq. Ft.: $606
Well there's your problem!
regarding that condo...
The owners of that were profiled on the local news about a year ago as people who successfully rode the housing boom wave to a "Million Dollar Condo".
They also own property in AZ.
ooops.
Very excellently good question Ubersalad. When calculating the bottom, I have a super secret especially good formula I use. It works this way, some indicators point up (like a thumbs up) and others point down (like an Olympic Diver).
Here's a quicky of how some indicators are pointing.
IndyMac failed, points up. IndyMac can't fall any lower so this is a positive sign.
WaMu is still in business, points down. How long can they hold out anyways?
Federal Reserve announced another bailout plan, points down. Come on, we all know they are kidding. By the way, the Fed-Bailout-Indicator will point up when something happens they can't or won't bail out. That's when we know they are at the end of their ropes.
Senate passed a bailout plan, points flat. Everyone now knows the very most the government plans to do. We know they won't do that much, so it's bound all enthusiasm. That means expectations of government intervention are nearly to a realistic state.
4th of July is over, points down. Fireworks did not raze a significant chunk of unoccupied homes, which means supply didn't decrease.
Anyways, add it all together and no we are not at the bottom yet. Maybe next major crisis will be the bottom.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/12611- ... ome/190169
Now asking $179,900
I guess that wasn't the bottom. Maybe this is the bottom?
Let's see, congress passed their bailout. Last time I explained how the pending bailout would force expectations of government intervention to a realistic state. Well, we're closer than ever now. Congress passed their bill, they can advertise how much they've helped on TV commercials this fall, which means they are done. That's right, you won't see any more government intervention unless this lags on another 2 years.
So, is this the bottom? No!
The more people dig into it, the more they will realize this bill will have little effect on the picture at large, but may help some current owners. Details are still getting nailed down, but here's a few I've noticed. $7,500 for first time buyers. Uh...yeah, that 2% off the top is going to prevent 30% declines...what? The bill seems to stipulate that conforming loans must produce payments no greater than 31% of gross income. Uh Oh! If Freddie/Fannie are the only lenders still operating, and they require this...what do you imagine it will do to loan availability?!?
Suppose to do it on MONDAY!
So, here's the rub. To remember to do that, I'd need some sort of alarm, rather than just popping in when it seems appropriate. Also, even I am not able to accurately predict the bottom of the housing bubble to the week. The month? Sure! +/- three weeks? Of course! Within a fortnight? Absolutely. But to the week? Impossible man!
That, and I anticipate we are over a year from the bottom. I mean, how many different ways are there to say "this week is not the bottom"? Especially if, like me, one insists on doing no actual research. </shrug>
...my cursor is been hovering over the "BUY NOW" button on Redfin for months now, as I madly refresh this thread over and over again in another window. I even set it up as a 1-click shopping experience to make sure I was the first one in line when we hit bottom.
Within a fortnight!?! How is that gonna help me?
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Renton/3905-NE ... ome/241442
3905 NE 6 St
Renton, WA 98056
Sq. Ft.: 2,440
Price: $269,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $110
Pre-foreclosure! Open floor plan featuring 5bd/2ba, large living room, dining area, fireplace, hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings and much more. Huge yard and deck would be great for entertaining, Lower level has an additional full size kitchen with separate entry that would be great for an extended family or potential rental income.
Did you even look at that house? It's pink. Of course it's going for about $100 / sq ft. Trust me, when we reach the bottom even attractively painted homes in Renton will be selling for less.
I feel that what's more important is that one not try to catch the exact bottom of any market, since that's called "trying to catch a falling knife" in the trading world, for good reason. From a making-money standpoint, exact bottoms are useless, since they lose money much of the time, because they are false bottoms. So it's a coin toss, or a form of gambling.
A better strategy is to look at the trend in home appreciation and buy after a long trend of decreasing appreciation rates, when the rates trend finally starts appreciating. Notice I said trend, which implies an analysis of month-over-month or quarterly rates, rather than a snapshot of any one current rate.
Making money in any market usually involves identifying the trend, and watching closely for clear signals that the trend has changed. You never want to be the first one in, or the last one out. Most money is made by riding the middle of a trend.
Since people need sources, you might check with legendary(!!) trader Jesse Livermore on this tried-and-true strategy. I picked it up from him and found it useful for my own trading.
I hope that helps.
42% decline since last sale about 20 months ago. If that doesn't sell quick then the area is in even worse shape then most of us on this board are predicting.