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first-time buyer vs. the bubble

plumtreeplumtree
edited July 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
I'm going to get married soon, and we've recently started thinking seriously about buying. We've been renting in Seattle for about a year now, and it seems we'll be staying for the foreseeable future.

All the research I've done says there's no credible evidence that the bubble has finished bursting. What does that mean for us? Do we wait, hoping for prices to go lower? Do we enter the market now, but make offers 10-20% lower than asking?

There seem to be a lot of people in this forum who can offer some advice.

Comments

  • mike2mike2
    Yes, there is no credible evidence that the bubble has finished bursting.

    Whether you can get a 10-20% offer accepted depends on the location. Far out? Sure. Close in? The only way that is going to happen is if the property is priced 10-20% over market or you hit the jackpot and find a distressed seller at the right moment.

    Seattle hasn't hit the panic stage yet. (unless you're a Realtor). You're going to have to wait for the market to deteriorate further. Otherwise, you suck it up and buy now with the expectation that the value of your home is likely to be lower a year or two (3,4,5) from now.

    Don't rush. If you do rush, understand what you're getting into and accept that.
  • RobroyRobroy
    mike2 wrote:
    Yes, there is no credible evidence that the bubble has finished bursting.

    Seattle hasn't hit the panic stage yet. (unless you're a Realtor). You're going to have to wait for the market to deteriorate further. Otherwise, you suck it up and buy now with the expectation that the value of your home is likely to be lower a year or two (3,4,5) from now.

    Don't rush. If you do rush, understand what you're getting into and accept that.

    ABSO-FREAKIN-LUTELY!

    If you are not a homeowner now, DO NOT BUY. Frankly, it is painfully obvious that it will get worse, and probably a LOT worse. There is absolutely no justification for a first time buyer to enter the market now. None. Nada. Zip.

    I seem to have a strong opinion on this. I've been following it for three years. I was a bit ahead of the curve on the advise, but it's wisdom is quite obvious now. So obvious, in fact, that I wouldn't even call it wisdom. :wink:

    Alt-a is just "hitting" and it is MUCH bigger than subprime. We will have major banks implode. The question is only "How many?".

    Regarding Alt-A, this article contains a graph giving you the timing and some insteresting information. http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr08/RE-bottom4-08.html
  • UbersaladUbersalad
    I think it's time to buy when EVERYONE agrees that it isn't time to buy.
  • RobroyRobroy
    Ubersalad wrote:
    I think it's time to buy when EVERYONE agrees that it isn't time to buy.
    My sentiments exactly. It is still only mostly us "doom and gloomers" that are saying it, although our ranks are expanding.

    In the current economy, we ar all like the Jewish community in the movie "The Pianist". We're in the first 20 minutes of the movie. It gets worse...but it gets better.
  • Civil ServantCivil Servant
    Plumtree, think of it like this: if you continue to save money for a down payment at the same time as prices are declining, that money is working twice as hard for you. It's never dumb to save as much as you can, but there are times when it is especially smart, and this is one of them.
  • rose-colored-coolaidrose-colored-coolaid
    Civil Servant wrote:
    Plumtree, think of it like this: if you continue to save money for a down payment at the same time as prices are declining

    The way things are going you might as well be spending your downpayment while prices fall. Got 20% down for what you want? You can spend $1k of that a month as the house you like drops their price at least $10k a month. You'll still end up with a smaller mortgage and more $$$ down.
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