8-10 year guesstimate for south Snohomish county?

dlsdls
edited August 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
Curious as to what folks think the 8-10 year outlook is for the Mountlake Terrace/Lynnwood/Edmonds (not the bowl) area? This area is attractive to me because it is a reasonable split between work in south Everett and the non-work attractions of Seattle and the east side of the lake. Being outside of King county is also a plus. Prices seem to be still dropping a little, but I'm working through the rent/buy process and am trying to decide if I could expect to at least break-even for a modest house if I were to buy within the next few months and then sell it in 8-10 years after I retire and (probably) leave the area. Thanks.

Comments

  • I personally have never seen the advantage of those kinds of areas. You're a ways off from most job centers, which means you've probably got a difficult commute 5 days a week. Yeah, you'd be closer to Seattle to "do things", but if you are too exhausted from commuting every day, the 20 minutes you hypothetically save on a Saturday going out someplace is wasted.

    But that's just my opinion, I'm sure many people are more enthusiastic about that area.
  • Your commute appears to be in opposite direction of major traffic, so can't be that bad. Might want to look into Kenmore as well there have been some really drastic price drops there.

    Outlook wise its a guess but there is not as much new construction in Mountlake Terrace, Edmonds areas so that has not depressed the prices severely. Edmonds has faired pretty well as it is mainly retirees who have either a condo looking at the sound or a free and clear home. Mountlake Terrace is however having some awesome fire sales in the $300s. It all depends on what you buy and at what price.
  • Edmonds appears to be in RE hell. Houses seem to be just sitting for ever, from what I can see. One of the local RE bloggers (Sandy?) has confirmed that Edmonds is in bad shape right now.
  • As for 8-10 years, Dunno. My guess is not so hot, but I don't see a reason why it would do better or worse than the region as a whole. My guess is it is and will fall sooner than Seattle Proper, but everything will get to close to the same place eventually. It will probably recover more slowly than close in areas as well, if it recovers at all.
  • This isn't specifically about South Snoho, but CR has blogged a few times about housing busts and how long they take. This article compares the current housing bust to Los Angeles' bust in the early 90's. And this article has a graph of nominal and real home prices in San Diego during the same bust.

    Housing bubles take a long time to bust and then recover. I sigh whenever someone comments on the blog about how they just bought a house but it's okay because they're going to be in it for 5 yrs (as if 5 years is a really long time). If history is any guide, in 5 years we may just be reaching the bottom.
  • That's actually the area that I live in and for the last 15 years it's been the area that people move to who work in Everett, but don't want to live there, or work in the city or eastside, but can't afford to buy a home closer to work.

    I think that long term they will do well, although not as well as properties located nearer downtown or Eastside.

    South Everett is obviously not an ideal place to live, considering it's one of the highest crime areas in the state.

    Because of our city getting such a large influx of higher paying jobs and more people moving into the area than moving out, the demographic in that area has changed significantly.

    I would suggest shying away from Mountlake Terrace for the most part. There are some neighborhoods there that are nice, but it's fairly hit and miss. There is alot of garbage property there and while there has been alot of making it better, it's still not the best.

    Edmonds you'll probably do the best in as it's a "destination" town that people like to live in.

    Lynnwood (where I live) is about 1/2 way between the two. You don't have the same amount of crap houses like you do in Terrace, but there are areas in lynnwood that you wouldn't want to buy. But it doesn't have the name attraction that Edmonds does.

    As far as when to buy, if you're planning on buying sooner rather than later I'd suggest this December is going to be a great time to buy. That's traditionally when the least amount of sales happen and when someone has been sitting vacant for 6 months and is looking down the barrel of a merry or not merry christmas, good deals can definitely be had.
  • I'm with RCC on this one. If you're a somewhat typical person, you commute to/from work ~250 times a year, but you go downtown or to the eastside 50-100 and usually at off peak times. Why would you punish yourself 10 times a week just for the "convenience" of getting downtown in 20 minutes on Friday evening?

    As for the 8-10 year window, it'll most likely be fine. You probably won't get rich off the purchase, but you'll have paid about 12-18% of the loan off (assuming a 30 year fixed) + down payment. At 10 years, home ownership comes out ahead even with stagnant prices.

    Of course, there is a risk that stagnant prices will be the high end of where we're at.
  • I think that is a good question. Just how often do you go to Seattle and the Eastside? If it's less than once a week, maybe try getting something closer to work.

    South Everett is not a good place to live, BUT Edmonds does stretch up along the water all the way to Mukilteo. Maybe try that area.
  • I think that is a good question. Just how often do you go to Seattle and the Eastside? If it's less than once a week, maybe try getting something closer to work.

    South Everett is not a good place to live, BUT Edmonds does stretch up along the water all the way to Mukilteo. Maybe try that area.
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