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Death of the burbs

Big Mike 34Big Mike 34
edited August 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
This is an interesting article...I happen to be looking for a house in the Burbs....Woodinville, Maple Valley, Maybe fall city or Issaquah

http://www.businessandmedia.org/article ... 95901.aspx

I hope it is wrong.

Comments

  • rose-colored-coolaidrose-colored-coolaid
    This is a pretty common meme right now. Death is probably too strong of a word, but there does seem to be a shift where the burbs are no longer as desirable as they once were.

    The two main causes in the shift appear to be increasing commute times, and the replacement of heavy industry with commercial industry at most city centers.
  • WestSideBillyWestSideBilly
    I've seen a bunch of these articles (most of them cite the 22 million vacant house guesstimate at some point) and they all miss the mark.

    The suburbs have pulled people because they've generally had lower primary costs (home buying), bigger yards, better schools, lower crime, and so on and so forth. That's all still true. Yes, sitting in traffic for an hour burning $4/gallon gas isn't much fun, but the tradeoffs still favor suburbs for a family with kids (which, last time I checked, is a larger demographic than empty nesters and yuppies). And many businesses in the last decade or two have moved to suburbs for the same reasons - lower costs, more space, closer to where most of their employees work, less crime, etc.

    The exurbs with no real job opportunities (other than service sector) may well see an end to their growth. But suburbs are here to stay.
  • garthgarth
    No 22 million here:

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pd ... llapse.pdf
  • Big Mike 34Big Mike 34
    WestSideBilly wrote:
    I've seen a bunch of these articles (most of them cite the 22 million vacant house guesstimate at some point) and they all miss the mark.

    The suburbs have pulled people because they've generally had lower primary costs (home buying), bigger yards, better schools, lower crime, and so on and so forth. That's all still true. Yes, sitting in traffic for an hour burning $4/gallon gas isn't much fun, but the tradeoffs still favor suburbs for a family with kids (which, last time I checked, is a larger demographic than empty nesters and yuppies). And many businesses in the last decade or two have moved to suburbs for the same reasons - lower costs, more space, closer to where most of their employees work, less crime, etc.

    The exurbs with no real job opportunities (other than service sector) may well see an end to their growth. But suburbs are here to stay.
    Well said, I agree with every word. Once people get through the hysteria about gas prices they will realize it is still less expensive, and safer to live in the Burbs, especially if you have children.
  • RobroyRobroy
    If the burbs "die" there won't be a lot of traffic, which means the commute will be a breeze, which means people will want to move there, which will cause a boom, which will bust, causing the burbs to die.

    Rinse and repeat.

    Meanwhile, I only commute 8.4 miles to my corporate gig in Bellevue. It is 20 minutes before seven, 40 minutes after seven, and 27-30 minutes by bike. It is from the east Renton Highlands. Upscale neighborhood, rent is very low, crime is pretty much non-existent. The Maple Valley trail is just down the hill.

    I think the ex-urbs are the the places that will be really be hammered. I'm thinking places like this: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 19226&z=16
  • mukohmukoh
    Robroy wrote:

    I think the ex-urbs are the the places that will be really be hammered. I'm thinking places like this: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 19226&z=16

    That is exactly the places that I think about when people talk suburbs really is like Orting 800+ new lots created with absorption of 40 a year.
  • RobroyRobroy
    mukoh wrote:
    Robroy wrote:

    I think the ex-urbs are the the places that will be really be hammered. I'm thinking places like this: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 19226&z=16

    That is exactly the places that I think about when people talk suburbs really is like Orting 800+ new lots created with absorption of 40 a year.
    My wife and I were on a "let's drive around" Sunday when we came across that place. What the photo doesn't show is that it is on a plateu with a very steep road to get to it. We felt like we were in a Twilight Zone episode. They built a small community in the middle of nowhere, but there are NO facilities. No gas, no Safeway. Heck, no retail of any sort whatsoever. And there is not enough base to bring them in.

    On a side note, we counted five cars from various law enforcement agencies parked in driveways.
  • Lake Hills RenterLake Hills Renter
    I drive by that subdivision on the way to Rainier. Every time I see it my first thought is "WTF?". There's nothing out there at all. I'm sure the views of Rainier are great, but the nearest town is Orting.
  • mukohmukoh
    The main strip in Orting just past has a ton of Soundbuilt plats and they are huge, 200+ lot subdivisions.
  • lamontlamont
    when rainier pops and the pyroclastic flows take out orting it'll give a new meaning to "death of the burbs".
  • perfectfireperfectfire
    lamont wrote:
    when rainier pops and the pyroclastic flows take out orting it'll give a new meaning to "death of the burbs".
    Haha! I was thinking the same thing.
  • Lake Hills RenterLake Hills Renter
    mukoh wrote:
    The main strip in Orting just past has a ton of Soundbuilt plats and they are huge, 200+ lot subdivisions.

    And every single one of them looks exactly the same. The whole town is a poster child for conformity.
  • RobroyRobroy
    Lake Hills Renter wrote:
    mukoh wrote:
    The main strip in Orting just past has a ton of Soundbuilt plats and they are huge, 200+ lot subdivisions.

    And every single one of them looks exactly the same. The whole town is a poster child for conformity.
    When I fly into various cities I am amazed at the difference in lot size between older construction and the new stuff.

    I consider most of the new construction under about $600k to be the 21st century equivalent of the 20th century mobile home park.
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