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Objects Of Appreciation: Some Spots Buck The Housing Slump

meshugymeshugy
edited May 2007 in Seattle Real Estate
Objects Of Appreciation: Some Spots Buck The Housing Slump

Call it the contrarian market. While most of the country's housing market continues to wither, some areas are still holding up, even seeing double-digit appreciation.

Seattle is one striking example.

"Part of the reason is it never went up as much in the boom," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets and a Yale University professor.

Large employers such as Boeing (BA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are expanding, as are other tech firms.

Single-family homes that do go on the market in Seattle are in high demand. They appreciated about 12% last year. Riss says real estate agents expect a 9% to 12% rise this year.

The supply of homes in the county at year-end was a low 2.2 months' worth.

In March, the number of all homes sold in King County fell 1.4% from the prior year. That includes both condos and single-family homes. In Seattle, the number rose nearly 2%.

Comments

  • LionelLionel
    All Schiller seems to be saying is that Seattle arrived late to the party. The remaining quotes in the article are from NAR shills. Only an imbecile would buy now.
  • JayJay
    Lets do a sanity check. So Seattle didn't go up as much as other bubble zones earlier (ie, late to the party), so that means Seattle can go on appreciating at double digits indefinitely? You can't have it both ways - once Seattle began going up at double digits it arrived at the party. If you stay too long at the party, you are subject ot the same hangover as everyone else. Remember, the other spots are deflating fast while at the same time, for a few years, Seattle keeps going up at double digits. At some point the curves cross. You see, the problem with Shuggy being so happy about how well Seattle has been doing in the last few years is that it's that very success (in the face of the downturn of the rest of the country) that is sewing the seeds for the deflation here. People will always pay a premium to live in other more desireable areas than Seattle. Seattle is nice but it't NOT California! Besides that, the evolving credit crunch is going to far mor important than the local economy. Of course, the local economy will suffer as well as the overall economy weakens further in months to come.
  • wreckingbullwreckingbull
    Sales of single-family homes in the Seattle area would be more brisk if more homes were on the market, Riss says. King County, which includes Seattle, saw home sales dip 13.8% last year vs. 2005. The supply of homes in the county at year-end was a low 2.2 months' worth.

    Ah, I see. So the reason inventory is rising at an impressive clip is because there are not enough homes on the market to soak up demand? Shuggy, you have to start posting some better stuff than this. Your recent article regurgitations are really starting to expose the desperation of their REIC authors.

    I especially liked the cherry-pick of year-end inventory data.
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    I love this quote, which I picked up over at HBB
    "Q: It's been said that the Central Coast is like an island unto itself, a unique place with a different kind of economy. Do you agree?"

    "James: SLO is a very conservative area and not subject to sudden change, in just about any way. People do not move in or out of here frequently, nor do they move even within the area frequently...Even our weather does not reach extremes.'"

    "Lenny Jones: 'I do not agree. I specifically remember the last down market (1990-96 —a 25 percent decline in value), the banks, the lenders, the Realtors, the builders and developers knew we were in a downward market, and we all said, 'The down market, the recession will not affect SLO County, we are special and different.'"

    "'When it was all done and said, property values lost 25 percent. We like to think it won't happen to us, but we are part of the California and national economy

    Sound familiar? Maybe these are the Californians that are going to keep our market high. LOL. If you want to talk "special", I think SLO qualifies. That place is nice - but it doesn't mean its immune.
  • EconEEconE
    I lived in SLO from 89-93. The reason that things "changed" for them was that they voted in state water in the early 90's and with that came over-development.
  • small_far_uglysmall_far_ugly
    Maybe these are the Californians that are going to keep our market high.

    Another possibility is that the California markets deflating, as is happening in San Diego and beginning in San Francisco, for example, might prompt the Californians who came here to go back home.

    They moved here in large numbers a decade ago(?) because CA prices were too high. I think it makes sense that they might cash out and go back into a deflating market back home.

    It still wouldn't be a one to one trade -- they'd have to take a smaller place or something, but I wonder if the idea of a CA price drop would be enticing to someone who's got a fair chunk of Seattle equity.
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