Wagers
Those of you following this blog over the last several months will recall a number of readers made wagers with me regarding the housing market in Seattle. Let's review them:
Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward. Matthew has earned the distinction as the first to end up with egg on his face. April #s show that house prices came nowhere near falling in April. They actually climbed $10K in one month to $465. Matthew, can you explain why your prediction ran amuck?
Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June. Refracted thought's predication is in serious jeopardy. With April stats showing double digit price increases, and sales up YOY, it's very unlikely that we'll see double digit YOY price decreases come June. RF, would you care to abdicate?
Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July. Again, this looks highly unlikely after the strong showing in April. Would you like to back out?
Synthetic: Synthetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec. This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. Today it zillows at $550K. Dec is a long ways off and I suppose anything can happen. But it looks like Syn miscalculated this one...I'd be glad to give you the opportunity of back out of this. Do you accept?
Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward. Matthew has earned the distinction as the first to end up with egg on his face. April #s show that house prices came nowhere near falling in April. They actually climbed $10K in one month to $465. Matthew, can you explain why your prediction ran amuck?
Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June. Refracted thought's predication is in serious jeopardy. With April stats showing double digit price increases, and sales up YOY, it's very unlikely that we'll see double digit YOY price decreases come June. RF, would you care to abdicate?
Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July. Again, this looks highly unlikely after the strong showing in April. Would you like to back out?
Synthetic: Synthetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec. This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. Today it zillows at $550K. Dec is a long ways off and I suppose anything can happen. But it looks like Syn miscalculated this one...I'd be glad to give you the opportunity of back out of this. Do you accept?
Comments
did you get beat up a lot in grade school? I'm betting yes.
Just curious -- are you thinking that this is going to happen or is there any confirmed policy/plan to enforce this?
You think many people in the local real estate industry would take that bet?
I think that there is going to be a flight to quality among mortgage lenders - as they see increasing number of Alt-A (aka "liar's loans") loans default as the Alt-A's reset and people can't make the payments and can't refinance.
Of course, this won't affect Seattle, which has pink ponies and rainbows...
I tried to come up with a fair bet - I was thinking it was around 50/50 a year ago, and I still think it's fair.
I wouldn't start celebrating just yet if I were you, however.
So we're still on?
Ya scared? Droopy balloons are awefully expensive.
I'll save you the expense....I won't require any sort embarrassing photos on your part. A simple admission that you were wrong will suffice.
If Meshugy posts a lot, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.
If Meshugy doesn't post, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.
If Meshugy say prices are going up, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.
If Meshugy says prices are going down, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.
etc, etc....again, the conspiracy theories and feeble attempts to understand me are the most entertaining things about this blog.
I assume you weren't silly enough to have been riding an option ARM or taken out a second lien. You love the nirvana that is Ballard, right? Gotta good loan, gotta good house. Staying put for a while. All is rosy no matter where the market goes.
I guess the only question that becomes apparent is: what the heck are you hanging around here for?
Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward.
After the strong showing in May, we can conclude the Matthew's prediction was way off base. Price have climbed $15K since March. So much for the "peak." Matty is still wiping the egg of his face....
Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June.
Considering that KC had just shy of 10% YOY appreciation in May, it's highly unlikely we'd a sudden double digit drop this month. Sorry Refrac, wrong again.
Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July.
Bili has precious little time to see he prediction realized. Will we see prices drop YOY in July? Current trends would indicate this prediction is pure folly.
Synpathetic: Synpathetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec.
This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. My current Zillow rank is $557K. A $23K increase since the wager was made...looks like another wildly inaccurate guess from Synpathetic.