Unfortunately for liberal eggheads, Palin is the closest thing to a real person to ever grace a major party Presidential ticket, at least in my lifetime. Most of the rest of us real people will find that to be a very compelling quality.
We tried voting for the guy we'd be more likely to have a beer with and it didn't turn out so well. And she is an ex-beauty queen, which may not be viewed by a lot of "real people" out there as being a "real person".
And all of Obama's background make me want to vote for him much more than Palin, nothing you said there seems negative to me, even though rhetorically you tried to make it sound negative.
That's the inverse of you reading MSM articles being critical of Palin and liking her better. She's an evangelical, pro-life, pro-business, conservative republican. Sounds great to you.
And that just backs up my point that it all doesn't matter. Critical arguments on either side just sound good to the other side. So, we fall back on the fact that the country is going democratic, with the MSM waiting to politically assassinate anyone who stumbles.
And the comparison to lincoln just means that you're completely high.
Generally, we should leave politicians (and other celebrities) private lives out of the professional sphere so long as the person makes some effort to keep them separate. E.g. Cheney's daughter's sexual preference was reasonably off limits. In Palin's case, the GOP eagerly politicized her decision to carry one child to term. One can make a convincing argument that in the case of Palin her personal life, as it relates to abortion issues specifically, is already intentionally in the public eye.
Of course, here's the guy who so many on the right think is weak, elitist, and morally bankrupt responding to this news.
FWIW, when you talk about morals voters, I think this might be an issue. Morals voters are people of absolutes. Abortion is always wrong, premarital sex is always immoral, and stem cell research always destroys a soul. What's going to matter, isn't how the bloggers respond, how the candidates respond (so long as Obama/Biden stay respectful), or what the press does. What's going to matter is how the "moral majority" voters, who Palin was an obvious olive branch to, respond.
Generally, we should leave politicians (and other celebrities) private lives out of the professional sphere so long as the person makes some effort to keep them separate. E.g. Cheney's daughter's sexual preference was reasonably off limits. In Palin's case, the GOP eagerly politicized her decision to carry one child to term. One can make a convincing argument that in the case of Palin her personal life, as it relates to abortion issues specifically, is already intentionally in the public eye.
Of course, here's the guy who so many on the right think is weak, elitist, and morally bankrupt responding to this news.
FWIW, when you talk about morals voters, I think this might be an issue. Morals voters are people of absolutes. Abortion is always wrong, premarital sex is always immoral, and stem cell research always destroys a soul. What's going to matter, isn't how the bloggers respond, how the candidates respond (so long as Obama/Biden stay respectful), or what the press does. What's going to matter is how the "moral majority" voters, who Palin was an obvious olive branch to, respond.
I tend to agree with your first comments. Also, people will watch Jerry Falwell on this stuff more than Larry Flint, for obvious reasons. I will say that I am somewhat surprised and amused that her daughters pregnancy seems to be working in her favor not least because of the way the family is handling it. It sort of reminds me of the old problem o killing the wrong enemy and turning him into a martyr.
You never know how things are gonna turn out, I guess.
Regarding your concepts of absolutes, as A Christian I actually strongly believe in absolute truth and absolutes. It is interesting that the Jews said that if you had sex with a woman to whom you were not married, you had committed adultery. You then had to pay sacrifices for your sin. Yet Jesus upped the bar. He said that if you even so much as looked at a woman with lust in your heart, you had committed adultery in your heart. Yet he died for that sin and thanks to Grace, all one need do is ask sincerely "with a repentant heart" for forgiveness and it is granted, permanently. "70 x 7"
I boil it down to this: All of life is about "why".
The Bradley effect is not as relevant in (modern) presidential campaigns, because of the Electoral College, as it is in local elections. In states where overt racism is alive and well - GA, SC, NC, TN, AL, MS, etc - the Democratic candidates have not fared well and probably have no reasonable expectation of that changing. In the more progressive coast states where Democrats have done well and reasonably expect to win, a few point swing because of covert racism is not likely to change the outcome of that state. CA, for example, is currently polling about 55%D/40%R/5%U.
I think the one state where this is relevant is Ohio. Ohio is a very split state, with 4 large cities that lean Democrat, and the rest of the state is fairly conservative and covert racism is not uncommon. The split is nearly 50/50, as evidenced by the last few elections in that state, and is currently polling around 45%D/44%R/11%U. If, on November 4th, Obama needs to win Ohio to win and is polling at those margins, then the Bradley effect probably delivers McCain to the white house. However, if Obama can convince Floridans that he's not an Muslim Arab Communist, Ohio becomes irrelevant and Obama is our next president.
Say what you will about Palin and her "experience", but as an Obama supporter I'm thrilled with the choice of her.
She's a pure pandering move to women and conservatives. Many of the women I know, both liberal and conservative feel this way.
Her experience as much as Republicans would like to say is better than Obama's, is laughable. Here's someone who didn't even know what the Vice President's job was a month ago.
Which it should be brought up, besides being there in case the Prez keels over, is to preside over the senate. Does her executive experience help her prepare for that?
Now that it has been shown that the pregnancy scandal is not true, I think it seriously calls into question her judgment. The fact that her water broke and she still insisted on staying to give a speech when she was 1 month premature with a down syndrome child? I have a really hard time believing that her doctor told her to get on the plane, much less allowed her to stick around for 8-10 hours and give a speech before coming home. If she'd told the airline that her water had broken, they would not have allowed her on the plane. Seems to me that she felt giving a speech was more important than the health of her child.
The trooper issue will dog her the whole election and the fact that McCain barely vetted her at all and never even had a conversation or interview with her about being VP I think seriously calls his judgment into question.
So, it was a poor choice and I'm pretty happy with it.
Oh, and another thing. I think that her membership/participation with the Alaska Independent Party will be an enormous problem as well. Kind of goes against the "country first" slogan, doesn't it?
And I like that it's McCain's camp denying that she was ever involved with them. She has yet to make a statement about it herself.
The trooper issue will dog her the whole election and the fact that McCain barely vetted her at all and never even had a conversation or interview with her about being VP I think seriously calls his judgment into question.
So, it was a poor choice and I'm pretty happy with it.
She has yet to make a statement about a LOT of stuff. Give it more that a few days and see what bubbles to the surface.
I've been on the jury on two very technical and long trials. In both cases I thought the defendant was doomed when the prosecution was halfway through their case. In both cases, when all was said and done, I went with the defendant.
I've seen responses on both sides of the issues that have come up so far and, once sifting through the BS from both sides, she looks stronger than ever. Joe sixpack will eventually get to hear this stuff out. It is THEN that we can be sure of what these things will mean.
I'm quite excited about it. She is starting to look like a quarterback in a pickle, and everyone is blaming her for being there. But sometimes the quarterback threads a needle and throws a touchdown pass.
IOW, adversity is the fodder from which TRUE excellence grows and maks it'self evident.
As we say at work, "It's not a problem. It is an opportunity." We'll see in this case.
And a governor for 16 months of a state again, with a population less than that of the city of seattle.
I don't really have a horse in the whole "does Palin have enough experience" race, but I wanted to point out that the above statement is factually incorrect. The state of Alaska does not have a population less than the city of Seattle.
Using state-by-state polls, the only ones that matter, Obama leads by a significant margin: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I think that's a cool site, and I like the way the available information is presented, but you can't really rely on it as any sort of accurate predictor. Last time around, the day before the election they had Kerry winning the electoral college 298 to 231. Actual results: Bush 286, Kerry 252.
On Oct. 30, two days earlier, it was the other way around. I suspect that's because there was a lot of battleground states then, so that an updated poll would flip a state, since it counts "barely Republican", say, in the Republican tally.
Oh, and another thing. I think that her membership/participation with the Alaska Independent Party will be an enormous problem as well. Kind of goes against the "country first" slogan, doesn't it?
And I like that it's McCain's camp denying that she was ever involved with them. She has yet to make a statement about it herself.
Yeah, and in 1999, when Pat Buchannan came to her town, she was caught wearing a Buchannan button!!!
:roll:
She is TOAST!
/sarcasm
The press has jumped the shark with her. I am waiting for them to call for a "no knock" entry into her home to see if she's been pulling the labels off her pillows.
The press is walking a very thin line here. This could backfire horrendously on them if they cross it. It is really starting to appear as if they already have...
The press is walking a very thin line here. This could backfire horrendously on them if they cross it. It is really starting to appear as if they already have...
Oh no! Think of the ramifications, the press might not be re-elected!
Oh, and another thing. I think that her membership/participation with the Alaska Independent Party will be an enormous problem as well. Kind of goes against the "country first" slogan, doesn't it?
Seems like this an the Obama/Ayes stories have about equal risk. Anyone who laughs off the story about their horse, while seriously telling you how significant the opponents issues are is pretty hypocritical. If either of those stories end up having real meat to them, it could easily decide the election.
Her experience as much as Republicans would like to say is better than Obama's, is laughable.
We already covered this a bit, but there is exactly one job in this country that offers the kind of experience needed to be president; that job is being president. Well, VP is pretty good experience as well I think. Everybody else will lack foreign experience or executive experience. And if you don't, that means your a career politician. It's best if neither campaign focuses on this.
tarzanchuck wrote:
Oh, and another thing. I think that her membership/participation with the Alaska Independent Party will be an enormous problem as well. Kind of goes against the "country first" slogan, doesn't it?
Y'know RCC, that was a pretty well reasoned post. I just really differ on one thing strongly. Your response about me saying the press runs a risk was this: "Oh no! Think of the ramifications, the press might not be re-elected!"
I appreciate the humor (it actually did make me laugh) but where I was going was that if people get the feeling she is being unfairly bashed on, it could turn them in their favor. Keep in mind, I'm talking about the ones already on the fence. And of course the 18 million.
On Oct. 30, two days earlier, it was the other way around. I suspect that's because there was a lot of battleground states then, so that an updated poll would flip a state, since it counts "barely Republican", say, in the Republican tally.
Florida and Ohio were both polling with tiny advantages to Kerry the day before, but were not won by Kerry. Lots of votes swinging the other way.
Dave Leip's Atlas is useful because he tracks contested states (<2% advantage) separately. He's currently showing Obama "up" 259 - 183, meaning McCain will need to nearly sweep the battleground states.
You're right Tim, if you take the most restrictive definition of Seattle.
I wouldn't have mentioned it, except that tarzanchuck used the specific phrase "the city of Seattle" as opposed to "the Seattle area" or even just "Seattle." I was curious whether that was really true, so I looked it up and was surprised to find that the actual city of Seattle does not quite surpass Alaska, so I thought I'd share.
But again, my post was meant merely as a factual point of order. I'm staying out of the political conversation (though I do find it entertaining to read).
Seems like this an the Obama/Ayes stories have about equal risk. Anyone who laughs off the story about their horse, while seriously telling you how significant the opponents issues are is pretty hypocritical. If either of those stories end up having real meat to them, it could easily decide the election.
.
I agree. The Obama/Ayers story is still not done. I'm interested to see what comes out of the looking into the paperwork of the education foundation that Obama chaired.
What a wierd day for news though. There's some really crazy stuff coming out about Palin now.
Firing those who were against her when she was mayor, her own pastor problems, that she was almost recalled as mayor, her involvement with Ted STevens' 527, her maybe/maybe not membership with the AIP, that she wasn't always against earmarks or the "bridge to nowhere", connections to Jack Abramoff, McCain campaign trying to stall the "troopergate" investigation. It's too much to keep up with.
This is quickly becoming bizarre.
And I stand corrected on the population of the City of Seattle. My mistake.
Comments
http://www.tmz.com/tmz_main_video?titleid=1764145077
I'm sorry, but this stuff really cracks me up, coming from either side.
http://newsminer.com/news/2008/aug/31/s ... where-dur/
And this is kinda sad, but it is what politics in America has come to:
http://townhall.com/blog/g/9b3375c7-6a2 ... 67282a1ce1
You can find just as many idiots on the right wing blogosphere.
And I'll bet you that more right-wing blog-readers know about that "baby bump" issue than left-wing blog-readers. I had to learn about it from you.
...
The "she was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it" seems to have a little bit of MSM traction though.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 647965.ece
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories
Generally, we should leave politicians (and other celebrities) private lives out of the professional sphere so long as the person makes some effort to keep them separate. E.g. Cheney's daughter's sexual preference was reasonably off limits. In Palin's case, the GOP eagerly politicized her decision to carry one child to term. One can make a convincing argument that in the case of Palin her personal life, as it relates to abortion issues specifically, is already intentionally in the public eye.
Of course, here's the guy who so many on the right think is weak, elitist, and morally bankrupt responding to this news.
FWIW, when you talk about morals voters, I think this might be an issue. Morals voters are people of absolutes. Abortion is always wrong, premarital sex is always immoral, and stem cell research always destroys a soul. What's going to matter, isn't how the bloggers respond, how the candidates respond (so long as Obama/Biden stay respectful), or what the press does. What's going to matter is how the "moral majority" voters, who Palin was an obvious olive branch to, respond.
You never know how things are gonna turn out, I guess.
Regarding your concepts of absolutes, as A Christian I actually strongly believe in absolute truth and absolutes. It is interesting that the Jews said that if you had sex with a woman to whom you were not married, you had committed adultery. You then had to pay sacrifices for your sin. Yet Jesus upped the bar. He said that if you even so much as looked at a woman with lust in your heart, you had committed adultery in your heart. Yet he died for that sin and thanks to Grace, all one need do is ask sincerely "with a repentant heart" for forgiveness and it is granted, permanently. "70 x 7"
I boil it down to this: All of life is about "why".
The Bradley effect is not as relevant in (modern) presidential campaigns, because of the Electoral College, as it is in local elections. In states where overt racism is alive and well - GA, SC, NC, TN, AL, MS, etc - the Democratic candidates have not fared well and probably have no reasonable expectation of that changing. In the more progressive coast states where Democrats have done well and reasonably expect to win, a few point swing because of covert racism is not likely to change the outcome of that state. CA, for example, is currently polling about 55%D/40%R/5%U.
I think the one state where this is relevant is Ohio. Ohio is a very split state, with 4 large cities that lean Democrat, and the rest of the state is fairly conservative and covert racism is not uncommon. The split is nearly 50/50, as evidenced by the last few elections in that state, and is currently polling around 45%D/44%R/11%U. If, on November 4th, Obama needs to win Ohio to win and is polling at those margins, then the Bradley effect probably delivers McCain to the white house. However, if Obama can convince Floridans that he's not an Muslim Arab Communist, Ohio becomes irrelevant and Obama is our next president.
She's a pure pandering move to women and conservatives. Many of the women I know, both liberal and conservative feel this way.
Her experience as much as Republicans would like to say is better than Obama's, is laughable. Here's someone who didn't even know what the Vice President's job was a month ago.
Which it should be brought up, besides being there in case the Prez keels over, is to preside over the senate. Does her executive experience help her prepare for that?
Now that it has been shown that the pregnancy scandal is not true, I think it seriously calls into question her judgment. The fact that her water broke and she still insisted on staying to give a speech when she was 1 month premature with a down syndrome child? I have a really hard time believing that her doctor told her to get on the plane, much less allowed her to stick around for 8-10 hours and give a speech before coming home. If she'd told the airline that her water had broken, they would not have allowed her on the plane. Seems to me that she felt giving a speech was more important than the health of her child.
The trooper issue will dog her the whole election and the fact that McCain barely vetted her at all and never even had a conversation or interview with her about being VP I think seriously calls his judgment into question.
So, it was a poor choice and I'm pretty happy with it.
And I like that it's McCain's camp denying that she was ever involved with them. She has yet to make a statement about it herself.
And Kerry didn't even have to worry about the bradley effect.
I think of polls as taking a snapshot of the score in a football game at a particular time. And we all know how predictive that can be.
And the game doesn't even officially start until after both conventions are over. 8)
Heh, heh. Which is like saying Obama thinks there are 57 states.
http://www.floppingaces.net/2008/08/29/ ... -the-truth
But since the convention has just started and she has really JUST left the finish line, it'll be fun to follow!
Man-o-man, this is the most fun election I have ever witnessed.
I've been on the jury on two very technical and long trials. In both cases I thought the defendant was doomed when the prosecution was halfway through their case. In both cases, when all was said and done, I went with the defendant.
I've seen responses on both sides of the issues that have come up so far and, once sifting through the BS from both sides, she looks stronger than ever. Joe sixpack will eventually get to hear this stuff out. It is THEN that we can be sure of what these things will mean.
I'm quite excited about it. She is starting to look like a quarterback in a pickle, and everyone is blaming her for being there. But sometimes the quarterback threads a needle and throws a touchdown pass.
IOW, adversity is the fodder from which TRUE excellence grows and maks it'self evident.
As we say at work, "It's not a problem. It is an opportunity." We'll see in this case.
Here: http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/0 ... son-chart/
Some is really funny.
Some is dead serious.
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/tamc ... ccain.aspx
Alaska: 670,053
Seattle: 582,454
The other half of the sentence is also incorrect. She took office on Dec. 4, 2006, so that would be 21 months.
http://www.cafepress.com/smith288#stick ... ns&magnets
:roll:
She is TOAST!
/sarcasm
The press has jumped the shark with her. I am waiting for them to call for a "no knock" entry into her home to see if she's been pulling the labels off her pillows.
The press is walking a very thin line here. This could backfire horrendously on them if they cross it. It is really starting to appear as if they already have...
Oh no! Think of the ramifications, the press might not be re-elected!
Seems like this an the Obama/Ayes stories have about equal risk. Anyone who laughs off the story about their horse, while seriously telling you how significant the opponents issues are is pretty hypocritical. If either of those stories end up having real meat to them, it could easily decide the election.
We already covered this a bit, but there is exactly one job in this country that offers the kind of experience needed to be president; that job is being president. Well, VP is pretty good experience as well I think. Everybody else will lack foreign experience or executive experience. And if you don't, that means your a career politician. It's best if neither campaign focuses on this.
That one didn't turn out to well, so they are trying again with Todd Palin:http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/the-alaska-divi.html
One of the comments there says it all:
Personally I like the Snohomish county comparison better!
SnohoCo: 686,300
So she's really the Mayor of Everett, Lynnwood and Goldbar wrapped into a nice, tight package. I feel much better about her experience now.
I appreciate the humor (it actually did make me laugh) but where I was going was that if people get the feeling she is being unfairly bashed on, it could turn them in their favor. Keep in mind, I'm talking about the ones already on the fence. And of course the 18 million.
Florida and Ohio were both polling with tiny advantages to Kerry the day before, but were not won by Kerry. Lots of votes swinging the other way.
Dave Leip's Atlas is useful because he tracks contested states (<2% advantage) separately. He's currently showing Obama "up" 259 - 183, meaning McCain will need to nearly sweep the battleground states.
But again, my post was meant merely as a factual point of order. I'm staying out of the political conversation (though I do find it entertaining to read).
I agree. The Obama/Ayers story is still not done. I'm interested to see what comes out of the looking into the paperwork of the education foundation that Obama chaired.
What a wierd day for news though. There's some really crazy stuff coming out about Palin now.
Firing those who were against her when she was mayor, her own pastor problems, that she was almost recalled as mayor, her involvement with Ted STevens' 527, her maybe/maybe not membership with the AIP, that she wasn't always against earmarks or the "bridge to nowhere", connections to Jack Abramoff, McCain campaign trying to stall the "troopergate" investigation. It's too much to keep up with.
This is quickly becoming bizarre.
And I stand corrected on the population of the City of Seattle. My mistake.