Dow down to 4.4% annually since inception!

edited October 2008 in The Economy
The Dow is now down to an average 4.4% annually since inception. (At 9127 now). Excludes dividends, but those are less common nowadays. CDs at 4+% are now way better than stocks historically.

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  • Markor wrote:
    The Dow is now down to an average 4.4% annually since inception. (At 9127 now). Excludes dividends, but those are less common nowadays. CDs at 4+% are now way better than stocks historically.

    IIRC you have to pay a dividend to trade on the NYSE, and traditionally only NYSE stocks were in the dow - until Microsoft - but I think that was one of the reasons Microsoft added a dividend
  • Fun Fact: the Dow topped out at 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007 - exactly one year ago today.
  • I spoke too soon. Now it's down to an average of 4.3% annually. (At 8905 now.) 37% off last year's peak.
  • If I remember correctly, when you don't count the run-up over the last 20 years, the annualized return is closer to 1.7%. Maybe we're just working our way back to the long term trend line?
  • Scotsman wrote:
    If I remember correctly, when you don't count the run-up over the last 20 years, the annualized return is closer to 1.7%. Maybe we're just working our way back to the long term trend line?
    On 10/1/1928, at the inception of the modern iteration of the Dow w/ 30 companies, the index stood at 239.43.

    On 10/1/1985, exactly 57 years later, the index stood at 1,340.95.

    That's an annualized rate of return of 3.07%.

    10/1/1985 to 10/1/2007 (14,087.55)
    Annualized rate of return: 11.28%

    If the 1928-1985 rate of 3.07% were extended to today, the Dow would be at approximately 2,700.
  • Superimpose the Dow onto the national debt chart to see where the money came from that fueled the run-up since 1985. The country's future was sold to win elections. The Constitution has a major loophole.
  • There seem to be 2 types of investors:

    * traditional type - invests in companies that have good fundamentals, is willing to stick with the stock for a few years

    * flipper type - invests in any stock that he believes he can flip to another flipper in a few weeks/months, basically a pyramid scheme

    It seems that 2nd type rules these days.
  • Markor wrote:
    Superimpose the Dow onto the national debt chart to see where the money came from that fueled the run-up since 1985. The country's future was sold to win elections. The Constitution has a major loophole.

    The Constitution says nothing about the private economy - only about the roles of the federal government. There's a very good reason for that. The founding fathers didn't believe the federal government had a useful role intervening in the private sector. Heck, they didn't even originate an income tax as part of it, that only happened in 1909.
  • What I was implying is that the Constitution should not allow the country to be in debt indefinitely, or by any amount; otherwise political parties will use public debt to win elections. Like the GOP has done in spades, starting with Reagan. Imagine what better shape the US would be in today if the Constitution imposed $ & time limits to national debt. Imagine if Bush had to pare down debt instead of increase it, because Reagan and his dad ran it up too fast/much. The typical reasoning against any debt limit is that we may need to borrow in times of emergency. But now it's obvious that the greater danger to the US is a continuous string of "emergencies" (Vietnam War, need to win arms race against Russia, Gulf War, OIL (Operation Iraq Liberation), need to win new arms race against Russia, need to bail out any rich person losing money, etc.). The GOP took 1984 to heart and it's killing us.
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