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Independent YOY Inventory Numbers

SeattleMooseSeattleMoose
edited May 2007 in Seattle Real Estate
I have been keeping a spreadsheet of listings (from the same site...Glover RE) to gauge inventory trends. I update the spreadsheet weekly for King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. I started 5-7-06. Well I finally have my first YOY "for sale" inventory listings:

May-06 to May-07

King Co - 46% increase
Pierce Co - 56% increase
Snohomish - 55% increase

With inventory about 50% higher across the board one has to wonder just who all these sellers are? Especially if the economy is so good and there "is no bubble in Seattle". So what has changed from a year ago to cause such a huge runup in inventory?

CA Equity Locusts who are already sick of Seattle?
Laid off RE industry personnel?
The laid off Zune team?
Aborted condo conversions?
Bio threat in Ballard?
Empty builder tract homes?
Flippers/Infestors?
Long time residents wanting to cash in at the top?
FBs?

My guess....the last 3.

Let's see...median prices falling everywhere but Seattle, inventory exploding across the country, credit tightening, shaggy lending practices being exposed daily, and lenders dropping like leaves in the fall...

The only logical outcome of all of this is.....prices have nowhere to go but up....buy now or be priced out forever!!! Seattle is SPECIAL!!! When everywhere else in the country has dropped in price everyone will want to move here!!! And that means more demand which means.....

Comments

  • bilirubenbiliruben
    Nice job, Moose. My boy loves your gig at the games, btw.

    What kinda detail did you collect?
  • klioklio
    Now these are only my loose observations, but there seems to be a lot of homes back on the market which previously sold in the last 3 years (investors/flippers) especially a good handful which actually had a previous sell last summer/fall. People trying to get out before Seattle joins the nation.

    Redfin redesigned site make it really easy to literally scroll through the map search while displaying all relevant info. I usually check it ever few days to quickly view price & last sold info and there seems to be a pattern, or at least a noticeable percentage: bulk previously sold in last 3-4 years, majority asking $150-$200 more than previous sale.

    here are some good ones...

    my favorite which others have posted too
    MLS#: 27062563 (04/14/2006 $560,000... Price: $650,000)- that must have been some surgical demo work for the $100K increase.

    a nervous contractor?
    MLS#: 27067402
    Price: $639,950
    01/06/2005 $410,000

    mmmm Phinney for over half a million. Lovely.
    MLS#: 27053760
    Price: $635,000
    09/15/2006 $525,000
    01/26/2000 $319,950

    this one more typical. Not a dump, has some charm, but $240K increase for a Home Depot pedestal sink?
    MLS#: 27072061
    Price: $579,000
    07/14/2006 $335,000

    and the list goes on...
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    I have been keeping a spreadsheet of listings (from the same site...Glover RE) to gauge inventory trends. I update the spreadsheet weekly for King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. I started 5-7-06. Well I finally have my first YOY "for sale" inventory listings:

    Moose - Good points. I can probably save you some time on your spreadsheet. The data for those 3 counties is available from housingtracker.net and individual counties here from the NWMLS
  • SeattleMooseSeattleMoose
    DJ...thanx for the link. Enjoy your posts.

    The whole point of me keeping "my own" data is to keep an independent trend analysis via a local RE website (Glover). I am well aware they don't have ALL the listings. It is 'trend" that is important to me.

    While the "industry provided" data is the "official" data...another set of data from a totally different angle can help expose any attempt by the "mainstream" to "cook the books".

    And now a tribute to "Neil" over at Ben's blog.....

    Got Moosemunch? :P
  • JazenJazen
    Can realtors be considered flippers/investors? I mean, sometimes I see realtor owned homes for sale and just wonder if they bought it to flip it?
  • JazenJazen
    Can realtors be considered flippers/investors? I mean, sometimes I see realtor owned homes for sale and just wonder if they bought it to flip it?
  • georgegeorge
    If a used car salesmen buys a lemon one day for $500 and sells it the next day for $5,000, do you call him a flipper? Or just a used car salesman?

    I don't know the answer, but I do know the same rule would apply here.
    Jazen wrote:
    Can realtors be considered flippers/investors? I mean, sometimes I see realtor owned homes for sale and just wonder if they bought it to flip it?
  • AlanAlan
    http://www.mirru.com/making-money-flipping-cars.php
  • JazenJazen
    I guess my point is that they could be another source of inflation. As they don't have to pay closing costs or get a discount or the realtor fees either. If they are bullish on the real estate market, then they just figure it's as good as a 10-20% investment for a year. I mean, look at Redfin, some of the houses around here, have gone up more that 50-60 percent in 2 years! That's outrageous.
  • georgegeorge
    1) Predictions for inventory in fall 2007? (and why?)

    2) When does Seattle reach the magic turning point - 6 months supply +?

    (condos + SFH)
  • JazenJazen
    Dunno, but it does seem like the seattle market is definitely behind the curve, houses ARE selling for asking price or just selling period (compared to the rest of the nation). So I think by winter actually will be the first real slowdown, right now inventory is building, yes, but houses are also selling as well, which is, to say the least, incredibly stupid. But, enclosed is a good article about the current stock market by Jim Jubak. I think similarities can be drawn between the stock market and housing, in the "people are greedy stupid pigs" sense, don't you?
    For bears, being right still hurts
    Another one regarding cheap debt, sound familiar?
    How cheap debt overinflates stocks
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