3.8% Unemployment Rate in WA State, construction up 900 jobs

edited June 2007 in The Economy
State's jobless rate falls to 4.4% — a new low
By Drew DeSilver
Seattle Times business reporter

Unemployment in Washington fell to a record-low 4.4 percent in April, the third straight monthly decline this year, the state Employment Security Department said today.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate declined from March's 4.6 percent, which had tied the previous record low set in November 1999.The rate for the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett metropolitan area dove even lower, to 3.8 percent from the 4.4 percent recorded in March.

Payroll employment, measured in a separate survey from the unemployment rate, grew by 2,900 jobs in April, up from a revised 700-job loss in March. More than 3.2 million people are now working in Washington state.

The construction industry continued to defy the housing slowdown, adding 900 jobs in April. Administrative and support services gained 1,600 jobs, and bars and restaurants added 500.

Manufacturing employment declined, however, mainly due to 900 jobs lost in food processing, and several other key industrial sectors were flat in the month.

The record is based on the current series of unemployment statistics which began in 1976.

Comments

  • Actually the 3.8% is in the Seattle Region. The good news is that the economy in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett area is actually improving instead of slowing down. You can make your own conclusions, yet this cant be bad for the Residential or Commerical RE mtk...if anything moderate the blow to the RE mkt.
  • The unemployment rate hitting a record low is typical before a recession. This area was seeing mass layoffs by November 2000 after the previous record low in November 1999.
  • mike2 wrote:
    The unemployment rate hitting a record low is typical before a recession. This area was seeing mass layoffs by November 2000 after the previous record low in November 1999.

    :lol:

    Maybe every time someone posts something we should have a bot programed to post a reply that says "_______ is typical before a recession."

    Increase in condo sales is typical before a recession.

    (Yeah, right)

    Low unemployment is typical before a recession.

    (Oh, sure! Of course, more employed people is terrible for the economy)

    A steep rise in rents is typical before a recession.

    (Whatever)

    A high # of Meshugy posts is typical before a recession.

    etc, etc....so funny.
  • Not everything is typical before a recession though. Who knows, unemployment could drop further still.

    In 5/1979 unemployment was at a cyclic low of 5.6, 1 year later it was up to 7.5. Same happened in 1990 to 1991 5.2 > 6.9, and again in 12/2000 3.9 up to 5.7 by 12/2001.

    Sorry you didn't know that unemployment rate is a lagging indicator to economic growth.


    Mike2: Are you being sarcastic, dude?

    Meshugy: I don't even know anymore.

    Is this what is happening here?
  • Mike -
    Pictures say a thousand words
    Perhaps this will help explain it to Shug and Finance.

    unrate20070309pm9_sm.png

    Oh, and the gray bars are "recessions".
    Low unemployment is typical before a recession.

    (Oh, sure! Of course, more employed people is terrible for the economy)

    Shug - so who's wrong now? You need to change your user name to "pnwed"
  • Unemployment is a lagging growth indicator, yet is still declining...better than a sharp stick in the eye.

    However, a lower unemployment rate also is a leading indicator of business spending (on labor) since businesses spend a considerable amount to increase labor in an organization. They dont do such hiring lightly and is an inelastic event...as in they cut other expenses before laying off people, usually do it as a last resort.

    My theory is that much of the increase is in govt jobs within the Seattle region (since the new WA state budget just passed...thus expanded state spending). There was also an increase of 900 in construction...which means there are more than enough jobs available in this category.
  • I'm starting to understand why Meshugy says the market is stable.

    Either he's wrap-around insanely sarcastic to the point of being the embodiment of everything he doesn't believe, or he lacks a basic understanding of economics.

    Since he spends his time here copying and pasting stuff and drawing simple conclusions... well, still it could be either.
  • Meshugy, it's been a few days, have you had time to copy and paste an article, any article, that supports your claim that unemployment is unlikely to be at record lows 12 months before a recession?
  • The May #'s are out, and while they're still good they did rise a bit from what *may* turn out to be a cyclic low.

    Washington's unemployment rate increased slightly in May, to 4.6 percent, from April's record low of 4.4 percent.

    In Seattle, the jobless rate inched up to 4.0 percent in May, from 3.8 percent in April.


    http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/ ... obs13.html
  • Mike2 - In Seattle we are at such historical lows for Unemployment that it will fluctuate within a range...however there was a net increase of 3200 jobs (along with 400 more contruction jobs) in the city of Seattle.

    Over the past several months I have been working with recruiters to get a FTE postion (which I got a sweet job downtown starting in Aug, as Im currently a contract worker). Several sources told me that the Unemployment rate for Professional Workers is about 1% - 2% (which gave me significant salary leverage, as I got the max salary in the pay range allowed + the 6 month tuition waiting period waived saving me $10,000).

    From the same article Mike2 posted above: In Washington, employers added 6,400 new seasonally adjusted jobs in May. Industries with the largest job gains were professional and business services, with 1,900 new jobs; construction, up 1,200; wholesale trade, up 800; and education and health services, up 800 new jobs.

    The largest decline was reported in information, down 400 jobs.

    About 145,200 people (not seasonally adjusted) are unemployed and seeking work in Washington.

    Seattle added 3,200 new seasonally adjusted jobs in May. Among the strongest sectors were manufacturing, up 800; education and health services, up 600; and leisure and hospitality, up 600. Construction also climbed, by 400 jobs.
  • Private nonfarm payrolls rose a scant 58,000 – the weakest increase since November 2004. The year-over-year increase in February private payrolls was 1.5%, down from a peak of 2.4% reached in March 2006 and the slowest increase since September 2004. Similarly, the Household Survey of nonagricultural employment was weak. In February, the Household Survey showed a net decrease of 283,000 private sector wage and salary workers outside of household employment with that and the in-home ATM not filling up as fast these days as it has in recent years. The excess supply of houses has led to a sharp year-over-year decline in the median price of a single-family home. In January, the year-over-year change in the median blended price of a single-family home was minus 3.6%, a larger contraction in the price than occurred in 1990, when the economy was in a recession and S&Ls were closing as fast as sub prime mortgage lenders are now. The decline in house prices along with the explosion in negative amortizing mortgages implies that the growth in homeowner equity will slow. In the fourth quarter 2006, the year-over-year change in homeowner equity was 4.05% - the slowest growth since 1997.
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